My History on Elite Trader for those who care ...

[Jeffo]

>>>1. stock closes at top 10% of range (202 samples)
next high higher than today's close: 86%

I think that's what he's getting at. The next day the stock will go higher at some point.

For the closing in the bottom 10% you would need to find if the stock has a lower low the next day.

 

[SHORTY]

I set up the same spreadsheet when Tony originally posted this probability. I also programmed the inverse of close within 10% of low. Oddly enough, I arrived at the same conclusion as you after trying historical data on many stocks. There are some obvious plays for short term trades, especially if the stock opens well below the previous days high, however, as a swing trade strategy it seems lacking.

 

[qwiktrade]

jaan and shorty..

there are other factors to consider.. a stock that gaps up out of consolidation and continues up to end the day near its high.. the market also closing near its high.. thats a classic gap overnight setup.. its not as simple as filtering for stocks closing in the top 10% of their range..

-qwik

 

[Warrior]

Tony,

I would like to thank you for your contributions to this board and to the trading industry as a whole. I have enjoyed your books and live presentations. I'm glad to hear that you have decided to stay on this board. I look forward to your future posts!

As a side note, I have been an avid reader of Elite Trader for the past 7 months and this is my first post! I have really enjoyed the contributions of all of the members of this site! Now I look forward to participating with you all and hopefully adding some value!

 

[Chartwiz212]

Originally posted by limbo
dufferdon--I assume your name is don and you play golf so you've adopted the handle dufferdon. Well, I for one, and probably many many others on ET would like to see you spend more time on the links and less time on the ET board. You have done harm Don with your paranoid disrupting, disturbing, annoying, insulting, ANAL method of probing some pretty important people(traders) that come to give good information on this site. This pisses me off alot as I want to hear the info these people provide and not have you chase them away for selfish whacky reasons of your own. So give it a rest Don--we dont need you to save us.

Hahaha........Don you have alot of fans huh ? hahaha....hahah........

 

[version77]

I have to agree with Limbo. Trying to drive away anyone that
posts here just because he/she has a book out, or a website
seems counterproductive to whatever can be learned from
such traders and authors. Unless the strategies that are
touted are definitely not up to par. I don't think Tony Oz's
strategies would be in that category. Or Don Bright's. Or most
of the "big names" that come to this board.

Myself, I am surprised that Tony Oz, ect. would even come to
this board. They don't have to. I myself am not paranoid that
he is here to take my money away from me. I can learn
things from him. I would rather read comments from the
likes of Tony than read relentless comments that don't teach
a single thing.

I admire the fact that Tony says he will stay here even if
there is some that think he shouldn't. Takes balls.

If someone doesn't like it, use the ignore function.

Everybody needs to lighten up and live/ let live. Freedom
should ring.

 

[jaan]

Originally posted by qwiktrade
thats a classic gap overnight setup.. its not as simple as filtering for stocks closing in the top 10% of their range..

yup, that's excatly where i was getting at with my question. perhaps i misunderstood him, but tony made it sound as if the close at top 10% was a bullish sign in this particular case, but in general case it clearly is not. so it would have been interesting to have him elaborate on this.

- jaan

 

[Harry]

The stock closed at the top 10% of its trading range which suggested an 85% chance of going higher the following day

When I read this statement I thought that it meant that there is a 85% chance of the stock having a higher high the next day than todays HIGH ...



Harry

 

[jaan]

Originally posted by Harry
When I read this statement I thought that it meant that there is a 85% chance of the stock having a higher high the next day than todays HIGH ...

well, that's most certainly not true. otherwise you could make a killing using today's high as your profit target, and having about 85% winners (dependig on your stoploss level).

- jaan

 

[Maxito]

"I also have to agree. Trying to drive away anyone that
posts here just because he/she has a book out, or a website
seems counterproductive to whatever can be learned from
such traders and authors."

It is sad that some have so much time and energy to tear others down! Honest questions are great, but just cutting someone down to look better yourself is a great dis-servce to this free board we are all using. IMHO.................