You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
My option trades
- Thread starter ryanpatrick
- Start date
Quote from iceman1:
Wondering if anyone has opinion on NDX nearing a top.
I have been around markets in the 80s and 90 - until 2001 and have seen incessant upside that never abates until grossly "oversold" (whatever that is)
Just curious.
Further rather than play NDX is APPL a better proxy for downside if you think late March- April will see selling
Thanks
(Good going Ryan - I'm gonna have you manage my 401 + you started one of best threads ever on ET)
I think we've topped for the week, especially NDX. The weekly (23rd against Apr) 2675 put calendar (or call) looks decent at 30.50 at 1:1 and short NQ small at 2709.25. 1/5 short futures to long calendar.
Quote from atticus:
Pulling that 180 is what makes Ryan a good trader. The var in AAPL is what allows him to earn on the long gamma. God, you're a dimwit.
Obviously, you've developed too big a head to think clearly at this point. So, now you are claiming Ryan was scalping AAPL volatility late in the expiry week with 20% of his entire account. Not what he posted at all in his reasons.
This is one of the dumbest posts you've ever put up on this board. Even I expect more from you.
Quote from Nine_Ender:
Obviously, you've developed too big a head to think clearly at this point. So, now you are claiming Ryan was scalping AAPL volatility late in the expiry week with 20% of his entire account. Not what he posted at all in his reasons.
This is one of the dumbest posts you've ever put up on this board. Even I expect more from you.
Wow, your ignore function is brkn. You should contact Baron and have him take a look. And yeah, "even you".
Thankyou for the comment nine ender. Got it.
__________________________
Bottom line for me is your equity curve balance. I don´t much care how you make it increase. All the fancy strategies, intimate knowledge of complex options greeks, etc. in the world, cannot substitute for the equity balance of your personal account. Very few people on here are willing to post their account balances. So there is no way, to judge the value of their commentary and advice. Only Atticus, Ryan and myself are doing so.
That said; we don´t know what indicators Ryan is using when he is watching his charts. Reacting as he did, with a close and reverse trade is par for the course, if you know enough that you have an indicator that tells you the premium is shrinking from volatility contraction.
I can stop and reverse sometimes. Just never thought of it from a volatility collapse viewpoint before. More just from regular premium price action. I am however, studying that effect right now.
On paper trading, I did SCHL, AIXG, TWER, NUVA, STP and CSX. Of these six trades yesterday, by close of day, the volatility, or premium balloon collapsed on 5 out of 6, even though the stock is still even, or going up. Only CSX made money in the traditional way. Running from .54 cents to .74 cents. The others all lost premium value.
I´m sitting here at 3.42 a.m. thinking about it. How can I take advantage of this post earnings GAP and volatility balloon. I do have an indicator for volatility, premium ballooning, or gamma. I can clearly see it happening in a chart picture,without the numbers. I presume Ryan has it also?
In my very limited knowledge, my guess would be to sell a credit spread in the first 2 or 3 hours and sit till the end of the day, then buy back. I´m not allowed to do that with my small account, so will refigure things today, which would be overnight. I might try that next week on paper and see how practical that would be? Commissions hurt a lot though. In other words, sell the premium balloon and buy back on the collapse. Even though the stock continues to go up. Won´t know until it is tried.
Comments welcome!
__________________________
Bottom line for me is your equity curve balance. I don´t much care how you make it increase. All the fancy strategies, intimate knowledge of complex options greeks, etc. in the world, cannot substitute for the equity balance of your personal account. Very few people on here are willing to post their account balances. So there is no way, to judge the value of their commentary and advice. Only Atticus, Ryan and myself are doing so.
That said; we don´t know what indicators Ryan is using when he is watching his charts. Reacting as he did, with a close and reverse trade is par for the course, if you know enough that you have an indicator that tells you the premium is shrinking from volatility contraction.
I can stop and reverse sometimes. Just never thought of it from a volatility collapse viewpoint before. More just from regular premium price action. I am however, studying that effect right now.
On paper trading, I did SCHL, AIXG, TWER, NUVA, STP and CSX. Of these six trades yesterday, by close of day, the volatility, or premium balloon collapsed on 5 out of 6, even though the stock is still even, or going up. Only CSX made money in the traditional way. Running from .54 cents to .74 cents. The others all lost premium value.
I´m sitting here at 3.42 a.m. thinking about it. How can I take advantage of this post earnings GAP and volatility balloon. I do have an indicator for volatility, premium ballooning, or gamma. I can clearly see it happening in a chart picture,without the numbers. I presume Ryan has it also?
In my very limited knowledge, my guess would be to sell a credit spread in the first 2 or 3 hours and sit till the end of the day, then buy back. I´m not allowed to do that with my small account, so will refigure things today, which would be overnight. I might try that next week on paper and see how practical that would be? Commissions hurt a lot though. In other words, sell the premium balloon and buy back on the collapse. Even though the stock continues to go up. Won´t know until it is tried.
Comments welcome!
Well I´m still studying options on stocks. Trying to figure something out.
I just can´t do it like Ryan. I´m a poor loser. Trying not to lose at all.
Recently screened BAC, COF, GE, JPM, NSC, TYC, USB, WFC,
Of these I had short term option trades BUY for; BAC, GE, NSC, TYC, WFC. The others will be paper trades.
Then I ran my second screening, and all the buy recommendations fell back into the paper trading category. So now I will paper trade all of these, to see how they react and compare.
In the meantime, I wait on QQQ, as I am on a more intimate basis with that.
Trying not to lose any money.
I just can´t do it like Ryan. I´m a poor loser. Trying not to lose at all.
Recently screened BAC, COF, GE, JPM, NSC, TYC, USB, WFC,
Of these I had short term option trades BUY for; BAC, GE, NSC, TYC, WFC. The others will be paper trades.
Then I ran my second screening, and all the buy recommendations fell back into the paper trading category. So now I will paper trade all of these, to see how they react and compare.
In the meantime, I wait on QQQ, as I am on a more intimate basis with that.
Trying not to lose any money.
Quote from Nine_Ender:
My point is when you are trading options directionally within 3 days of expiry, you should have a very strong opinon on that direction. You wouldn't pull a 180 degree turn within a few hours without major news.
I happened to agree with Ryan yesterday that AAPL was going to touch $600 ( I was thinking as much well before he posted it ). However, if you believed that, why on earth would you ever touch $585 puts for $9 ? That is why I questioned his trade. It was shocking to me that he bought the calls given his original stated strategy.
If its real, well, so be it. The strategy is not good because there was no plan. People can disagree with me all they want, its an opinion.
If he had done it with stock instead. Shorted and then bought to go long would it have been any different? Would that have been okay?
If so, then he used options to express his delta view and took some gamma/theta risk as well. Not unreasonable to take this risk for a stock that's up 16% over a week or so and implied 34 vol. But as an experienced options guy you would understand all this.
Ryan, I'm in your boat regarding 550. I am not hedging my delta due to gamma until then or 630. Whichever comes first or 11 days when i stop out on theta.
newworldmm
Whew! That comment was over my head. I sort of could refer to what you said, but the relationships escaped me, as also the time frame.
Here is one I am puzzling over. Help me out somebody?
If I buy a CALL and sell a PUT, what kind of spread do I have?
Whew! That comment was over my head. I sort of could refer to what you said, but the relationships escaped me, as also the time frame.
Here is one I am puzzling over. Help me out somebody?
If I buy a CALL and sell a PUT, what kind of spread do I have?
Quote from newwurldmn:
If he had done it with stock instead. Shorted and then bought to go long would it have been any different? Would that have been okay?
If so, then he used options to express his delta view and took some gamma/theta risk as well. Not unreasonable to take this risk for a stock that's up 16% over a week or so and implied 34 vol. But as an experienced options guy you would understand all this.
Ryan, I'm in your boat regarding 550. I am not hedging my delta due to gamma until then or 630. Whichever comes first or 11 days when i stop out on theta.
I let my deltas go batshit crazy on AAPL.
Mind you I do have a smaller account like Ryan so I can't hedge that often so Im very very picky with my credits and debit trades...