My energy trades

Short NG Nov/Dec/Jan butterfly @ -0.003.

- This one is close to get positive which is highly unusual. It might simply be that the curve has to adjust to the last few up days in the front months.
- I understand that it can end up positive in the last month or so before expiry, but we are still far from october and there is a little short seasonal window before.
 
Why natural gas forward curve so inverted right now( '18 to '21 )? I get inventories are really low but production is also at record high. Early weather forecasts for next winter are mild.

Any insights about the long term picture compared to the last 5 years?
 
I haven't checked , but one year ago it wasn't the case. MMs are simply posting a spread where the implieds would be . It is the case in the grains but not energy.
 
I just read some opinions about the consequences of brexit on Brent. Apparently, given the current Brexit talks, the UK will be left "alone" next march tariff-wise. So any Brent importing country with no special tariff agreement will apply standard tariffs on UK crudes. It should depreciate Brent prices to the point that a discount to WTI can become common in the coming years. Thoughts?
 
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