MSTR -- To get out or not...

johnarb said:
If bitcoin goes to 40k, that will be very bad! For mstr and for all the crypto bros! Do you think bitcoin will go to 40k? What time frame?



Yes, bitcoin going up is very good for mstr as the company owns a lot of bitcoins over 200,000 bitcoins

Let's hope bitcoin goes up in price not down!



mstr just issued debt to buy more bitcoins and that deal just closed yesterday, so we're hoping mstr bitcoin purchase today or over the next few days will be enough to push bitcoin back up!

Let us all pray together for bitcoin to go back up again! for mstr and for all the crypto assets!
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Be nice if 61 or 62 held.

*makes sign of the cross*.
 
johnarb said:
mstr at $122,285 per share when bitcoin hits $1,000,000/btc

I won't be holding any mstr or options when that happens, but that would be very nice for all the mstr employees and shareholders


https://twitter.com/x/status/1770797173535396306
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My brain struggles to comprehend such rapid appreciation,but to give a recent example from the crypto world(and 'the one that got away' for me)Arcblock:
upload_2024-3-22_1-52-19.png



About 11 cents in mid December and $2.25 on 23rd Feb.

This is not a pump and dump project,been around since 2019 and is backed by a bunch of PHD's.

I use it to illustrate that rapid appreciation can happen in an instant.Its also a good reminder to be wary of trying to time anything in this space.So easy to wake up and have missed the bus.
 
Seems the comments section turned into quite a heated topic over at Seeking Alpha on this one. :D

MicroStrategy: A Bad Deal For Investors
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4679576-microstrategy-bad-deal-for-investors

  • MicroStrategy is the largest corporate owner of Bitcoin and just raised more than $600M in additional funds through convertible bonds to buy BTC.
  • The firm also offers business intelligence/analytics solutions and targets the enterprise segment for its services.
  • Holding a large amount of Bitcoin on its balance sheet creates unique asset concentration risks for MicroStrategy.
  • MSTR share price has decoupled from the Bitcoin price, indicating bubble territory. BTC enthusiasts also have no reason to buy Bitcoin through a corporate structure.
  • At a BTC price of $62k, I believe shares of MicroStrategy have approximately 30% downside.
 
llIHeroic said:
This was tough to trade with volatility so jacked. Scratched 3 times trying to catch the turn but finally got up to size yesterday:

View attachment 336384

Long 500 shares @ $1500 and just spread off the rest of my risk at ~$1300. This was a fun one guys!
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Nice! Looks like you made profits, belated congratulations!

I couldn't really understand your position, looked like you had 30 puts, then went long 500 shares @1500,, if the puts were entered (near) atm, you were short 1500 delta?

Way out of my options knowledge, which is why I buy and hold, go long calls or puts only

But ngl, last week was painful with btc going down a lot, mstr followed, lost over $300k paper profits m2m, today much better


upload_2024-3-25_22-55-7.png
 
Yeah, I bought several batches of long puts, and then started buying shares to flatten my risk after I was sitting on decent gains. MSTR has shown surprising strength, the NAV premium is more persistent than I initially expected and it's correlation to BTC lends it a lot of strength.

I don't think it will trade at a premium to its BTC holdings forever but after seeing it catch such a strong bid on any BTC rally, it's not clear to me how to structure a trade to capture the repricing. I think maybe I will go long BTC and just write MSTR calls against it, and plan on holding the trade for a while.

Glad to see your position bounced back. I'll be honest john I will feel relieved when you are in BTC instead of MSTR but your conviction here is what got you all these unrealized gains in the first place so I hope that keeps up for you until your exit.
 
llIHeroic said:
Yeah, I bought several batches of long puts, and then started buying shares to flatten my risk after I was sitting on decent gains. MSTR has shown surprising strength, the NAV premium is more persistent than I initially expected and it's correlation to BTC lends it a lot of strength.

I don't think it will trade at a premium to its BTC holdings forever but after seeing it catch such a strong bid on any BTC rally, it's not clear to me how to structure a trade to capture the repricing. I think maybe I will go long BTC and just write MSTR calls against it, and plan on holding the trade for a while.

Glad to see your position bounced back. I'll be honest john I will feel relieved when you are in BTC instead of MSTR but your conviction here is what got you all these unrealized gains in the first place so I hope that keeps up for you until your exit.
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Thank you very much, Heroic!!!!

I believe there's a few reasons why mstr is trading at a premium
  • European countries unable to invest in the bitcoin spot etf's ,but able to with mstr
  • Bond funds able to ape into mstr debt offerings and becomes a reflexive loop when performance of the bonds outperform even hot tech stocks within a couple of weeks time
  • Bitcoin maxis buying mstr as a leverage position
  • Other equities-only investors seeing mstr as a leverage investment to btc versus bitcoin spot etf's, the former has no fees and can borrow and/or issue stocks to increase the btc holdings vs the latter that do not have the same capabilities
  • The possibility of mstr being added to the s&p 500 and the mstr price is trading in anticipation of the news
The next 60 days is a good time period for mstr to hit $3k or higher

After the halving in a month, bitcoin could rally to much higher price and if gbtc continues its big outflows, it could be completely out of bitcoins within 2 months or at least at a very small btc holding that it's an insignificant seller

just some random thoughts but I have mental plans to help me get through the mstr volatility of the next 60 days
 
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