MSTR as a defined-risk trade for asymmetric risk-reward

Bit Digital (BTBT) is rumored to be the upcoming "Microstrategy of Ethereum". Their mined BTC is converted into ETH, which is not sold, but added onto the balance sheets, and immediately staked. Only the dividend yields are taken to purchase more mining equipment. No other miner does it this way (yet), and this is how I had always thought I'd run a miner myself. Finally someone did it.

Aside from this, they are vertically integrated, so the diversity is another benefit.

I've been getting really worried the last few weeks of a DEF CON 1-2 type event with the geopolitical situation getting out of control around the world. Even the UK Labour Party is an Orwellian dystopia now.

I decided to roll my BitFarms (BITF)contracts out to next year instead of taking assignment tomorrow. I want to try to free up more margin as I don't like the black/grey swans lurking about right now.

I'll still take the Bit Digital stock that will be PUT to me tomorrow as I have none and really want some at the moment.
 
@johnarb

Alright, haven't got to "Digital Gold" yet, but I am on page #252 of Popper's "The Trolls of Wall Street". It is sort of weird reading about myself and WSB, almost like my own diary in a way.

That said, the Author immediately came across as a leftist nutjob, and if only I had a dollar for every time he repeats misogyny, or white privilege, or has a Trump temper tantrum, I'd own a lot more Bitcoin calls right now. lol

The few things I missed during those times in #WSB I can't even be sure are correct in this book because I can't even trust the author with his political bias.

I will see about finishing the book in the next few days, but "Digital Gold" will have to wait.
 
johnarb said:
Last week, both positions, mstr leaps call options and the crypto popcat combined were profitable m2m as btc was trading near and above $70k/btc

Today, down $70k m2m and popcat down about $35k, down 6 figure$ m2m combined positions
More...

**** NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE ****
**** POST IS FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY ****​


Both positions, mstr call options + popcat meme crypto assets combined are down close to -$100k m2m

[about 100k popcat cost-basis of 0.70/popcat give or take]

Two points...

1. Both positions are levered-correlation to bitcoin price
2. A price of $100k/btc before eoy would result imho (back-of-the-napkin) m2m profits of >$500k m2m

On the 2nd point, mstr calls are still not planned to close out until 2nd half of next year 2025

The last 4 months of the year are anticipated to be a bullish period for bitcoin, nfa

Two updates I posted on my previous mstr calls options position from early this year (Jan/2024) when it was down over 70% m2m $10k and $12k value

and I said position could reach $1M, which it did, even though I only cashed out in the +$700k range, still very profitable

I guess that is why there is a market, some are bulls some are bears and some are non-position takers and they trade accordingly

Bitcoin is $59k each currently... and yet I fully expect it to hit $100k within 5 months

not financial advice

upload_2024-8-18_15-3-58.png
 
Last edited:
Bitcoin is $59k each currently... and yet I fully expect it to hit $100k within 5 months
More...

Not to burst your crypto bubble, but for years I've been hearing this. Yes.. year after year I keep hearing finfluencers go on and on how THIS YEAR, Bitcoin is going to hit $100K. They REALLY mean it this time.

It's always different this time, isn't it? :)
 
The_Krakenite said:
Not to burst your crypto bubble, but for years I've been hearing this. Yes.. year after year I keep hearing finfluencers go on and on how THIS YEAR, Bitcoin is going to hit $100K. They REALLY mean it this time.

It's always different this time, isn't it? :)
More...

It is different this time....

upload_2024-8-19_3-7-55.png



upload_2024-8-19_3-9-43.png
 
Unfortunately, I can't be as confident, especially with BTC still under 60K and it's already nearing end of august.

This morning I (finally) closed out all my short-puts on MSTR. This is something I should have done many months ago, but kept hanging around trying to get better fills.

I also got out flat on CoinBase as well (for now).

I had been planning to wait until later in the year before exiting, but I need to do more risk-management at the moment and crystalize some of the profits while Mr. Market leaves them out there for me.

At the end of the day though, I do hope for my CME Bitcoin FoPs that you are correct on your 100K assumption for end of December. As long as it's 60K+ though, I won't complain :)

It really is alarming me though, that with all the bullish expectations with lower interest rates, etc... that our forward looking market seems so depressed on BTC. All that money in bonds is going to have to move somewhere.

If the market is smart enough to have priced it already in, then we've got a bigger drop ahead of us if there is a stall again.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top