My option trades

[ryanpatrick]

Quote from ForexForex:

BIDU - Earnings today after market closes, I think about 8pm EST. Chart says buy Calls.

BIDU Feb 2012 150 call @ $1.70

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BIDU120218C00150000

Yeah, I reviewed that one, and its been calls for the past 4 quarters....what's not keeping me in this trade is that they delayed earnings....actual date was like 2 weeks ago. Anytime there's a delay, the odds are never good for calls, but because BIDU is such a call winner I'm staying neutral on that one. No idea what the surprising news could be that delayed the report. Let me know how it goes.

 

[ryanpatrick]

In fact, for BIDU forex can wait until tomorrow morning at the open. BIDU has added a consistent 2% move in addition to the open price the following morning. So instead of taking the risk now. Enter the trade right at the open and give yourself room for a 1.5-2.5% move. At $140, maybe you can grab the 135 calls tomorrow morning and allow BIDU to go from $140 to $143-$145. I have not tested this one out like that, but it would be interesting to see your result if you want to get calls on BIDU right now.

 

[atticus]

Quote from ryanpatrick:

Okay, I'm going to give the straddle a try here.....ROVI is in no man's land here at $34.50, 35 straddle with 1 day left gives me a risk of 3.40. I'm leaning to the downside with the odds of ROVI dropping back to $28-$30 area. Last 4 quarter says ROVI averages about 12% swing at -6, +22, -9, -39. I left -39 out as the odds of that happening again may be quarters away. My guess is it drops to $31.20, about a 9% drop from 34.50 and 3.80 return on 3.4 investment. I'm not looking for big return, and I'm not going all in, just 1 contract to test the straddle play and see how it pans out. If it works out to my price point, then I'm up $20 after comm., the key is that this gives me experience on the straddle in such a situation. Going to set it up now.

This looks ok, good luck with it. My guess is lower as well and you're slightly short deltas. Is this in a cash account? Can you lock deltas in shares AH?

 

[ryanpatrick]

Quote from kinggyppo:

wow you have no fu^&in idea what you are talking about, this is one of THE dumbest statements I have ever seen on this board, I will let you figure out why.....

Ha, if you don't like comments here, then go elsewhere....maybe find your own trading method and do your own thing. No for your to come in here....I bet you were a doubter....what was your bet? That I'd be out -1700 by end of Jan? end of Feb? Like I said, I'm still consider myself at the learning stage of option strategies, but I know full well how these stocks I've traded will do on earnings. no need to bring up F-words or that sort of crap in here. In all my point to atticus was that these market makers are no casino dealers....they don't hold an 80/20 edge on any trade...at best their maybe 50/50, but when you get your research in place, your odds of hitting 777 are closer to 60/40 then the 10/90 you might get at a slot machine. There's investing like Buffet, and then there's trading/gambling how ever you want to call it.

 

[ryanpatrick]

Quote from atticus:

This looks ok, good luck with it. My guess is lower as well and you're slightly short deltas. Is this in a cash account? Can you lock deltas in shares AH?

It's a cash account....I didn't want to mess with the trading margin calls and all. Talked about that issue with a rep from the broker for like an hour about it. They will give you some leeway though if you link accounts. I have another account where I only trade stocks, actually just holding long term positions I have 2545 in TSCO shares at avg price of 80, and 4000 shares in DNDN at avg price 12.88. I don't consider myself with enough knowledge to hold options long term just yet. As for short term option trades, I like my result so far, although the leverage was nothing that I expected at all. One thing is I've never seen so many +100% returns before, I'm used to 10-20% returns over 1-3 week period from earning trades, but the leverage now is wicked.

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from ryanpatrick:

Ha, if you don't like comments here, then go elsewhere....maybe find your own trading method and do your own thing. No for your to come in here....I bet you were a doubter....what was your bet? That I'd be out -1700 by end of Jan? end of Feb? Like I said, I'm still consider myself at the learning stage of option strategies, but I know full well how these stocks I've traded will do on earnings. no need to bring up F-words or that sort of crap in here. In all my point to atticus was that these market makers are no casino dealers....they don't hold an 80/20 edge on any trade...at best their maybe 50/50, but when you get your research in place, your odds of hitting 777 are closer to 60/40 then the 10/90 you might get at a slot machine. There's investing like Buffet, and then there's trading/gambling how ever you want to call it.

My comment was in no way directed at you. I think you are trading very well. Atticus is well worth listening to, one of the best option traders I have ever seen. I take issue with falcon comparing you two as you are both in different places. People irritate me when they throw the word "edge" around and haven't a clue what they are talking about. I probably should have kept my mouth shut. Sometimes people need to be called on their bullshit though, anyway good luck with your trading.

 

[jeffalvinson]

Quote from ryanpatrick:
01-05-12 07:12 AM
Just back from the holidays...
Still have $1794.55 from my account. Didn't quite reach my target of $4000, but now I have some experience in options and a full year. New target: $18,000 by end of year. If I can reach that modest gain, I will have learned a lot, either that or $0. Don't want anything in between.

Quote from ryanpatrick:
02-16-12 07:08 AM
I am all cash now at a little above 9400. Net gain on wtw was about 394.

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Ryan,

Look at your two posts above from the beginning of this year to
today (6 weeks).
That's a +423% account gain in 6 weeks!!!

At this rate your $18K goal for 2012 will be reached by the end of April.

Whatever your eating, drinking or smoking...please send me some now!
I was sitting here looking at your results for 2012 and comparing them to mine and I am beginning to feel physically ill.


Jeff

 

[atticus]

Ryan, you earned on WTW? I thought you bot the 77/72 strangle?

 

[ryanpatrick]

Quote from jeffalvinson:

Quote from ryanpatrick:
01-05-12 07:12 AM
Just back from the holidays...
Still have $1794.55 from my account. Didn't quite reach my target of $4000, but now I have some experience in options and a full year. New target: $18,000 by end of year. If I can reach that modest gain, I will have learned a lot, either that or $0. Don't want anything in between.

Quote from ryanpatrick:
02-16-12 07:08 AM
I am all cash now at a little above 9400. Net gain on wtw was about 394.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ryan,

Look at your two posts above from the beginning of this year to
today (6 weeks).
That's a +423% account gain in 6 weeks!!!

At this rate your $18K goal for 2012 will be reached by the end of April.

Whatever your eating, drinking or smoking...please send me some now!
I was sitting here looking at your results for 2012 and comparing them to mine and I am beginning to feel physically ill.


Jeff

Well that's 420%, but I'm cautious because strting amount was only $1700-$1800.....Can it be done with something in the range of $20000 account? $50000 account? Maybe I could still get the wins in play, but I don't know how risking $5000 per trade will affect options. If you think about $5000/$200 per contract gives me 25 contracts and it works if I'm in those higher volume options, but I've also been in some where after earnings those market makers will make you work for your selling price especially when volume is 0 and spread is $0.30-$0.40 for ex. $3.00/$3.40 as the spread. You can't just put a limit in $3.10-$3.15 and expect to get all 25 contracts out, I'm going to have to tweak things a little and maybe stick to high volume options where the spread is under $0.10.

 

[ryanpatrick]

Quote from atticus:

Ryan, you earned on WTW? I thought you bot the 77/72 strangle?

No it was the 77.5 put/82.5 call, and the net loss was -494. I think I mentioned this yesterday. I'll need a few more strangles to get a better idea on the strategy though, 2 trades with 1 win and 1 loss isn't enough data to review. the ROVI trade is a straddle, so I'll also have to separate that from the strangle plays.