My energy trades

[TraDaToR]

Short NG Nov/Dec/Jan butterfly @ -0.003.

- This one is close to get positive which is highly unusual. It might simply be that the curve has to adjust to the last few up days in the front months.
- I understand that it can end up positive in the last month or so before expiry, but we are still far from october and there is a little short seasonal window before.

Out @ 0.008. Small loser. We are too close to expiry now.

 

[TraDaToR]

Short HO G/H/J butterfly @ -0.0035.

- Little kink on the deseasonalized curve
- "Big" volume at the top on 09-14.
- Seasonals

 

[maxinger]

What happened to Natural Gas ? Yesterday it went up suddenly

 

[TraDaToR]

"Futures are consolidating today after yesterday's short
covering rally as a result of stronger-than-anticipated power
burns," said Robert DiDona at Energy Ventures Analysis.
"The aftermath of Florence was expected to have a negative
impact on power burns. However, higher electric demand,
increasing nuclear outages, and underperforming wind generation
has bolstered power burn estimates and offset the storm's
impact."

Reuters. Don't know if it's the real explanation...

 

[TraDaToR]

Went long your spread @ -4185.8( Seasonalgo quote ), but on BZ and HO, which is pretty much the same.

By the way, I think OPEC production increase should be bearish for Brent curve.

I will probably exit this spread next week. It rallied nicely at first and now it is back to historical lows ( and my entry price ). Are you still in, Alex?

 

[TraDaToR]

Does anyone understand why China's decision to tax US LNG had such a bullish push on NG spreads on Sep 18th? I am missing something...

 

[maxinger]

Does anyone understand why China's decision to tax US LNG had such a bullish push on NG spreads on Sep 18th? I am missing something...

It is strange ... something happened on 18 Sept. and NG is still going up.

during non winter time, NG used to move a little.

 

[TraDaToR]

I will probably exit this spread next week. It rallied nicely at first and now it is back to historical lows ( and my entry price ). Are you still in, Alex?

Out@ -3827.6. Even if the level is still low, the delivery period and its volatility is getting too close. Still a little gain.

 

[Overnight]

It is strange ... something happened on 18 Sept. and NG is still going up.

during non winter time, NG used to move a little.

NG is truly a supply-and-demand market. And NG demand always goes up in the winter. If supply cannot meet the demand, then bang zoom, to the moon. Maybe look at how much NG we actually import. I suspect we are way more dependent on domestic supply over foreign imports. Fracking!

 

[TraDaToR]

I am wondering if we are not at the beginning of a new volatility era in natural gas :

- The deseasonalized curve is really bullish into mid'19, moderately bullish into mid'20.
- The spreads have really moved upwards since mid september.
- Outright prices( z18 for example ) have broken their 2 year consolidation range. If you have ever read Stan Weinstein book about stocks, that's how they enter a bull market.
- LNG seems booming( Sabine Pass in the US, Novatek in Yamal... ) despite the recent chinese tariff that may curb demand for US suppliers.
-Inventories are low compared to historical averages.

Thoughts?