MSTR -- To get out or not...

[The_Krakenite]

So this weekend I was doing some thinking on MSTR. It seems day by day I just lose more paper-profits as people continue to sell off in order to rotate their capital into the Bitcoin ETFs. This is something I worried may happen.

The MER is free in MSTR, but I understand people believe the ETFs are risk-free. I don't buy that though, as institutions have done many stupid things in the past with wrapped crypto securities.

I decided on the weekend I would plan for an exit this morning. Well, before markets even opened, the bad news hit the scene that MSTR already got hacked. Supposedly it was only for under half a million, (done through a phishing email of all things).

A little more in news, I see there has been some more negativity of Saylor supposedly selling shares on the market.

I was expecting a huge gap-down in the stock today, but ironically it shot up despite the hack (I am pretty certain the up-tick is due to Bitcoin's huge rally again today).

Any short-put should have got cheaper to cover though the price to close shot up too, obviously this had to be the vol.

At this point, I feel like I am totally out of my league in predicting how MSTR should go. Do I even know what I am doing anymore?

Thoughts on MSTR? It's a lot of capital in margin to hold onto long-dated short-puts. I don't see that many MSTR 'specialist' traders on here.

 

[maxinger]

I would take a partially huge profit.
And hold on to the remaining quantity for further upside potential.

 

[deaddog]

At this point, I feel like I am totally out of my league in predicting how MSTR should go. Do I even know what I am doing anymore?

Thoughts on MSTR? It's a lot of capital in margin to hold onto long-dated short-puts. I don't see that many MSTR 'specialist' traders on here.

LOL!!

Fear and Greed raising their ugly heads.

What does your plan tell you to do.

 

[johnarb]

Don't let the pussies scare you out. Fucking add on dips

 

[SunTrader]

Weekly chart shows price closed right near current resistance. If it breaks has a lot of room to run. It already pulled back from Feb 15th high and tested resistance now turned to support. So there is that. And also last week's volume (4 trading days vs usual 5) was about one third the prior week so no big selling to speak of. HOLDddddddddddd

But if MAG 7 get a serious correction (its coming at some point) "all bets are off".

 

[TrailerParkTed]

So this weekend I was doing some thinking on MSTR. It seems day by day I just lose more paper-profits as people continue to sell off in order to rotate their capital into the Bitcoin ETFs. This is something I worried may happen.

The MER is free in MSTR, but I understand people believe the ETFs are risk-free. I don't buy that though, as institutions have done many stupid things in the past with wrapped crypto securities.

I decided on the weekend I would plan for an exit this morning. Well, before markets even opened, the bad news hit the scene that MSTR already got hacked. Supposedly it was only for under half a million, (done through a phishing email of all things).

A little more in news, I see there has been some more negativity of Saylor supposedly selling shares on the market.

I was expecting a huge gap-down in the stock today, but ironically it shot up despite the hack (I am pretty certain the up-tick is due to Bitcoin's huge rally again today).

Any short-put should have got cheaper to cover though the price to close shot up too, obviously this had to be the vol.

At this point, I feel like I am totally out of my league in predicting how MSTR should go. Do I even know what I am doing anymore?

Thoughts on MSTR? It's a lot of capital in margin to hold onto long-dated short-puts. I don't see that many MSTR 'specialist' traders on here.


View attachment 334846

I have MSTR after adding more Friday basis is $400, CLSK $8(Tax lots $4-$15), MARA, RIOT. I have no idea what they do other than go up. None of mine is on margin, Max gave you wise advice!

 

[Baron]

Thoughts on MSTR?

I would never let my MSTR go if I were you. As johnarb said, it totally makes way more sense to add on dips that to just sell out, and this is especially true if you understand the underlying fundamentals of BTC that MSTR has leveraged their entire operation on.

 

[schizo]

Thoughts on MSTR? It's a lot of capital in margin to hold onto long-dated short-puts. I don't see that many MSTR 'specialist' traders on here.

@johnarb mentioned in the Crypto Winter thread that MSTR is actually buying more BTC.

The icing on the cake is Microstrategy announcing it has bought already another $150M worth of bitcoins

Plus they both exploded higher today. But just look at the difference. Holy crap! Only 6.9% for BTC (did I say only? ) but whopping 15.7% for MSTR!

 

[BKR88]

So this weekend I was doing some thinking on MSTR. It seems day by day I just lose more paper-profits as people continue to sell off in order to rotate their capital into the Bitcoin ETFs. This is something I worried may happen.

The MER is free in MSTR, but I understand people believe the ETFs are risk-free. I don't buy that though, as institutions have done many stupid things in the past with wrapped crypto securities.

I decided on the weekend I would plan for an exit this morning. Well, before markets even opened, the bad news hit the scene that MSTR already got hacked. Supposedly it was only for under half a million, (done through a phishing email of all things).

A little more in news, I see there has been some more negativity of Saylor supposedly selling shares on the market.

I was expecting a huge gap-down in the stock today, but ironically it shot up despite the hack (I am pretty certain the up-tick is due to Bitcoin's huge rally again today).

Any short-put should have got cheaper to cover though the price to close shot up too, obviously this had to be the vol.

At this point, I feel like I am totally out of my league in predicting how MSTR should go. Do I even know what I am doing anymore?

Thoughts on MSTR? It's a lot of capital in margin to hold onto long-dated short-puts. I don't see that many MSTR 'specialist' traders on here.


View attachment 334846

I moved most out of individual names and into BITQ.
Easier to hold an ETF for the long term when you don’t have to watch individual company news.
BITQ has a .85% fee which is OK for the amount this market moves in a year. 10% is in MSTR. Up nearly 14% yesterday.

……………………………

Peter admits he’s wrong on 50% of his trades but he correctly called the breakout move in Nikkei market Dec. 2023.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762303814156308957

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760868565409059050

 

[johnarb]

Any short-put should have got cheaper to cover though the price to close shot up too, obviously this had to be the vol.

At this point, I feel like I am totally out of my league in predicting how MSTR should go. Do I even know what I am doing anymore?

Thoughts on MSTR? It's a lot of capital in margin to hold onto long-dated short-puts. I don't see that many MSTR 'specialist' traders on here.

You're fighting too many battles being short puts on MSTR, directionally, you're long delta, but also short volatility and MSTR has moved 100 points in a day twice in the last 3 months from what I remember so the IV premium has shot up as well, but you already know that as you're unable to close the short puts "cheaper"

Bitcoin is long volatility asset, MSTR is leveraged long Bitcoin, and MSTR options are leveraged long MSTR, so you are basically leveraged short squared volatility

I have a call options position on MSTR that I said could hit $1M value, and it was m2m position value was as low as $6k, which I said if it hits would be 15,000% in 6 months. It has since gone up 1,500% from that low m2m value, so I only have 1000% move to go and still have over 5 months left to expiration

During the bull market, long leverage squared long Bitcoin volatility is the correct play, not short

[*$500M not $1B]