My History on Elite Trader for those who care ...

Originally posted by TonyOz
The stock closed at the top 10% of its trading range which suggested an 85% chance of going higher the following day
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wow. since you gave so precise probability number i would really like you to elaborate. are you saying that, historically, if a stock closes at the top 10%, then it will close (or open) higher next day 85 times out of 100? or are you merely saying that the next day's high would be higher than today's close?

if the latter then i'm not surprised -- i believe the next day high is above today's close in at least 85% of cases anyway, no matter what the stock did today.

if the former, then i'm willing to bet my ass that the statement is not true. i've spent great deal of time doing correlation analysis, and i've yet to see so high probabilities in applicable context (you see, the "tomorrow's high above today's close" is not applicable, because it does not define an exit point in real time).

TIA.

- jaan
 
Said "going higher" rather than open/close higher.
I believe it, but no way to trade on that alone of coarse. close 10 .... open 9 .... low 8 ... high 10.02 ... 2/200 reward/risk ratio. 85% chance you can at least get out even so seems like it would be fairly safe to hold overnight.
 
Tony,

Are you watching the crazy action in SEBL today? Someone is dumping literally millions of shares through Island , looks like they are desperate to cap it.
 
Originally posted by AAAintheBeltway
Tony,

Are you watching the crazy action in SEBL today? Someone is dumping literally millions of shares through Island , looks like they are desperate to cap it.
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It's probably Tony.:D
 
His 6000 shares would have been gone in a couple of minutes. Since I posted earlier, the stock got crushed. It was a very odd deal, as it was obvious if the Island seller would just get out of the way the stock was going to lift but he just kept pumping it out. Finally, no more buyers. He's got to buy them back at some point though.
 
I don't follow this stock, but I checked it out and it seems that it is simply following standard procedures for year end tax selling. I checked the YTD and the 15 minute chart today...and it seems pretty normal...what am I missing...??
 
Originally posted by AAAintheBeltway
Tony,

Are you watching the crazy action in SEBL today? Someone is dumping literally millions of shares through Island , looks like they are desperate to cap it.
More...

Sorry it was me. Bought this new autoexecute program from Ronco and it went into a selling loop when I plugged it in.
 
Whaaatttsss uuupppp mmmaaaannn!!!!

I had a question for you. I was looking at your posted P&L from the other day and if you look closely, it looks like someone used paintshop or something to try and cover up a minus sign in front of the number itself.....or it could have just been bad resolution on my screen since I don't have any of them fancy Trikinetic Flat panels.

Welcome back :)

Oh I suppose I should cover all my bases here and make sure everyone knows I"M KIDDING with him. Tony is a great friend...been to his crib and seen it all happen live and in color....and the color was green.

Sorry I just got done reading the Chatroom thread and felt like puking so I posted here instead.

BTW made 22 trades today (15 short/7 long) for a whopping $560 in profit BEFORE commissions! Scalping sucks....but I love it :)
 
Tony,

Thanks for your time and patience spent posting here. I have learned a lot from you both online and from your books.

So far you've only earned $4 from me, but as soon as the idiots at the bookstore get your newest one in stock, you'll be $2 richer. :D

fwiw, I think you deserve a much higher profit/book (YOU wrote the damn thing, after all!)
 
Don,

You couldn't see what I am talking about unless you were watching the Lev II. On the chart, it looks like the stock was just weak in the afternoon, but what was happening was one Island seller was on the offer showing 400 shares but taking literally millions and constantly refreshing, with other offers several levels above him. Very obvious if he quit, stock would rise, since there were no other offers.
 
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