My option trades

[babutime]

Quote from ryanpatrick:



For today, I have my eyes on LNKD, ROVI, and TRMB....Let me know if there are other good ones I might have missed.

AIG seems good on the upside.

HAIN has mostly gone up after earnings so long the stock would be good

KFT nearing almost a decade long high here...

MTD has been on a range for a while, might break out? This might be a good trade for you falcon, the vol is priced right and a straddle might just be worth it...

ROVI I'm not sure about

TRMB this would be 4th straight QTR of earnings beat... you think they'll make it?

LNKD is not a vol sale... this thing will fly in either direction...

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from Rationalize:

Not marketing. Far from it, & I disagree about the binary part. They're essentially swaps for retail.

Just thinking about apparent leverage without stop slippage specifically.

The CFD provider would seem to be kind of selling vol, by taking on the slippage / gap risk.

Edit .. so thinking about how to replicate & if there's an arb there.

don't know that much about them.. I think Atticus may have traded them at one point........he may chime in here. I think their edge is in the bid/ask priced so they get their juice out of it. Anyway, don't want to go off topic.

 

[falconview]

Reading about the losses from BABU is scary stuff. I finally got out of my Condor and more or less learned how to do that, with the help of TOS help desk. Went okay except for a hiccup or two. But I sure work up a sweat when I don´t know what I´m doing. I´m going to relax for the rest of the day, as my board is clear and I´m ahead for the week. Not by much, maybe a $100 which is disappointing. But better than losing.

I think I´m going to transfer to 90 day July trades and go into STRANGLES. They seem to pay as good as this fancy four legged and two legged stuff? Without all the worrying, as it is pretty mechanical. Not the STRANGLE itself, but the selling or buying of the two sides seperately. I´ve done okay before, but not in the quantity of contracts I needed to make money. Really I prefer the STRADDLE, but the STRANGLE is cheaper to put on and I would like to work with a 10 lot. I theeeenk the commissions are cheaper that way?

I think I´ve graduated from novice, to junior amateur now?

 

[babutime]

Quote from falconview:
I think I´ve graduated from novice, to junior amateur now? [/B]

LOL!!

No you haven't. You're not even a novice. A novice knows how to work their platform well...

 

[ryanpatrick]

Quote from babutime:

AIG seems good on the upside.

ROVI I'm not sure about

TRMB this would be 4th straight QTR of earnings beat... you think they'll make it?

LNKD is not a vol sale... this thing will fly in either direction...

ROVI and LNKD, I'm reviewing both because I know of their 10% plus pops lol. LNKD will go one way or the other...

I'll take a look at AIG since I do like the chart, but I'm probably going with TRMB. TRMB has momentum....and 4 straight quarters is nothing lol, I learned that from PCLN which is close to 12-13 straight quarters now. TRMB may 55 call at $1.80 is probably my lowest risk/reward play. Prob. going with 2 calls too, playing it light and waiting for next week.

 

[jeffalvinson]

Quote from falconview:

Reading about the losses from BABU is scary stuff. I finally got out of my Condor and more or less learned how to do that, with the help of TOS help desk. Went okay except for a hiccup or two. But I sure work up a sweat when I don´t know what I´m doing. I´m going to relax for the rest of the day, as my board is clear and I´m ahead for the week. Not by much, maybe a $100 which is disappointing. But better than losing.

I think I´m going to transfer to 90 day July trades and go into STRANGLES. They seem to pay as good as this fancy four legged and two legged stuff? Without all the worrying, as it is pretty mechanical. Not the STRANGLE itself, but the selling or buying of the two sides seperately. I´ve done okay before, but not in the quantity of contracts I needed to make money. Really I prefer the STRADDLE, but the STRANGLE is cheaper to put on and I would like to work with a 10 lot. I theeeenk the commissions are cheaper that way?
I think I´ve graduated from novice, to junior amateur now?

Falcon,

Sometimes if you just think real simple on these straddles and strangles you can gain some good experience without risking the farm!
Here is what I mean:
Kraft Foods (KFT 39.69) is reporting earnings after tonight's closing bell. Let us observe what happens in the next few days
with this strangle on KFT 39.69
May 40 call at ask price of .35 (expires May 18)
May 39 put at ask price of .35 (expires May 18)
Total debit per pair: .70
Kraft will not have to move fair after earning tonight to overcome
that debit (.70), so lets watch and observe this straddle in the next few weeks to see if we can make +25% (.88 for the pair).

Jeff

 

[ryanpatrick]

Quote from jeffalvinson:

Falcon,

Sometimes if you just think real simple on these straddles and strangles you can gain some good experience without risking the farm!
Here is what I mean:
Kraft Foods (KFT 39.69) is reporting earnings after tonight's closing bell. Let us observe what happens in the next few days
with this strangle on KFT 39.69
May 40 call at ask price of .35 (expires May 18)
May 39 put at ask price of .35 (expires May 18)
Total debit per pair: .70
Kraft will not have to move fair after earning tonight to overcome
that debit (.70), so lets watch and observe this straddle in the next few weeks to see if we can make +25% (.88 for the pair).

Jeff

That's a good bet right there Jeff. As long as you hold KFT. It has an average move of 4.5% in either direction from the day after earnings up to its next option expiration date. You'll have to be crafty and jump out at the right time (+3% swing in either direction to play it safe) otherwise, the average move from after earnings until day of expiration (avg 17 days) is 2.2%. On two occasions, it flatlined by expiration. So it's not holding until expiration, I think if you are able to monitor the swings daily and play it safe, this is one of those easy money. To the downside, watch support zones, and to the upside, watch round numbers like $45 as the next point.

 

[ryanpatrick]

Put limit order to buy 2 trmb may 55 call at $1.55. current bid/ask is 1.55/1.65, I'm still double checking, so the limit order is below bid, but if it hits then oh well.

Oops, I raised my limit to $1.60 thinking it wouldn't trigger just yet, but it did. Bought 2 55 calls at total -$332.99.

 

[jeffalvinson]

Quote from ryanpatrick:

That's a good bet right there Jeff. As long as you hold KFT. It has an average move of 4.5% in either direction from the day after earnings up to its next option expiration date. You'll have to be crafty and jump out at the right time (+3% swing in either direction to play it safe) otherwise, the average move from after earnings until day of expiration (avg 17 days) is 2.2%. On two occasions, it flatlined by expiration. So it's not holding until expiration, I think if you are able to monitor the swings daily and play it safe, this is one of those easy money. To the downside, watch support zones, and to the upside, watch round numbers like $45 as the next point.

Thanks Ryan,

One of the many things I like about you is your ability to give an
excellent detailed analysis of stocks. You should have been a stock analyst for a major brokerage house.

Jeff

 

[flipside21]

Whoever bought the GMCR 30 puts made a friggin 100 fold return!!!