My Options Play

[iceman1]

Quote from iceman1:

CME

bluehorseshoe loves CME

gentlemen-- suggest you start your engines and wait for the flag to enter calls on this one - I believe a st bottom is being put in this week. Remember - it's been a falling knife - so be nimble and don't get burned on a candlestick!

I am long some cmj LL (dec 360c) - looking to spread - only Q is what strike and how many.

looking for target of 355 by Friday - then we'll review the tape etc.- maybe it can trade back to 365 - thereafter

downside risk- 10-12 points


Ice

wow--- CME- hope some of you got in on the "free" money.

sometimes I even amaze myself with my accuracy - but I was doing the same thing back in the 90s- always accurate- often early- rarely wrong)

what a great trading call if I do say so - and to think some guys charge a fortune for stuff like that- but on the famous multi_option thread- one can get it for free by just reading my posts. (sorry for tooting my horn too loud on this one and the VLO/QCOM/BBY and OVTI trades I posted earlier- but I can't help myself)

--- too bad we can't bat 100% in options trading- and that we still miss great trades all the time - and still make dumb moves.

I hate to get too excited since that is the kiss of death--- but damn bros I am looking forward to some great trading in 2006 - and hoping the market stays active like of late! I am going to be posting on my (icemans') Journal thread - so I have accountability for my trades- and so I keep better focused. Lookng forward to a VERY profitable 2006.

bonne chance to all option traders in 2006 - !

Ice


p.s. remember I said to keep an eye on PD for a great short trade entry - all coming soon to a theatre nearby- I am looking to enter the 150/145 or 140p next week depending on how expiration shakes out !

 

[iceman1]

Quote from riskarb:

That looks very solid after seeing the chart. Exchanges[cme, cbot] are trading at incredible P/Es, something to keep in mind. I would keep a close eye on the cme and cbot when trading this bear risk -reversal.

yep--

might have some nice downside left in CME

what do you tihnk r/arb? You looking for a short entry ?

Ice

 

[iceman1]

Quote from hajimow:

not a good idea - AAPL is the last stock I'd sell naked calls on given the current strong uptrend. JMHO

why not sell Dec and buy Jan or vice versa- maybe someone can elaborate on said calendar strategy as I didn't run a model
Thanks for the input.

Lets assume that AAPL will be 78 by Dec option expiry date.

I consider selling Call safer than buying Put and here is why:
If you buy PUT, your money is gone so you have lost all your put money.

If you sell Call, you will be short at 75 while the stock is at 78. You have got 1.2 from premium so you have lost only $3-$1.2=$1.8 per share. I just guess you can be patient and cover your short at $75 or lower. I used the same strategy in my HD trade. I got short at $42.5 and I covered the next monday at $42.20. I know that if AAPL jumps to $100, you are cooked.

how did you get 78 as an "assumption"? What if aapl is 82.50 by expiration- that is doable on this one- no? Not saying it will happen- but ??

AAPL is no HD?

For example- what if it gets bought out on Monday @90- or rumors circulate that it is in play?

OR what if it gets a slew of major downgrades into next week -- - and it trades to 67.50- that range would not be far-fetched for AAPL.


I

 

[DblArrow]

Quote from iceman1:



sometimes I even amaze myself with my accuracy - but I was doing the same thing back in the 90s- always accurate- often early- rarely wrong)

Are you the same ICE that was on the talkstoxx forum for a bit?

Make 'em pretty, Chris

 

[iceman1]

Quote from DblArrow:

Are you the same ICE that was on the talkstoxx forum for a bit?

Make 'em pretty, Chris

not me - but I used to be on SI.com in the mid-90s

 

[iceman1]

Quote from iceman1:

p.s. remember I said to keep an eye on PD for a great short trade entry - all coming soon to a theatre nearby- I am looking to enter the 150/145 or 140p next week depending on how expiration shakes out !

did not enter PD yet - gonna wait until post-expiration

anyone else in puts or short from last weeks highs??

 

[iceman1]

Quote from iceman1:



12-08-05 06:34 PM


b.t.w tomorrow I plan on maybe adding some AAPL puts- maybe the Jan 75p or perhaps Dec 75p - as I am almost certain AAPL is going lower into next week's expiry with a st target of <71. But --- like Maverick74 has posted - the smart trade was long... and maybe still is. We'll see.

AAPL is down- lucky guess

will it see <72?

p.s. is this thread dead? :eek:

Ice

 

[wabrew]

Iceman -- I do not think this thread is dead. I am probability one of many lurkers who read and learn but do not post often.

I really want to buy SBUX Dec 32 1/2 puts here for a two day trade ( 31.60 puts are .90 bid and 1.00 offered). No guts.

Is there any greek that calculates the probability of a stk going back to strike on expiration date?

 

[cnms2]

Option's delta approximates the probability of that option to expire in the money.

Quote from wabrew:
...
Is there any greek that calculates the probability of a stk going back to strike on expiration date?

 

[iceman1]

Quote from iceman1:

AAPL is down- lucky guess

will it see <72?

p.s. is this thread dead? :eek:

Ice

damn-- another good call

AAPL = <71

VOILA!

I'm in the zone- feels like 1990s -- really looking forward to 2006 -just added a lot more cash to all accounts.

Will post all 2006 trades and "calls' on icemans option trading Journal thread - beginning 1/2/06- so stay tuned!



Ice