My Nerves Are Shot

[HowardCohodas]

Quote from JohnGreen:

Howard,

This thread is not about how I report my real money trading returns. I challenge you to point out a post in this thread which contradicts this. Perhaps I missed it when I reviewed this thread.

If you had truly read my trading thread (you brought it up) as you said you did, you would have noticed that after all the misrepresentation by others of how I represent my returns, I consolidated my previous answers into one well organized complete explanation. Each of the three ways I report my returns offer useful perspective, and all are truthful. Anyone wanting a copy of my exposition and not wanting to scan my trading thread for it can PM me. Even you.

Of the three methods, I now only report my trading account devoted to trading credit spreads as month on month of account balance. The other methods of reporting became tiresome to argue about, even though I find them useful. And, had you truly read my thread, you would have noticed that I lost money in March.

If you doubt my veracity, take me up on my audit challenge. Details available via PM. Atticus has ducked it several times, but I don't recall if you also chose to duck it.

 

[ForexForex]

HowardCohodas could you get your broker to post a confirmation of your trades? Account balance would also be helpful. Thanks

 

[Martinghoul]

Quote from HowardCohodas:
Which of these views from a few posts back in this thread are, in your opinion, erroneous.

The bit about PoT... Instantaneous risk-neutral PoT is not a tool, it's a meaningless number, so suggesting to people, as you do, that it can be used to "select" a short strike is incorrect. It's also misleading to keep bringing it up, which is what you did in your response to the OP's query. Hence, I felt the need to point out the error of your ways, lest people get confused.

 

[sle]

Quote from HowardCohodas:
Sadly, it's unavailable to the general public. Would be fascinating to read.

A good estimate of the risk-neutral probability of touching a boundary could be obtained directly from the options market prices. A touch probability is twice the price of the narrowest call spread divided by the width of that call spead. This number takes into account the skew and volatility.

Now, what exactly does that probability do for you, i still dont get.

 

[Arnie Guitar]

No, no, no.
You guys have it all wrong.

To select the short strike, select the farthest out of the money 10 point spread that will give you a .20 credit. That works out to 91% ROI annualized, commissions included when writing a 10/10 position.

The Arnie Guitar Secret To Success.

Simple as pie.

Stochastic, shmochastic...greeks, shmeeks...all a waste of time.

Man, I should start a newsletter...no wait, my OWN hedge fund...

Optioncoach ain't got nuttin' on me.

 

[atticus]

Quote from HowardCohodas:

This thread is not about how I report my real money trading returns. I challenge you to point out a post in this thread which contradicts this. Perhaps I missed it when I reviewed this thread.

If you had truly read my trading thread (you brought it up) as you said you did, you would have noticed that after all the misrepresentation by others of how I represent my returns, I consolidated my previous answers into one well organized complete explanation. Each of the three ways I report my returns offer useful perspective, and all are truthful. Anyone wanting a copy of my exposition and not wanting to scan my trading thread for it can PM me. Even you.

Of the three methods, I now only report my trading account devoted to trading credit spreads as month on month of account balance. The other methods of reporting became tiresome to argue about, even though I find them useful. And, had you truly read my thread, you would have noticed that I lost money in March.

If you doubt my veracity, take me up on my audit challenge. Details available via PM. Atticus has ducked it several times, but I don't recall if you also chose to duck it.

What exactly have I ducked? I need nothing more than the data you've posted to this site. What is this "details in PM" bullshit?

 

[atticus]

Quote from sle:

A good estimate of the risk-neutral probability of touching a boundary could be obtained directly from the options market prices. A touch probability is twice the price of the narrowest call spread divided by the width of that call spead. This number takes into account the skew and volatility.

Now, what exactly does that probability do for you, i still dont get.

And expiration prob. is the price of narrow vertical / width. And yes, what is the point of reliance on the POT and POE when it's evident in the R:R?

 

[HowardCohodas]

Quote from ForexForex:

HowardCohodas could you get your broker to post a confirmation of your trades? Account balance would also be helpful. Thanks

Request my audit challenge where this is covered.

 

[HowardCohodas]

Quote from Martinghoul:

The bit about PoT... Instantaneous risk-neutral PoT is not a tool, it's a meaningless number, so suggesting to people, as you do, that it can be used to "select" a short strike is incorrect. It's also misleading to keep bringing it up, which is what you did in your response to the OP's query. Hence, I felt the need to point out the error of your ways, lest people get confused.

I use it along with price of spread. You think it is worthless and potentially dangerous. You agreed to verify or refute the results of my tests. You are too busy.

I think that sums thing up on where we stand.

 

[Martinghoul]

Quote from HowardCohodas:
I use it along with price of spread. You think it is worthless and potentially dangerous. You agreed to verify or refute the results of my tests. You are too busy.

I think that sums thing up on where we stand.

Indeed...