My energy trades

Went long your spread @ -4185.8( Seasonalgo quote ), but on BZ and HO, which is pretty much the same.

By the way, I think OPEC production increase should be bearish for Brent curve.
 
Yes, if they will increase. I just try not speculate increase/decrease (or build/drawdown or whatever) as it never worked out for me in the past just caused a lot of trouble.
 
TraDaToR said:
...

Short NG Oct18/Apr19 @ 0.304:
-Seasonal window until mid july.
-Oct a little rich and Apr a little cheap on a deseasonalized curve.

:)
More...

I've been researching at seasonal energy spreads for a short while. With seasonal trades is it best to place your stop above the highest price for the last 10 years for this spread? I've attached a chart of your trade:

ag.jpg
 
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I don't place stops ( except for spreads subject to squeezes. Ex: Robusta Coffee ), but yes you should place your mental stop at a price highly unusual. You want to be really wrong when you are stopped. Adjust your profit target accordingly, it should be at a "normal" value...
 
TraDaToR said:
Hello,

I wanted to create a thread dedicated to energy,similar to the one I made on the ag forum in 2014(https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/ag-trade-ideas.286103/).

On top of scalping, I trade mostly short or long term spreads and butterflies based on fundamentals, forward curve shape and seasonals. As I don't know as much in energy as in agriculture, I hope the seasoned traders here will join to criticize my trades and remind me of how dumb I am to pretend to transfer my ag spreads methodoly to the energy space.

Here its is :

Short NG Oct18/Apr19 @ 0.304:
-Seasonal window until mid july.
-Oct a little rich and Apr a little cheap on a deseasonalized curve.

:)
More...

Out @ 0.170 after the bullish storage report.:)
 
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