My only edge is technical analysis

[2rosy]

To answer this question. I will present an example: Over the past few trading sessions the Japanese and US stock markets have been tanking, while US Treasuries and the Yen have been soaring.

Every single TA indicator ever created would confirm that.

There are some fundamentals behind it but fundamental analysis won't tell you when the markets have stopped moving this way. But TA will.

So, TA can confirm what happened? Does it predict what will happen? What's the false positive rate for these indicators?

 

[Sergio123]

So, TA can confirm what happened? Does it predict what will happen? What's the false positive rate for these indicators?

Yup. I'd say it does a good job of confirming what happened and when.

 

[Sergio123]

Don't be foolish these are all factors captured by stochastic models nothing to do with your tea leaf reading equivalent b*******

I am not convinced that using stochastic models are going to help you trade any better than just using a Bollinger Band on your candlestick chart.

But if you love doing stochastic modelling then do it....and don't let anyone stop you.

 

[volpri]

Not that it's important, but some people get technical analysis (TA) and price action (PA) mixed up. They're two completely different things. Those who rely on TA cannot trade without first seeing all these squiggly lines like indicators (eg. moving averages, Bollinger Bands) or oscillators (eg. RSI or Stochastics). PA, on the other hand, don't require any of that. All you need is price, period.

Price should be your ONLY edge.

Linda Rascke once said years ago that: “the best indicator of price is price itself.” Chew abit on that one.

 

[longandshort]

You really should stop ending your posts with 'lol'. It makes you come across as a condescending douche.

If you want to troll these boards, fine, keep what you're doing. But if you actually want a productive and civil discussion where you actually convince people to change their views, consider dropping that 'lol' on every post you make.

As for Jason Shapiro, he's featured in Market Wizards and his track record is verified by Jack Schwager and looks pretty good to me. Yes, he uses COT data which is lagging, but also other data on positioning.

Anyway, I'm not going to spend time defending the guy as I don't really know that much about him and am not paying for his services, but I saw you mention positioning in your newsletter and in relation to this thread it's interesting as it's another data point beyond merely looking at a price chart.



Maybe. From what I've picked up he hasn't made any trades in index futures this year, but had a play in copper and a few currencies.

I think he's a low frequency trader. Maybe similar in that sense to James B. Rogers, Jr. who surprisingly was one of the best interviews in Market Wizards when I re-read that book earlier this year:


View attachment 345684

What’s more important — my writing style or rebutting the scams/lies on the site?

When you fight the good fight against the swarm of “believers”, the only way to stay sane is to keep a smile on and a laugh ready (or I’d be in tears over the sheer idiocy of some posts).

Re: COT data. It’s useful to understand what the story behind positioning is (at least marginal positioning), but it’s lagging and thus not timely. Over reliance on any one indicator, especially one that isn’t an actual alpha, is not serious.

In my letter I used the positioning data from Goldman (mix of COT and their own estimate of the positioning of certain types of strategies) to explain the backdrop and to make the case that a change in the economic regime could result in a violent unwind. I’d argue that assessing existing positioning, the prevailing regime, and the catalyst calendar (along with a variant perception on the path of data), is useful and a good trading style. That doesn’t seem to be Shapiro’s style.

 

[longandshort]

Linda Rascke once said years ago that: “the best indicator of price is price itself.” Chew abit on that one.

Yes, “the price is down so therefore the price is down” is so informative and helpful, thank you.

 

[poopy]

He's replying bc he's trying to steer you away from self-harm. I could name the fund here but I'm not going to doxx a friend. Does knowing he's a HF-manager influence your reply?

 

[Laissez Faire]

What’s more important — my writing style or rebutting the scams/lies on the site?

When you fight the good fight against the swarm of “believers”, the only way to stay sane is to keep a smile on and a laugh ready (or I’d be in tears over the sheer idiocy of some posts).

I'm all about rebutting scams and lies which are abundant in this industry and especially among the retail crowd and retail 'educators', so have at it. I'm just suggesting that ending every post with a 'lol' seems a bit dismissive and it would be better with a factual reply (which arguably many of yours are).

Re: COT data. It’s useful to understand what the story behind positioning is (at least marginal positioning), but it’s lagging and thus not timely. Over reliance on any one indicator, especially one that isn’t an actual alpha, is not serious.

In my letter I used the positioning data from Goldman (mix of COT and their own estimate of the positioning of certain types of strategies) to explain the backdrop and to make the case that a change in the economic regime could result in a violent unwind. I’d argue that assessing existing positioning, the prevailing regime, and the catalyst calendar (along with a variant perception on the path of data), is useful and a good trading style. That doesn’t seem to be Shapiro’s style.

Okay. Thanks.

I don't know Shapiro's style in detail myself as I have never paid for any of his services and probably won't, so I wouldn't know.

Regardless, interesting stuff, and something I might be interested in exploring further myself at some point.

He's replying bc he's trying to steer you away from self-harm. I could name the fund here but I'm not going to doxx a friend. Does knowing he's a HF-manager influence your reply?

To be honest, not really. And this isn't meant to be disrespectful either towards you or L&S, but I'm done 'believing' anything in this industry. I received the newsletter from a hedge fund here in Norway for a few years until it stopped sending out newsletters after a long string of losses.

Many HFs underperform and a few even blow up.

Now, L&S seems like a good guy with a ton of knowledge, so I do read his posts with interest and I appreciate his comments for sure.

Thanks.

 

[schizo]

He's replying bc he's trying to steer you away from self-harm. I could name the fund here but I'm not going to doxx a friend. Does knowing he's a HF-manager influence your reply?

Man, you need to quote the dude, otherwise he's too stupid to know who you're talking about. (Not LF, but that other dude who thinks he's the only guy living in the sand castle.)

 

[schizo]

Linda Rascke once said years ago that: “the best indicator of price is price itself.” Chew abit on that one.

Amen to that. Unfortunately (or maybe it's fortunate), only some people will grasp it while some will never get it.