My only edge is technical analysis

[longandshort]

And despite all that, the majority of managed mutual funds underperform the market. Same goes for hedge funds:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/hedge-funds-vs-sp-500-truth-investment-returns-amr-elharony-hmysf

And I’m guessing most of them use some fairly sophisticated analytical tools, too.

Even guys like John Paulson, who made a pant load of money in 2008 had some less than stellar performance in the following years. Should we be automatically dismissive? Broken clock?

Yes!! you should be highly skeptical of anyone saying they've got some great edge -- especially those who are just reading charts lol.

 

[longandshort]

The stuff on positioning is interesting. Ever heard of Jason Shapiro? His entire approach is from what I understand based on positioning, i.e., when one side gets crowded.

I like to watch his free videos. Not up to date on this week, but last I checked he said he was not shorting equities yet based on his data.

He uses COT data which is lagging (he has no edge lol).

 

[Frederick Foresight]

Yes!! you should be highly skeptical of anyone saying they've got some great edge -- especially those who are just reading charts lol.

I added to my previous post. Please have a look.

 

[Frederick Foresight]

Yes!! you should be highly skeptical of anyone saying they've got some great edge -- especially those who are just reading charts lol.

I’m skeptical as a matter of course. But that is beside the point. What I posted earlier suggests that I should be no less skeptical of the average quant.

 

[longandshort]

I added to my previous post. Please have a look.

I agree with you. Look this whole thread is about a guy claiming his only edge is TA. I am questioning that as an edge and am skeptical of his ability to generate alpha. I am skeptical of even my own ability to generate alpha. The market is brutal and highly competitive.

I don't mind those who are truly seeking to find truth and build some edge or develop a strategy. What I really don't like are the scammers and hobbyists who claim they are market wizards by drawing lines on a chart or by "understanding price action" (lol). It sounds like we're in agreement here.

 

[Frederick Foresight]

It sounds like we're in agreement here.

I wouldn’t go quite that far, but there is some overlap.

 

[poopy]

The stuff on positioning is interesting. Ever heard of Jason Shapiro? His entire approach is from what I understand based on positioning, i.e., when one side gets crowded.

I like to watch his free videos. Not up to date on this week, but last I checked he said he was not shorting equities yet based on his data.

Index futures COT data? That's an IQ test even if it were in real-time.

 

[charlotte_daily]

TA is awesome, but you definitively want to explore other approaches and views of the market as well.

 

[Lee-me]

I believe TA is enough, but you can make it easier by applying other methods there as well.

 

[HawaiianIceberg]

I believe TA is enough, but you can make it easier by applying other methods there as well.

Aloha to the people running bots,
You all sound the same. How are you going to feed yourself when this is the best you can do? Please consider a new profession. I want what’s best for you and your family.
@Lee-me @charlotte_daily


More importantly, PA > TA