My option trades

[falconview]

thats a good one Jeff. More for Don Bright than Atticus though

I´m following Ryan´s debit spread in Aapl trying to figure out what he is trying to do and how. Just in case he is successful? So far, I see his trade losing.

On the question of the volatility in my reverse trade PUT scenario, I am selling the volatility, gambling that I can buy it back cheaper by the end of the day.

 

[falconview]

Have a new experiment in my own method. Long term, of 10 days or longer.

BUYING ( paper trades ) Directional bets.

BAC 1 bac May Call- 10 @.39/
1 COF April -57.5- Call @ .73/
1 GE May -20- Call @ .85/
1 JPM May 1 -45 Call @$1.67/
1 NSC April -70- Call @ $1.65/
1TYC April -55- Call @ .74/
1 USB April -32- Call @.57/
1 WFC April -34- Call @.96/

 

[falconview]

INTERESTING ON APPL

The debit spread seems to be losing for Ryan.

But a credit spread right now would win?

Sell the 580 for .64 cents ad buy the 575 for .15 cents and make .47 cents. With Appl going sideways at 584. Doubt it would move before the close in 3 hours.

 

[ryanpatrick]

Quote from falconview:

Have a new experiment in my own method. Long term, of 10 days or longer.

BUYING ( paper trades ) Directional bets.

BAC 1 bac May Call- 10 @.39/
1 COF April -57.5- Call @ .73/
1 GE May -20- Call @ .85/
1 JPM May 1 -45 Call @$1.67/
1 NSC April -70- Call @ $1.65/
1TYC April -55- Call @ .74/
1 USB April -32- Call @.57/
1 WFC April -34- Call @.96/

I was about to say that's a lot of trade in your account, but then just read that its paper trade....phew, No way I'd handle all that.

As for my real goal, finally got into it. AAPL April 21 2012 $575 put at $21.35 (1 contract $2147.95 total cost). Eventually I want to spread this one too and limit the risk possibly over the next few days. I think AAPL is done here, just some left over buying this morning. Did set up an auto stop loss at $15.00. I'll absorb about $600 loss in case the trade turns on me. Otherwise, If AAPL can jump from 540 to 600 in a week, then I'd like to see how the freefall back down will do.

 

[ryanpatrick]

Quote from falconview:

INTERESTING ON APPL

The debit spread seems to be losing for Ryan.

But a credit spread right now would win?

Sell the 580 for .64 cents ad buy the 575 for .15 cents and make .47 cents. With Appl going sideways at 584. Doubt it would move before the close in 3 hours.

That's true, but I just checked and I don't have credit spread capability yet, just sent the broker an email, hopefully I'll get approved today.

 

[ForexForex]

Quote from ryanpatrick:

Sold to open AAPL mar 580 put at 12.60, setting up that spread of 585/580 put to $1.40. $140 risk for $500 gross return. I think that should work out positive for me. I did this so I can set up an April put position in AAPL shares. Should work here. Sorry forex, just can't seem to follow the Qs like you do. I'm going to go for the kill on this trade. Not much earnings to really look at and it's just an awkward situation right now with most of these earnings still overbought. Hard to see 10% pop on overbought stocks.

I will post a paper trade on the QQQ to compare it with the AAPL 585/580 put spread, expiry March 23. Both the AAPL and QQQ spreads are OTM, as of this post.


Buy 66 put @ $0.30
Sell 65 put @ $0.12
Debit $0.18
Gross possible return $1.00 (5x the debit, the AAPL spread is 3.5x)

 

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from newwurldmn:

A risk reversal if they are different strikes, a combo or synthetic if they are the same strikes (similar to a forward with some early exercise issues)

Was just saying that to lambast ryan for using a 3 day option to express one delta view and then to cut it and then use a different option to express the opposite delta view is dumb.

If he had done it with stock (shorted AAPL, covered and then went long) it would be okay in nine ender's eyes. The only difference with ryan's trades were the gamma/theta which was a good idea as the implied vol was 34ish and the stock had realized 38 vol in straight line up. It's likely a big move would have happend again.

Do not try to state MY trading opinion.

I will note that last month you tried to criticize my observation ( derived over several years ) that the market tends to go flat at the end of monthly options week. Not every month, but easily the majority of them. This is why I don't hold your opinion in the options arena at very high value.

Two months running this has been EXACTLY what has occurred.
Friday is usually a pretty dead market. How much has the SPX changed today ? Note, after 3:30 pm, its a new ball game.

My opinion on 2 of Ryan's AAPL trades stands. No amount of bs spewing changes the underlying fundamentals of those trades. I didn't "lambast" him, I stated its horrendous strategy. Which it is.

You can cheer on the gambling, sure. Just be sure you denote that its gambling. Some gamblers make money.

 

[atticus]

Quote from Nine_Ender:

Do not try to state MY trading opinion.

I will note that last month you tried to criticize my observation ( derived over several years ) that the market tends to go flat at the end of monthly options week. Not every month, but easily the majority of them. This is why I don't hold your opinion in the options arena at very high value.

Two months running this has been EXACTLY what has occurred.
Friday is usually a pretty dead market. How much has the SPX changed today ? Note, after 3:30 pm, its a new ball game.

My opinion on 2 of Ryan's AAPL trades stands. No amount of bs spewing changes the underlying fundamentals of those trades. I didn't "lambast" him, I stated its horrendous strategy. Which it is.

You can cheer on the gambling, sure. Just be sure you denote that its gambling. Some gamblers make money.

It's not an opinion. SV > IV in apple.

WTF? The last two expirations were flat? That's some sample. Jan was over 30 peak to trough in SPX on expiration week. In-line with SPX stat-vol. AAPL's stat-vol has exceeded it's implied vol by quite a margin this week.

The obvious facts are that you lack any knowledge re: vol-markets and you don't have more than a few years experience losing money in RIMM.

F@g off. You're not welcome here. Nobody minds constructive criticism, but you're not qualified to offer any.

 

[scottandmo]

Quote from ForexForex:

I will post a paper trade on the QQQ to compare it with the AAPL 585/580 put spread, expiry March 23. Both the AAPL and QQQ spreads are OTM, as of this post.


Buy 66 put @ $0.30
Sell 65 put @ $0.12
Debit $0.18
Gross possible return $1.00 (5x the debit, the AAPL spread is 3.5x)

Those prices are for the 65/64 put spread. The 66/65 spread would cost $0.30, returning close to the 3.5x with AAPL.

 

[ForexForex]

Quote from scottandmo:

Those prices are for the 65/64 put spread. The 66/65 spread would cost $0.30, returning close to the 3.5x with AAPL.