My energy trades

TraDaToR

TraDaToR

Hello,

I wanted to create a thread dedicated to energy,similar to the one I made on the ag forum in 2014(https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/ag-trade-ideas.286103/).

On top of scalping, I trade mostly short or long term spreads and butterflies based on fundamentals, forward curve shape and seasonals. As I don't know as much in energy as in agriculture, I hope the seasoned traders here will join to criticize my trades and remind me of how dumb I am to pretend to transfer my ag spreads methodoly to the energy space.

Here its is :

Short NG Oct18/Apr19 @ 0.304:
-Seasonal window until mid july.
-Oct a little rich and Apr a little cheap on a deseasonalized curve.

:)
 
TraDaToR said:
Hello,

I wanted to create a thread dedicated to energy,similar to the one I made on the ag forum in 2014(https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/ag-trade-ideas.286103/).

On top of scalping, I trade mostly short or long term spreads and butterflies based on fundamentals, forward curve shape and seasonals. As I don't know as much in energy as in agriculture, I hope the seasoned traders here will join to criticize my trades and remind me of how dumb I am to pretend to transfer my ag spreads methodoly to the energy space.

Here its is :

Short NG Oct18/Apr19 @ 0.304:
-Seasonal window until mid july.
-Oct a little rich and Apr a little cheap on a deseasonalized curve.

:)
More...

What happened to Ags? Are you still trading them and trying to diversify?
 
Any inputs on the threat of tariff on chinese imports of US energy products? Crude oil, natural gas and gasoline are targeted whereas LNG is left for now. China has become the biggest net importer of US Shale oil. WTI/Brent suffering this morning but OPEC meeting later this week should create pressure on Brent as well...
 
I don't know the exact formula( I have it on Seasonalgo ), but I guess they just substract the average spread over x years between the first expiry and all the others. Not sure. Like if NG N18/Q18 = -0.004 but the average of this spread over x years is -0.004, then the deseasonalized curve will be flat.
 
Long ICE Gasoil Z8Z9/ Short ICE Brent Z8Z9
- near historical lows
- during summer/autumn Gasoil is stronger in this part of the curve

Small size, cause of OPEC.
 
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