My Nerves Are Shot

[spindr0]

Quote from JohnGreen:

As I understand it, the reason atticus keeps chasing you from thread to thread is that he thinks that you are being dishonest. Frankly, I have to agree with him! How your report your returns makes a big difference and the only truly honest way is to report losses and gains using the same methodology (which, again, is what he is trying to say). Not only that, but the methodology must be a sensible and credible one like return on the entire account or loss on the entire account. After all, in your credit spread journal, you clearly reported opening spreads that must have gotten into serious trouble and generated significant losses. When that started to happen, the "dashboard" suddenly disappeared from your posts. In fact, you disappeared from your own forum for awhile. If you expect to be credible, you must tell the truth.

It would seem to me that seemingly endless pages of back and forth clutter could be avoided if Howard posted the account balance when trades were made (they would have to be posted as well). Numbers don't lie.

 

[spindr0]

Quote from JohnGreen:

If everyone were totally honest on this forum, we'd all have to admit to having losses at some stage. I have had some, too, but overall, I'm doing pretty well. I'm sure Martinghoul, MTE, and atticus have had losses at one time or another, too, but they are not pretending to be something they are not. I think also, that if they were pressed, they would also admit this honestly. They are warning that risky strategies can cause serious damages to any one's account, and they can. My guess is that they probably learned from experience just like I did. In my early days, I took a nasty one on the chin, but I learned from my foolishness and took much better risk control measures which make losses more manageable. I'd bet they are doing the same, just like everyone who wants to preserve their capital.

I had two watershed moments. The first was the crash of '87 where for every stock that I sold naked puts on expiration Friday, I basically owned them on expiration Monday.

The 2nd was the first time that I ever shorted a stock (it was Compaq). It was daily religious experience...

Day 1: God, if you get me back to being only 1 pts down, I'll take the loss.

Day 2: God, if you get me back to being only 3 pts down, I'll take the loss.

Day 3: God, if you get me back to being only 6 pts down, I'll take the loss.

Day 4: Is there a god ???

 

[HowardCohodas]

Quote from spindr0:

It would seem to me that seemingly endless pages of back and forth clutter could be avoided if Howard posted the account balance when trades were made (they would have to be posted as well). Numbers don't lie.

I did that. Not in absolute numbers but as percentages. The amount in this account is no-one's business.

This repeated back and forth in this thread about me is a disservice to the OP. It has nothing to do with his questions. The other threads where this is debated is the place for it.

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from spindr0:

I had two watershed moments. The first was the crash of '87 where for every stock that I sold naked puts on expiration Friday, I basically owned them on expiration Monday.

The 2nd was the first time that I ever shorted a stock (it was Compaq). It was daily religious experience...

Day 1: God, if you get me back to being only 1 pts down, I'll take the loss.

Day 2: God, if you get me back to being only 3 pts down, I'll take the loss.

Day 3: God, if you get me back to being only 6 pts down, I'll take the loss.

Day 4: Is there a god ???


thanks for sharing............panic attacks, puking, margin calls, visions of being homeless (with kids), good times, thanks for some refreshing honesty.

 

[spindr0]

Quote from HowardCohodas:

I did that. Not in absolute numbers but as percentages. The amount in this account is no-one's business.

If that's where you make your last stand then how you calculate performance will continue to be open to question - tho not by me since I couldn't care less.


This repeated back and forth in this thread about me is a disservice to the OP. It has nothing to do with his questions. The other threads where this is debated is the place for it.

In this thread, no one came out of the woodwork and initiated an attack on you for your claimed returns. Unfortunately, you were the first to mention them so I don't think that you get to play the "They belong in the other thread" card.

Over and out - I'm gone from your performance debate.

 

[donnap]

Quote from Arnie Guitar:

for a... 20 stinking cent credit. I got .60 cents for the 1295's, only to see it open at about 3.50 this morning. I get 20 cents and would have to cover at over 2 dollars.

Well thanks, but the problem is that it's been all luck, just dumb luck. I don't feel any skill in the least, just lucky. I feel like a deer in the headlights when things move against me. My knowledge on what to do as far as adjusting my position is non existent.

I feel like I'm playing musical chairs only selling bull put credit spreads, waiting for the music to stop and I'll have nowhere to sit down.

I think that your own analysis is pretty good.

+30% is not too surprising, given the high probability trades. Yeah, you've been lucky, though.

If I'm reading it correctly a recent R/R is 980/20. That's a terrible R/R and the trade has limited flexibility as it stands. It's like a time bomb.

It's not surprising that your nerves are shot because this type of trade will either slowly make the .20 or you experience some heat, even though the bulk of the trades will be profitable.

You and others who make these high probability trades seem to forget that size is a great mitigator of risk. So you put on high probability trades that you think will be safe, but at the same time you put on large size for the account - which increases risk.

Personally, I'd reduce size and get better R/Rs such as 60/40. That trade has better liquidity and flexibility so you can trade around it.

If you want to make money, you've got to take on risk. But you can make plenty with smaller size where the worst case scenario doesn't wipe you out.

Classic thread, BTW.

 

[spindr0]

Quote from spindr0:

I had two watershed moments. The first was the crash of '87 where for every stock that I sold naked puts on expiration Friday, I basically owned them on expiration Monday.

BTW, I forget to mention the subsequent margin calls.

I gave up a good number of stocks (liquidated to cover the margin calls) that had really impressive runs over the next few years.

And who says that a good spanking doesn't reinforce the lesson ???

 

[Martinghoul]

Quote from spindr0:

And who says that a good spanking doesn't reinforce the lesson ???

Are you speaking figuratively here?

 

[ForexForex]

Quote from donnap:
Personally, I'd reduce size and get better R/Rs such as 60/40. That trade has better liquidity and flexibility so you can trade around it.

60/40? You are just pulling numbers from your ass. Could you post an example? 60/40 is too close to ATM or too long of a duration, the chances of a loss are too high.

 

[gnode]

Quote from donnap:

I think that your own analysis is pretty good.

+30% is not too surprising, given the high probability trades. Yeah, you've been lucky, though.

If I'm reading it correctly a recent R/R is 980/20. That's a terrible R/R and the trade has limited flexibility as it stands. It's like a time bomb.

It's not surprising that your nerves are shot because this type of trade will either slowly make the .20 or you experience some heat, even though the bulk of the trades will be profitable.

You and others who make these high probability trades seem to forget that size is a great mitigator of risk. So you put on high probability trades that you think will be safe, but at the same time you put on large size for the account - which increases risk.

Personally, I'd reduce size and get better R/Rs such as 60/40. That trade has better liquidity and flexibility so you can trade around it.

If you want to make money, you've got to take on risk. But you can make plenty with smaller size where the worst case scenario doesn't wipe you out.

Classic thread, BTW.

Truth is it is just a sliding scale. The more risk you take the more you are compensated on it from yield. The less risk, the less compensation. I compare the various options to try to find the optimal expected return based on probability of touch/closing relative to r/r and base my decision on that, within some other rules. Basically, an attempt to find risk adjusted/expected return.

But you can't just look at that. For these types of trades, you have to stay in the market a certain amount of time. To do that, you definitely have to look at the trends. You definitely can't just use standard deviation based probabilities. One clue is to compare the call side and the put side.

If the "equivalent" spreads equidistant from the current underlying's price have different yields, it gives you an idea if you track them over time. If the call side has a 1% yield while the put side has a 10% yield, that tells you something worth listening to.