MSTR -- To get out or not...

[TrailerParkTed]

It looks like another awesome day today for MSTR, Robinhood already showing MSTR at over $1040/share

I think it's perfectly reasonable for MSTR to go over $2000/share in the next 5 months and my call options position that was worth $6,000 a few weeks ago will be worth $1M, already it was as high as $227,000 yesterday, hmmmm...

I'm already counting all the eggs in the basket, fuck it, Let's FUCKING GO! Bitcoin bull market is the best!!!!


View attachment 335036

$100,000 BTC
https://www.starwars.com/video/one-in-a-million-shot

 

[johnarb]

MSTR all time high is $3000 during the dot com bubble,all a matter of time, which I only have 5 months left, but $3,000/share MSTR is $2M profit for me, hmmmnn

I don't want to be greedy, so I think I'll start cashing out at my target and buying some bitcoins while awaiting tax bill in 2025. Bitcoin have no expiration

https://twitter.com/x/status/1763670368638709873

https://twitter.com/x/status/1763589531129856480

 

[newwurldmn]

MSTR all time high is $3000 during the dot com bubble,all a matter of time, which I only have 5 months left, but $3,000/share MSTR is $2M profit for me, hmmmnn

I don't want to be greedy, so I think I'll start cashing out at my target and buying some bitcoins while awaiting tax bill in 2025. Bitcoin have no expiration

https://twitter.com/x/status/1763670368638709873

https://twitter.com/x/status/1763589531129856480

View attachment 335156

for MSTR to get to 3,000 bitcoin has to triple in value.

mstr is trading at a slight premium to its bitcoin holdings if you assume the core business is stable.

 

[johnarb]

for MSTR to get to 3,000 bitcoin has to triple in value.

mstr is trading at a slight premium to its bitcoin holdings if you assume the core business is stable.

This is incorrect

For every $5200 up move in price of bitcoin, mstr makes $1B unrealized profits, which is 20 years of the stable business operating profits

mstr currently has 90-100 years business stable income of unrealized profits on bitcoin holdings

mstr treasury of bitcoins is worth over 200 years of stable business income

Bitcoin hits $85k, that's another 100 years worth of stable business income in unrealized profits

And that's assuming mstr does not issue debt, sell shares to buy more bitcoins before that happens

All of these are numbers from memory, but my gut feeling is that mstr hits $3000/share if bitcoin is $90-120k


[but not to give any impression I like mstr that much... at the end of the day and with all due respect to mstr and saylor, this is not a long term relationship and will part ways with all things mstr... heart belongs to Bitcoin]

 

[newwurldmn]

This is incorrect

For every $5200 up move in price of bitcoin, mstr makes $1B unrealized profits, which is 20 years of the stable business operating profits

mstr currently has 90-100 years business stable income of unrealized profits on bitcoin holdings

mstr treasury of bitcoins is worth over 200 years of stable business income

Bitcoin hits $85k, that's another 100 years worth of stable business income in unrealized profits

And that's assuming mstr does not issue debt, sell shares to buy more bitcoins before that happens

All of these are numbers from memory, but my gut feeling is that mstr hits $3000/share if bitcoin is $90-120k


[but not to give any impression I like mstr that much... at the end of the day and with all due respect to mstr and saylor, this is not a long term relationship and will part ways with all things mstr... heart belongs to Bitcoin]

is this girl math?

mstr is a basket of a business and an asset.

the business is worth X (multiple of cash flows).
The asset (bitcoin) should be valued at market value minus a liquidation haircut.

you can’t say “mstrs bitcoin went up a billion dollars so the business gets a PE on that).”

in theory I can buy mstr and short bitcoin and have exposure to just the business performance. Any deviation from that would be a trading opportunity.

 

[johnarb]

is this girl math?

mstr is a basket of a business and an asset.

the business is worth X (multiple of cash flows).
The asset (bitcoin) should be valued at market value minus a liquidation haircut.

you can’t say “mstrs bitcoin went up a billion dollars so the business gets a PE on that).”

in theory I can buy mstr and short bitcoin and have exposure to just the business performance. Any deviation from that would be a trading opportunity.

big girl math

 

[The_Krakenite]

 

[nitrene]

No point is selling crypto stocks until the cycle ends. Just triggers more capital gains taxes. The last cycle peak to peak was about 3.5X (69K/20K), if it repeats it will likely peak around 200K-250K. That could mean MSTR at $4K-$8K. Maybe MARA will get to $200.

 

[S2007S]

No point is selling crypto stocks until the cycle ends. Just triggers more capital gains taxes. The last cycle peak to peak was about 3.5X (69K/20K), if it repeats it will likely peak around 200K-250K. That could mean MSTR at $4K-$8K. Maybe MARA will get to $200.

The amount of millionaires is going to be absolutely mind boggling as this bull market in all asset classes just keeps going and going and going, absolutely no ending in sight!!
That means with all these assets classes creating goober amounts of millionaires are going to have to contend with higher than normal prices of goods and services for quite some time....in fact irrational exuberance might be the key phrase moving forward, uhh ohhh. Too many rich people from all these Ludacris returns is going to keep the fed on edge, keep your awareness heightened as the continuation of these super duper times create inflationary pressures for all to come!!

 

[Zwaen]

The amount of millionaires is going to be absolutely mind boggling as this bull market in all asset classes just keeps going and going and going, absolutely no ending in sight!!
That means with all these assets classes creating goober amounts of millionaires are going to have to contend with higher than normal prices of goods and services for quite some time....in fact irrational exuberance might be the key phrase moving forward, uhh ohhh. Too many rich people from all these Ludacris returns is going to keep the fed on edge, keep your awareness heightened as the continuation of these super duper times create inflationary pressures for all to come!!

Above a certain income level-it’s really all about your relative level to your surroundings/Jonesses which counts for your feeling. A lambo is just an (uncomfortable) car, and rich friends aren’t really nicer than poor friends(zero correlation kindness and income level). And when you are earning a lot more than your friends, this inequality feeling is not nice.

Another approach would be to move to a cheaper neighborhood, but human nature to aim higher and higher prevents us