MSTR as a defined-risk trade for asymmetric risk-reward

[johnarb]

Unfortunately, I can't be as confident, especially with BTC still under 60K and it's already nearing end of august.

This morning I (finally) closed out all my short-puts on MSTR. This is something I should have done many months ago, but kept hanging around trying to get better fills.

I also got out flat on CoinBase as well (for now).

I had been planning to wait until later in the year before exiting, but I need to do more risk-management at the moment and crystalize some of the profits while Mr. Market leaves them out there for me.

At the end of the day though, I do hope for my CME Bitcoin FoPs that you are correct on your 100K assumption for end of December. As long as it's 60K+ though, I won't complain

It really is alarming me though, that with all the bullish expectations with lower interest rates, etc... that our forward looking market seems so depressed on BTC. All that money in bonds is going to have to move somewhere.

If the market is smart enough to have priced it already in, then we've got a bigger drop ahead of us if there is a stall again.

Be strong, have patience

Bitcoin does this all the time... chop chop chop,

When people say hodlers got lucky, they have no fucking idea. Not of the 2014-16, nor of the 2018-2019, nor of the 2022-2023, not even of the April/2024-Aug/2024...

chop chop chop, up crash up crash

HODL

$100k is a measly 70% up move from here, come on now, that's a just a tiny move when bitcoin gets going during the last 4 months of the year

Here's the 2020 halving, there were many doubters too if we were going to break $20k, look at where bitcoin was in August and look at the price in December

Pekelo even started a thread from what I remember bitcoin was $15k chopping sideways to down, it was around the time of the election he mentioned Gold was the better hedge for the election "controversies"

Bitcoin no care about politics or election, it's a global monetary asset, the best money in the history of the world

Be strong, have patience, relax and hodl

$100,000/bitcoin before eoy

https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/price-of-bitcoin-in-2020

 

[johnarb]

Both positions, mstr call options + popcat meme crypto assets combined are down close to -$100k m2m

[about 100k popcat cost-basis of 0.70/popcat give or take]

View attachment 346847

Less than a week ago, popcat meme position was down about -30k usdt m2m (was down as much as 42k usdt m2m during the bitcoin crash to $49k)

Today, popcat position is up +6k usdt m2m

That's how fast bitcoin and crypto markets can turn, now bitcoin about $64k

Still down on the mstr call options position m2m but plenty of time...

NO FINANCIAL ADVICE here

Trading methodology is on the OP post of this thread

 

[The_Krakenite]

I'm over halfway done watching an interview with Eric Semler. Looks like he has lots of experience, even was a hedge fund manager, experienced with Bitcoin and sat on the board of Semler Scientific.

I feel a lot more confident now that Semler Sci. may very well make its run-up like Microstrategy.

 

[Overnight]

If March 2020 repeats, btc will be above $100k within a month or maybe sooner when

Have you lost your mind? March 2020 was a once-in-a-generation event.

The only thing that can happen similar to that is an active nuclear conflict. And that is NOT going to happen.

 

[johnarb]

The previous position had a range of $2.3k (lowest) to $$118k (highest) in about 18 months time (5,000%)

If I'm correct, this current options position could go from $6.5k (lowest) to $1M (highest) in 1/3rd of the time, 6 months (15,000%)

3 times bigger move in 1/3rd the time, sound doable

That would be wild, lol, putting it on here coz no one would believe it if it happens when bitcoin goes to $100k within 6 months and the second order effect on the MSTR share price


View attachment 332879

**** Not financial advice ****

I'm getting the same vibe as last time I was down over 70% m2m on mstr calls position...

Position went from a value of $13k to $1M m2m within 2 months

 

[The_Krakenite]

I'm more glad now I already took profits last month on MSTR & COIN positions. Now... I am still trying to stick to my plan of avoiding any further trades until tax-farming time. But... damn, it's been so hard today to hold back on this vol.

 

[NoahA]

I'm getting the same vibe as last time I was down over 70% m2m on mstr calls position...

I hope you're right!! I'm holding a smallish BITX position, the 2x ETF, and what really sucks is the constant up and down. Most of my ETF allocations to Bitcoin are just the non-leveraged plays, so those will recover just fine, but this leveraged one is getting hammered on the down days and doesn't recover well enough on the up days. I do think it will still slightly outperform the non-leveraged plays at some point if we start to rally, but shit, its getting a bit painful. I can see why these instruments are not meant to be long term holds. The value that is erased on down days is very difficult to recover on up days. I have pretty much lost all profits accumulated during the nice rally after the ETF launch, and if we drop below 50k, that will suck. Once again, this is just a small position, thank god, but I certainly didn't consider the downsides of this ETF in my analysis. Its the up and down motion that is decimating the price.

 

[johnarb]

I hope you're right!! I'm holding a smallish BITX position, the 2x ETF,

I'm very confident that I am right and will make over $1M in profits on this mstr calls options trade

The only way I am wrong is if bitcoin has seen the ath price for this epoch cycle and will not go above $80k before the end of next year 2025

Leveraged bitcoin instruments are the correct way to play this when you know the time parameters

• If I am wrong, I will lose $160k of mstr call options expiring worthless

In line with the thread title, make 300-1000%+ roi or lose all invested capital. Asymmetric risk-reward

**** Not Financial Advice ****