My only edge is technical analysis

[hilmy83]

Linda Rascke once said years ago that: “the best indicator of price is price itself.” Chew abit on that one.

Oook
https://www.lizardindicators.com/indicator-library-2/momentum-oscillators/lbr-3-10-oscillator/

 

[Steve777]

I am not convinced that using stochastic models are going to help you trade any better than just using a Bollinger Band on your candlestick chart.

But if you love doing stochastic modelling then do it....and don't let anyone stop you.

Well you would be wrong. I have a 55% return over 4 years each year making 55% after taxes and this was due to me using volatility models only very rudimental. If you've read the book fooled by randomness by Taleb he does a very good job of demonstrating how people fall victim to the propensity to think they see patterns in purely random signals. Your comment only betrays your ignorance

 

[poopy]

Well you would be wrong. I have a 55% return over 4 years each year making 55% after taxes and this was due to me using volatility models only very rudimental. If you've read the book fooled by randomness by Taleb he does a very good job of demonstrating how people fall victim to the propensity to think they see patterns in purely random signals. Your comment only betrays your ignorance

SC, on how much capital?

 

[poopy]

Am I in trouble?
What other edges should I look for

If you're short you don't need to ask anyone here for advice.

 

[HappyDays]

TA is only a toolbox. Works well for anyone who is proficient with its tools.
SPY 1 minute chart, 80% winners with a few losing trades that another indicator could have filtered out.

Homemade indicator.

 

[wxytrader]

Am I in trouble?
What other edges should I look for

That depends on your TA. There is a wealth of options knowledge around here but definitely nothing Elite when it comes to TA.

I would try an EW forum...you may get 10 different interpretations but at least all of them would be correct.

 

[Sergio123]

TA is only a toolbox. Works well for anyone who is proficient with its tools.
SPY 1 minute chart, 80% winners with a few losing trades that another indicator could have filtered out.

That's correct. Whether its squiggly lines on a chart or data output from python code, calculations are calculations and strategies are strategies.

 

[wxytrader]

View attachment 345749 TA is only a toolbox. Works well for anyone who is proficient with its tools.
SPY 1 minute chart, 80% winners with a few losing trades that another indicator could have filtered out.

Homemade indicator.

If it is a lagging indicator then how do you trade it? Pretty much just shows you what you missed.

 

[shine]

TA is only a toolbox. Works well for anyone who is proficient with its tools.
SPY 1 minute chart, 80% winners with a few losing trades that another indicator could have filtered out.

And what is the quality of such an indicator in real trading mode, and not on the chart history? That is, do its indicators not repaint in online trading mode?

 

[volpri]

If it is a lagging indicator then how do you trade it? Pretty much just shows you what you missed.

The concept of market inertia (that price tends to keep doing what it is doing at least for a little while longer) is the element that has a directional predictive value about it when is combined cognizance of the overall context that is being created and played out by the institutions. Their footprints are in the chart. They cannot hide what they are doing. They move the markets. The catch is that there are bullish and bearish institutions at all moments. The task becomes to determine which ones are winning and jump in on the inertia they create.