As always take the following with caution, these comments more so than others.
It is always extremely low odds and high risk to bet on major turns in trends, but do see some decent signs that may be in process of major trend changes in many/most markets.
One opposite day from here and would have to change my view, but see signs stocks may be making significant bottom, same with dollar, while commodities, foreign currencies and precious metals may be making significant tops. Key probably will be crude, but see decent signs have made significant top there. Close under 130.00 would be fairly conclusive sign some kind of top in, and if this case would expect other markets to trend change as well.
Worth noting that any decent weakness from here in precious metals would create potentially very bearish patterns, same with currencies. Also worth noting commercials liquidated 6K longs and added 34K shorts in gold in most recent COT report and in past when have seen this very high level of switch to bearishness it has preceded good sell offs.
As said would only take one good day in opposite direction of this view to conclude it's wrong, but if should see decent strength in stocks and dollar, and decent weakness in others, over next few days would see good chance this trend change view might be right.
Major trend changes are always very difficult time to trade since normal trend following rules do not work, which have seen past week or so in number of markets. Bottom line here is if should see surprising strength near term in stocks and dollar and surprising weakness in currencies, precious metals, energies and commodities, now have type of patterns that could lead to sustained moves in these new directions, but next two, three days critical and could be completely wrong on this, and will be if markets go even moderately opposite.
Chick Goslin
