My Chick Goslin "Intelligent Futures Trading" Journal
- Thread starter AshanD
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Thanks HSC, good luck to you also.
I closed the wheat trade for slight profits yesterday. Looks like it fell pretty hard today along with corn. The move is news related though so very unreliable, if the short term lines were more positive I might have longed some corn here.
I am not interested in any other markets right now except the currencies, metals, coffee, and copper.
Copper has been rallying nicely but is too high to buy, I need a dip to get in and that doesn't look like it may happen.
Coffee had a large 2 sided day that closed up from its lows. I think the longer term outlook here is still good so I'm holding onto my contracts with stops at 1.4970.
Euro had a small down day, nothing too eventful. ML is strengthening in this market and trend will turn up in about a week, especially if we get any mroe strength in this market. Holding my 3 contracts with wide stops and still expecting a large rally soon.
The metals were all down today. Gold was down only a small amount but silver fell decently, which is negative for the group because silver tends to lead. However platinum also tends to lead gold and was up a small amount today so the relative strength for today cancels. On a line basis the upside potential is still very strong in gold so I'm also holding these longs with wide stops.
I closed the wheat trade for slight profits yesterday. Looks like it fell pretty hard today along with corn. The move is news related though so very unreliable, if the short term lines were more positive I might have longed some corn here.
I am not interested in any other markets right now except the currencies, metals, coffee, and copper.
Copper has been rallying nicely but is too high to buy, I need a dip to get in and that doesn't look like it may happen.
Coffee had a large 2 sided day that closed up from its lows. I think the longer term outlook here is still good so I'm holding onto my contracts with stops at 1.4970.
Euro had a small down day, nothing too eventful. ML is strengthening in this market and trend will turn up in about a week, especially if we get any mroe strength in this market. Holding my 3 contracts with wide stops and still expecting a large rally soon.
The metals were all down today. Gold was down only a small amount but silver fell decently, which is negative for the group because silver tends to lead. However platinum also tends to lead gold and was up a small amount today so the relative strength for today cancels. On a line basis the upside potential is still very strong in gold so I'm also holding these longs with wide stops.
Chick put out another letter today mentioning that now is a tough situation with price/SL on highs and it may be wise to take partial or complete profits in currencies and metals. The euro has not been performing that well, which I thought wasn't that bad because it's pretty typical for these larger market moves to operate on their own time frame instead of what a trader may want. But if Chick starts getting suspicious, then I get very suspicious. All 3 contracts cashed out for about 55 tick gain each. Was hoping for a much larger move but plans just have to change according to market conditions.
Gold was doing very well and I thought it looked to be on a solid upside breakout. Chick's commentary regarding the situation:
I agree with him and have cashed both gold contracts for good profits (by swing trading standards) at 941.9.
Coffee will also be cashed tonight for decent profits. Looking over the markets I don't see anything I like so it's back to cash for right now.
Gold was doing very well and I thought it looked to be on a solid upside breakout. Chick's commentary regarding the situation:
I agree with him and have cashed both gold contracts for good profits (by swing trading standards) at 941.9.
Coffee will also be cashed tonight for decent profits. Looking over the markets I don't see anything I like so it's back to cash for right now.
I started this journal on the 3rd of last month, so this month will not give a perfect sample of my trading. But here is a rundown of my results for this last month.
Balance on 6/1/08: $69490. 6/3 was close to this so in my original post, the "estimate" at $67,000 was off by about $2500. This is about in line with how I mentally estimate my balance. I tend to overestimate losses and underestimate wins so that I never get "sticker shock" (the negative kind anyways)
Balance on 7/1/08: $93,700.
Withdrawals during this time: $3,000
This means a net gain of $27,210 this month.
I am blown away by this. Such a strong gain is not at all normal for me. To prevent my own ego from swelling and causing damage to my account (which has happened before, several times) I will say right now that I'm almost certain this next month will not have the same results.
Now that I've grounded myself I'll also say this. This journal has had a profound effect on my trading. I remember Chick Goslin writing of a period when he lost his trading ability and went into a severe drawdown. He was able to fix his problem by literally traveling to a cabin in the mountains and writing his first trading book.
I am thinking now that this journal may be my own equivalent. It's essentially my log of experiences of what I've done, what I was thinking at the time, what has worked and what didn't. It worked for Chick by helping him regain his sense of what it was that made money, gave him the edge he needed to play a very tough game, and win at it consistently.
I feel that is exactly what I am doing now by writing my daily analysis here. In my offline journal I mechanically break down what I see in the markets. based on that analysis I decide if it is appropriate to try a trade out, and how much I can fairly risk given the situation. This helps with abiding by rules and having a disciplined approach to trading, which is often tough with a subjective method.
In this online journal, I get the creative freedom I need to peer beyond that and figure out all the nuisances of the process of trading profitably. Together, these logs should be quite a powerful combination.
i especially enjoy going over my own posts here to see what I had been thinking before. It helps a lot. Hopefully much later into the future I can look back on these entries one day with a nostalgic memory of the path I took to create my wealth. That's the plan anyways!
Ok, enough gloating. No more trades planned for today but the usual rundown will be up tomorrow.
Balance on 6/1/08: $69490. 6/3 was close to this so in my original post, the "estimate" at $67,000 was off by about $2500. This is about in line with how I mentally estimate my balance. I tend to overestimate losses and underestimate wins so that I never get "sticker shock" (the negative kind anyways)
Balance on 7/1/08: $93,700.
Withdrawals during this time: $3,000
This means a net gain of $27,210 this month.
I am blown away by this. Such a strong gain is not at all normal for me. To prevent my own ego from swelling and causing damage to my account (which has happened before, several times) I will say right now that I'm almost certain this next month will not have the same results.
Now that I've grounded myself I'll also say this. This journal has had a profound effect on my trading. I remember Chick Goslin writing of a period when he lost his trading ability and went into a severe drawdown. He was able to fix his problem by literally traveling to a cabin in the mountains and writing his first trading book.
I am thinking now that this journal may be my own equivalent. It's essentially my log of experiences of what I've done, what I was thinking at the time, what has worked and what didn't. It worked for Chick by helping him regain his sense of what it was that made money, gave him the edge he needed to play a very tough game, and win at it consistently.
I feel that is exactly what I am doing now by writing my daily analysis here. In my offline journal I mechanically break down what I see in the markets. based on that analysis I decide if it is appropriate to try a trade out, and how much I can fairly risk given the situation. This helps with abiding by rules and having a disciplined approach to trading, which is often tough with a subjective method.
In this online journal, I get the creative freedom I need to peer beyond that and figure out all the nuisances of the process of trading profitably. Together, these logs should be quite a powerful combination.
i especially enjoy going over my own posts here to see what I had been thinking before. It helps a lot. Hopefully much later into the future I can look back on these entries one day with a nostalgic memory of the path I took to create my wealth. That's the plan anyways!
Ok, enough gloating. No more trades planned for today but the usual rundown will be up tomorrow.
Congrats on a well organised thread and results for June.
Will you maintain your contract levels of exposure as you had them for June or increase them ,reflecting your increased capital base?
Will you maintain your contract levels of exposure as you had them for June or increase them ,reflecting your increased capital base?
Thanks, I plan to actually reduce my exposure for at least a week. This is because I tend to give back profits after a good period, this is a very consistent pattern with me. After that I'll probably trade about the same as before because I already trade on the heavy side for the size of my account. I may add more contracts when I reach around the $130,000 level, that seems like a level that I would be comfortable trading incrementally larger (not too much though)
My late night decisions have been sketchy so far. Right now I decided to hold 1 coffee contract and sell one at 1.5450. I feel there is still good upside potential in this market. Only problem is a lot of recent upside, and now Sl coming down off of recent highs. But a strong upside move can bypass this short term warning signal.
I also felt that gold had dipped a good amount enough to try a light long again at 934.9. Gold did have a solid enough picture that I was comfortable being long before, I just decided to play safe. Buying at a "good" price allows me to keep a tighter stop that will still exit at a price I feel shifts the downside pressure too much, and retain a better reward on the upside. This is of course assuming I read this correctly as a dip.
Very glad I didn't anticipate the sugar trade 2 days ago (big spike happened yesterday), the downside was somewhat tempting but I reminded myself that the picture still was not solid enough to the downside, ML was postioned to turn down in a week or so but only if SL continued down, which it looked like it would probably do (but again this is more anticipation)
When I do these mental restrictions I usually don't believe myself, like when you "know" that you shouldn't do something but you intuitively feel that it is really ok to do it. This time listening to that little voice saved me from a trade that would have been stopped out immediately.
My late night decisions have been sketchy so far. Right now I decided to hold 1 coffee contract and sell one at 1.5450. I feel there is still good upside potential in this market. Only problem is a lot of recent upside, and now Sl coming down off of recent highs. But a strong upside move can bypass this short term warning signal.
I also felt that gold had dipped a good amount enough to try a light long again at 934.9. Gold did have a solid enough picture that I was comfortable being long before, I just decided to play safe. Buying at a "good" price allows me to keep a tighter stop that will still exit at a price I feel shifts the downside pressure too much, and retain a better reward on the upside. This is of course assuming I read this correctly as a dip.
Very glad I didn't anticipate the sugar trade 2 days ago (big spike happened yesterday), the downside was somewhat tempting but I reminded myself that the picture still was not solid enough to the downside, ML was postioned to turn down in a week or so but only if SL continued down, which it looked like it would probably do (but again this is more anticipation)
When I do these mental restrictions I usually don't believe myself, like when you "know" that you shouldn't do something but you intuitively feel that it is really ok to do it. This time listening to that little voice saved me from a trade that would have been stopped out immediately.
Coffee held about even today. I want to sell it to lighten up on my positions, even though I feel this is a good long term trade.
Gold was about neutral today but buying at a really good price returned a decent gain. SL is on highs now and turning down so I donât want to stay in any longer, even though the upside picture is still excellent (if the trend is anticipated up, which Chick notes is not equal to the trend actually being up even if there is a strong case) This trade has made me realize the importance of watching the markets for opportunities to get in at a good price on otherwise unacceptable R/R situations. Open E Cry allows me to set up a price alert along with audible noises so it look like Iâll be having many nights of interrupted sleep in the future
Iâm really trying to play cautiously this week because there are a lot of dangerous elements going on right now.
1) I checked my account balance. What this effectively does is make losses more difficult to stomach (which causes emotional decision making) because I feel my new balance diminishing. When Iâve been trading for a week or 2 without checking my balance a loss does not affect me as much because I donât really know where my balance is anyways, and realize that losses are just part of the variance of trading. Ironically this is a solid mindset for trading productively.
2) Iâm very close to breaking $100,000 again and this may cause me to start lowering my risk/reward tolerance like I believe I did before. Iâm still pretty psyched up after my record setting month and this just adds to this.
3)All markets are once again unappealing (some have minor cases actually). And the week after a very good week is when I start giving back money. I even have a log of me saying this and then still losing money in the journal which is either humorous or embarrassing (see my 6/10 and 6/11 entry followed by what happens in 6/17 and 6/18)
4) Buying at a good price this AM has struck an epiphany just like momentum orders and pivot points in the past. And just like those 2 have resulted, this strategy can be profitable when used correctly, or lose money when used incorrectly. I could definitely see myself overusing dip/rally buying in marginal situations and then getting stopped out the next day or stuck in a trade that is lingering around with a poor risk reward.
When I try to get a good price, I am going against short term price momentum, so I better be pretty sure that Iâm catching a dip/rally and not trying to get a âdealâ in a market that is just winding up (good risk management should help with this). Also trying to trade these intraday moves once again reeks of day trading behavior, which will erode my edge again. I have to be smart about using this new tool in the arsenal.
The goal for this week is to just trade smart. It shouldnât be that hard right? Iâm not a clueless newb, I know what Iâm doing. But some extra restrictions are still in order. Iâll go light on any positions for this week and then if my balance is intact, Iâll go back to normal next week. I really would like to break $100,000 without some surprise drama. We'll see if I can keep things nice and boring for a week.
Gold was about neutral today but buying at a really good price returned a decent gain. SL is on highs now and turning down so I donât want to stay in any longer, even though the upside picture is still excellent (if the trend is anticipated up, which Chick notes is not equal to the trend actually being up even if there is a strong case) This trade has made me realize the importance of watching the markets for opportunities to get in at a good price on otherwise unacceptable R/R situations. Open E Cry allows me to set up a price alert along with audible noises so it look like Iâll be having many nights of interrupted sleep in the future
Iâm really trying to play cautiously this week because there are a lot of dangerous elements going on right now.
1) I checked my account balance. What this effectively does is make losses more difficult to stomach (which causes emotional decision making) because I feel my new balance diminishing. When Iâve been trading for a week or 2 without checking my balance a loss does not affect me as much because I donât really know where my balance is anyways, and realize that losses are just part of the variance of trading. Ironically this is a solid mindset for trading productively.
2) Iâm very close to breaking $100,000 again and this may cause me to start lowering my risk/reward tolerance like I believe I did before. Iâm still pretty psyched up after my record setting month and this just adds to this.
3)All markets are once again unappealing (some have minor cases actually). And the week after a very good week is when I start giving back money. I even have a log of me saying this and then still losing money in the journal which is either humorous or embarrassing (see my 6/10 and 6/11 entry followed by what happens in 6/17 and 6/18)
4) Buying at a good price this AM has struck an epiphany just like momentum orders and pivot points in the past. And just like those 2 have resulted, this strategy can be profitable when used correctly, or lose money when used incorrectly. I could definitely see myself overusing dip/rally buying in marginal situations and then getting stopped out the next day or stuck in a trade that is lingering around with a poor risk reward.
When I try to get a good price, I am going against short term price momentum, so I better be pretty sure that Iâm catching a dip/rally and not trying to get a âdealâ in a market that is just winding up (good risk management should help with this). Also trying to trade these intraday moves once again reeks of day trading behavior, which will erode my edge again. I have to be smart about using this new tool in the arsenal.
The goal for this week is to just trade smart. It shouldnât be that hard right? Iâm not a clueless newb, I know what Iâm doing. But some extra restrictions are still in order. Iâll go light on any positions for this week and then if my balance is intact, Iâll go back to normal next week. I really would like to break $100,000 without some surprise drama. We'll see if I can keep things nice and boring for a week.
Thanks Turbovach, we're all students of this game and I'm glad that others are getting something out of this journal. I know I certainly am.
Once again the journal saves me again. I acknowledged that market conditions were unfavorable and that I really needed to refrain from trading too heavy this week, and today's down day left me relatively unaffected. One coffee was stopped out for a small loss at 1.5145. This is a small loss since i bought at 1.5180, but it feels bigger than usual knowing that I lost about 4 points profit that felt "locked in"
On the other hand I did get lucky tonight, I saw late at night that the euro and swiss were both holding their level but the pound dropped about 50 points into the 197.75 area. When it got down to 1.9745 I set up a limit buy on 2 contracts at another 10 ticks down, a level which the pound had already crossed when I was not looking at the market. This was a bad trading decision because I missed the trade on the hope of squeezing out slightly extra profits, but the trade turned out to be a loser today.
I also see that if I would have bought at 197.35, my losses would have been small. Therefore even though I knew that buying in a situation where price flow was overextended carried lower odds of a good postion the next day, this was somewhat negated because the price I got in at was so good that the trade would really have to do bad to cause a "normal" sized loss. Chick trades this way all the time, I tried to avoid it because I remember watching intraday swings and the emotions they would bring sometimes. Very painful to swing trade that way. But the way I'm doing now of just watching the less volatile aftermarket isn't so bad.
Thinking of these "good price trades" I've been doing recently, I've found that I now have 3 ways of entering orders.
1. At market, which is usually justified based on a solid pattern in the daily charts. Usually I like to get in on a good interday dip situation so going in at market actually tends to give a good price, at least it does when I'm right
2. Momentum orders, which get in at a bad price but one that is (hopefully) indicative of strong short term price flow to one side. These orders will usually block a trade from executing when the market instantly goes against me, but results after the trade executes are still mixed. They worked really well at first so I think they are excellent orders when I am scared of using them, ie when I use them only in very good situations that have a strong case for a short term price spike.
3. Buying at a cheap price on an aftermarket dip. Not much experience with this strategy yet, but Chick using it often is enough for me to give this method some serious trial and error. What I have to find out is 1) Am I going to miss some good trades now by trying for these intraday dips too much 2) Does getting into these trades put me in trades with poorer odds 3) Does (assumably) the superior risk/reward of a better price offset the decreased odds in these trades?
Teach me the answers Mr. Market
Once again the journal saves me again. I acknowledged that market conditions were unfavorable and that I really needed to refrain from trading too heavy this week, and today's down day left me relatively unaffected. One coffee was stopped out for a small loss at 1.5145. This is a small loss since i bought at 1.5180, but it feels bigger than usual knowing that I lost about 4 points profit that felt "locked in"
On the other hand I did get lucky tonight, I saw late at night that the euro and swiss were both holding their level but the pound dropped about 50 points into the 197.75 area. When it got down to 1.9745 I set up a limit buy on 2 contracts at another 10 ticks down, a level which the pound had already crossed when I was not looking at the market. This was a bad trading decision because I missed the trade on the hope of squeezing out slightly extra profits, but the trade turned out to be a loser today.
I also see that if I would have bought at 197.35, my losses would have been small. Therefore even though I knew that buying in a situation where price flow was overextended carried lower odds of a good postion the next day, this was somewhat negated because the price I got in at was so good that the trade would really have to do bad to cause a "normal" sized loss. Chick trades this way all the time, I tried to avoid it because I remember watching intraday swings and the emotions they would bring sometimes. Very painful to swing trade that way. But the way I'm doing now of just watching the less volatile aftermarket isn't so bad.
Thinking of these "good price trades" I've been doing recently, I've found that I now have 3 ways of entering orders.
1. At market, which is usually justified based on a solid pattern in the daily charts. Usually I like to get in on a good interday dip situation so going in at market actually tends to give a good price, at least it does when I'm right
2. Momentum orders, which get in at a bad price but one that is (hopefully) indicative of strong short term price flow to one side. These orders will usually block a trade from executing when the market instantly goes against me, but results after the trade executes are still mixed. They worked really well at first so I think they are excellent orders when I am scared of using them, ie when I use them only in very good situations that have a strong case for a short term price spike.
3. Buying at a cheap price on an aftermarket dip. Not much experience with this strategy yet, but Chick using it often is enough for me to give this method some serious trial and error. What I have to find out is 1) Am I going to miss some good trades now by trying for these intraday dips too much 2) Does getting into these trades put me in trades with poorer odds 3) Does (assumably) the superior risk/reward of a better price offset the decreased odds in these trades?
Teach me the answers Mr. Market
Most markets are still in a precarious situation. I like Yen on the downside and will probably short it on Sunday. I longed a pound contract because it was at a good price and I feel there is an OK case for the upside. This a "catching falling knife" scenario with yesterday being a big down day in the euro currencies and the pound breaking through old resistance levels and creating an "island" up top.
But these patterns are always easy to identify afterwards (This could be a false island) I am buying at a good price so downside risk is somewhat lessoned, and even moreso, yesterday qualifies as a "news spike" and therefore has a good chance of reversing quickly. I don't like like the euro and swiss patterns are now showing downside warning signs, but I think this contract has enough positives (Sl on series of higher lows/highs, ML up, TL slightly up) to be lightly long.
But these patterns are always easy to identify afterwards (This could be a false island) I am buying at a good price so downside risk is somewhat lessoned, and even moreso, yesterday qualifies as a "news spike" and therefore has a good chance of reversing quickly. I don't like like the euro and swiss patterns are now showing downside warning signs, but I think this contract has enough positives (Sl on series of higher lows/highs, ML up, TL slightly up) to be lightly long.