My Options Play

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Quote from Multioption:

Now, I'm so sure, barring a gap-down, that BBY is going to shoot up tomorrow. Too bad I don't send in orders before market opens. Watch out, the stock is headed to 52, then 54.

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you think BBY is going higher tomorrow"? It's possible, I guess - but I got the missive below from Briefing.com on Nov 30th:

11-30-05

BBY GameStop warning reinforces Goldman' view that Best Buy will track to low end of guidance (48.75 )

Goldman Sachs says GameStop's (GME 34.99) preannouncement of a JanQ sales shortfall on insufficient Xbox 360 supply is consistent with the firm's view that BBY's Q3 (Nov) sales trends will track toward the low end of 3%-5% guidance. Post BBY's rally, Goldman believes the price discounts better news and would not be aggressive near term"


however- it certainly could shoot up higher- but right now it looks like <47.50 "might" be in the cards by expiry.

Still

+ March 53
+ Jan 50c
- Dec 50c
 
Quote from novel20:

Iceman1, are you still holding your AAPL puts?
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yes --- but I have short (put) premium also -- sold the front 65p for 1.40 -- covered those - and today tried to cover the Jan 65 puts (sold for 2.73) --- but the offer never got <1- was planning on rolling (selling) into Jan 67.50p -

b.t.w tomorrow I plan on maybe adding some AAPL puts- maybe the Jan 75p or perhaps Dec 75p - as I am almost certain AAPL is going lower into next week's expiry with a st target of <71. But --- like Maverick74 has psoted - the smart trade was long... and maybe still is. We'll see.

I still look for AAPL to get cracked in January - just a hunch that we will see upper 40s-lower 50s AAPL. The Q is will it be before or after it trades to >80.

:D:D


did you get in any CME calls ?
 
Quote from hajimow:

What do you guys think of selling naked Call AAPL 75 Dec @ $1.25?
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not a good idea - AAPL is the last stock I'd sell naked calls on given the current strong uptrend. JMHO

why not sell Dec and buy Jan or vice versa- maybe someone can elaborate on said calendar strategy as I didn't run a model.
 
not a good idea - AAPL is the last stock I'd sell naked calls on given the current strong uptrend. JMHO

why not sell Dec and buy Jan or vice versa- maybe someone can elaborate on said calendar strategy as I didn't run a model

Thanks for the input. Lets assume that AAPL will be 78 by Dec option expiry date. I consider selling Call safer than buying Put and here is why:
If you buy PUT, your money is gone so you have lost all your put money.
If you sell Call, you will be short at 75 while the stock is at 78. You have got 1.2 from premium so you have lost only $3-$1.2=$1.8 per share. I just guess you can be patient and cover your short at $75 or lower. I used the same strategy in my HD trade. I got short at $42.5 and I covered the next monday at $42.20. I know that if AAPL jumps to $100, you are cooked.
 
Trying something somewhat different in 3 to 5 day swing trades. What is amazing is the high degree of accuracy. Traded XTO AH and made $500, GM LX and made $200, XQN AD and made $125, went the opposite way and traded XQN MD and made $400 all in the span of around 2 days on average.
My long term trades have not done as well. Lost $500 on NUS XW, ADQ MH (adsk) (in at $1.90) another loser but, stock dropped over $1 today, and time left so, it could still turn around or loss become smaller.
UGO MC (sgtl) (in at $2.00) and down somewhat. DLB CW (dlb) up about $0.60 per contract or $300. Also, have BMD (stock play) on my 401K 200 sh@7.36
Anyone tried swing trading in 3-5 days in options? It seems to be better compared to longer term trades.
 
Quote from smallfil:


Anyone tried swing trading in 3-5 days in options? It seems to be better compared to longer term trades.
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Just check what the major indices are doing. Based on this, it is easier to determine if a short or a longer holding time frame is appropiate.

Good luck.
 
Optionpro007,

Thanks. I have not used the major indices and based my decisions on the stock charts and technical indicators alone. I'll definitely look into that aspect of analyzing my options trades. I am still working on my entry point and I am probably off in my timing as far as longer term trades go but, my timing on short 3-5 day trades seem to be okay.
Sticking just to directional trades buying puts and calls depending on where the stock is going. Not doing too badly and not making a killing either!!! I am happy though, learning a lot trading options and
still studying.
 
Quote from Multioption:

Here again!

Today: I got some contracts of AFL Feb06 50 Put @$3.60/contract. Will re-evaluate the position if/when stock climbs to 47.25.

IVGN Dec 65 Put bought at $1.35 and held for two days was sold at $1.25 for 0.10 loss. I told onlookers on Yahoo messenger that the stock is in its last leg of the bearish move and might change direction anytime, so we weren't surprised when it failed to drop to 62 as projected!

My fine tuned approach captured KOSP as well as many other stocks listed under K but options were too expensive and I didnt want to do Butterflies/credit spreads to avoid tying up capital, so I let the trades slide!

Now, I'm so sure, barring a gap-down, that BBY is going to go higher tomorrow. Too bad I don't send in orders before market opens. Watch out, the stock is headed to 52, then 54.

I closed out AX Dec 55 Call at a profit yesterday before it nose-dived. My training stop which was necessitated by experience in previous picks was triggered, so I bailed out....hope one of the Yahoo messenger onlookers here noticed that AX climbed back to 55 as projected? The current bearish outlook is dangerous 'cause it is not yet established.

Too many stocks for options plays on my watch list. Will keep you posted.

I'm working behind the scene to develop one-fit-all-approach for directional trades. I have an approach that captures just the BIG trends but with disadvantages: it captures 1-2 trades per month, and manual work involved is nerve breaking! However, I'm working on a system that captures intraday trend within the daily trend, and experience so far is fascinating!

Account is at 11K - a far cry from December goal. I won't lose my capital!



Will be back!
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  • No more live trades for easy confirmation?
  • Can you be trusted?
  • Your record of confirmed trades is dismal.
 
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