My option trades

Quote from qqqoptions:

40% OTM and two days to expiry would be the equivalent to a lotto ticket, except the payout on the lotto ticket is much higher.

:)
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Not really. GMCR's 11/10/11 earnings miss caused stock to crater from 67 to 40, a 40% decline.

Yesterday GMCR closed at 50. A 40% decline would have took stock to 30. The puts were trading at 4 cents a contract, so GMCR merely had to go to 29.96 to break even.

It was not implausible to see a >40% decline. 2 days to expiration is a good thing if one was bearish on the stock and wanted to play the earnings.
 
Quote from flipside21:

Not really. GMCR's 11/10/11 earnings miss caused stock to crater from 67 to 40, a 40% decline.

Yesterday GMCR closed at 50. A 40% decline would have took stock to 30. The puts were trading at 4 cents a contract, so GMCR merely had to go to 29.96 to break even.

It was not implausible to see a >40% decline. 2 days to expiration is a good thing if one was bearish on the stock and wanted to play the earnings.
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You have just described a black swan event. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

"The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept that an event is a surprise (to the observer) and has a major impact. After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight."

:)
 
Quote from qqqoptions:

You have just described a black swan event
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Fat tails occur more often than suggested by normal distributions. This is why distant volatility is so friggin expensive now, especially in a market influenced by the Fed.
 
I'm playing it way too safe.....should have gone with the condor on GMCR yesterday, and today I had lnkd 115/120 weekly call spread set up screen....All I did was watched and these two high risk are paying big time.

So here I am with my safe play on TRMB calls, where I am so sure that it will guide higher like it has done in the past couple quarters and there it is, Q2 guidance higher as expected. And there's the shares in AH, up to $54.30 as of this reply up about $1.08. Of course, TRMB will probably make a nice run tomorrow morning as it always does, and I'll probably be out with a small but solid profit tomorrow or a small loss at worst. Have fun with LNKD, will update on TRMB tomorrow.
 
Quote from ryanpatrick:

I'm playing it way too safe.....should have gone with the condor on GMCR yesterday, and today I had lnkd 115/120 weekly call spread set up screen....All I did was watched and these two high risk are paying big time.

So here I am with my safe play on TRMB calls, where I am so sure that it will guide higher like it has done in the past couple quarters and there it is, Q2 guidance higher as expected. And there's the shares in AH, up to $54.30 as of this reply up about $1.08. Of course, TRMB will probably make a nice run tomorrow morning as it always does, and I'll probably be out with a small but solid profit tomorrow or a small loss at worst. Have fun with LNKD, will update on TRMB tomorrow.
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TRMB better move as the neutral straddle went out >$5.
 
I had a 110 120 vertical on lnkd... I just hope it goes higher tomorrow.. but should still break even at the worst


Have a strangle on MTD... Will see how that plays out...
 
Quote from babutime:
I had a 110 120 vertical on lnkd... I just hope it goes higher tomorrow.. but should still break even at the worst.
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babutime ..... I noticed you seem to post after earnings the position you allegedly have. Your previous fishy post was the GMCR trade posted at 04:06 PM, I even had to correct you on the strike because your quotes were so far fetched.

I recommend posting the trades more promptly, and before the market closes.

:)
 
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