You are confused. The last trick is when penny-stocks do a reverse-split to prevent from being de-listed. This is the opposite.
MSTR as a defined-risk trade for asymmetric risk-reward
- Thread starter johnarb
- Start date
**** NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE ****
**** POST IS FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY ****
I'm going to follow you on this trade/investment and will buy SMLR (shares not options) on Monday
The market cap is very small so this is definitely an asymmetric risk-reward trade,
downside 50% upside 2000-3000% in the next 18 months (coincides with the bitcoin bull market)
https://bitcointreasuries.com/#public
This is a killer link.... thanks for sharing.
So for SMLR... lets see... 929 bitcoins on the balance sheet, at $60k per bitcoin, that is $55M. So you're telling me that a company with a market cap of $200M has 1/4 of their value in Bitcoin??? Very interesting indeed....
The chart looks like absolute crap, and I have no idea what lead to the $150 top and subsequent crash, but the asymmetry of this trade is incredible.
They also announced selling shares to buy more bitcoins... following the mstr playbook
Maybe they'll announce convertible debt offerings as well, to buy more bitcoins
FASB rule takes effect Dec 15 right smack in the middle of the bitcoin bull market
bitcoiners that think bitcoin will be over $100k or $200k, also think the earnings will be phenomenal for mstr and smlr
Both are a leveraged play on the bull market cycle
**** no financial advice ****
I am having a bad feeling in the future I will regret not having gone heavier on this. Though, that will certainly be a nice 'problem' to have. 
The downside is that due to changes in health-insurance, etc. their 'health industries' moat will be dead by 2027 if things don't change. But... there is time to change the businessmodel by then, or other things go into their favour.
If all ends up bad, they 'may' have the ability to simply buy out another medical money-machine using the Bitcoin on the balance sheets by then. Maybe even a 'lot' of companies.
In any case, this will be a fun part of this thread to go back to in 2027.
As mentioned, the asymmetry is what really lures me here. It seems the majority of investors are too hooked on all the 'value investing' books. I honestly haven't even seen one single investing book out there on 'asymmetry' in that genre. And this is from a person who reads 150-200 books each year.
Eventually, this behaviour will change when people start to realize (but often far too late).
Another big plus, is I have always thought health/genetics/medicine was a great spot for the future... kind of the next big-tech. I've wanted to get more involved, not just for 'gains' but also for moral ethics I suppose. And 'no', it's not what you are thinking when I say 'ethics'. I am NOT into ESG or woke shit.
The downside is that due to changes in health-insurance, etc. their 'health industries' moat will be dead by 2027 if things don't change. But... there is time to change the businessmodel by then, or other things go into their favour.
If all ends up bad, they 'may' have the ability to simply buy out another medical money-machine using the Bitcoin on the balance sheets by then. Maybe even a 'lot' of companies.
In any case, this will be a fun part of this thread to go back to in 2027.
As mentioned, the asymmetry is what really lures me here. It seems the majority of investors are too hooked on all the 'value investing' books. I honestly haven't even seen one single investing book out there on 'asymmetry' in that genre. And this is from a person who reads 150-200 books each year.
Eventually, this behaviour will change when people start to realize (but often far too late).
Another big plus, is I have always thought health/genetics/medicine was a great spot for the future... kind of the next big-tech. I've wanted to get more involved, not just for 'gains' but also for moral ethics I suppose. And 'no', it's not what you are thinking when I say 'ethics'. I am NOT into ESG or woke shit.
My only worry is the chart. I know nothing about the company, so its good to read what you wrote about their business, but there its lots of room for this to fall. It seems like there is lots of support around that $20 range, but if this should break, those lows in the $2, 3 or 4 range are very far away. I'm also not sure when they started buying Bitcoin, but it certainly doesn't look to be reflected in the price too much.I am having a bad feeling in the future I will regret not having gone heavier on this. Though, that will certainly be a nice 'problem' to have.
Argh! I'm not going to buy smlr no more... their business is healthcare, too difficult for me to understand
I'll stick to the original play mstr or add something else...
Few things here, take it or leave it.
1: I haven’t yet, and will not, read this entire thread. Apologies if I am being redundant to someone else’s comment
2: I did some light cross analysis of the spread between MSTR / BTC simply as a Bitcoin proxy that offers listed options.
3: I then read online to further understand the correlation but also as to why the stock is at a premium (which in itself isn’t unusual since the 2,000 employee operation may or may not have an actual business mandate besides buying bitcoin, again, not going to look that deeply)
4: I am concerned about the long term viability as to the strategy when the founder liquidated $400mm of equity on the run from BTC 20->60 this year
1: I haven’t yet, and will not, read this entire thread. Apologies if I am being redundant to someone else’s comment
2: I did some light cross analysis of the spread between MSTR / BTC simply as a Bitcoin proxy that offers listed options.
3: I then read online to further understand the correlation but also as to why the stock is at a premium (which in itself isn’t unusual since the 2,000 employee operation may or may not have an actual business mandate besides buying bitcoin, again, not going to look that deeply)
4: I am concerned about the long term viability as to the strategy when the founder liquidated $400mm of equity on the run from BTC 20->60 this year
That's exactly what bears said about MSTR, and lost out on an early retirement.
In any case, you can either hit the books on the healthcare side, or not. You know clear well there generally is higher risk for higher reward.
If you wan't to feel safe, buy some T-Bills today
The US government is in desperate need to waste more of the money it doesn't have yet.**** NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE ****
**** POST IS FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY ****
13-F's info:
Literal nation central banks own MSTR in large quantities
**** POST IS FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY ****
13-F's info:
Literal nation central banks own MSTR in large quantities
- Norges bank (the CENTRAL BANK of NORWAY) owns 1.1M shares of $MSTR
- Swiss National Bank (the CENTRAL BANK of Switzerland) owns 466,000 shares - a 60% increase over last quarter
- THE HRT purchased 411,430 shares of $MSTR last quarter
- Mitsui Suitomo (one of the largest insurance companies in Japan) purchased 291,570 NEW $MSTR shares last quarter
- The NATIONAL PENSION SERVICE OF SOUTH KOREA purchased 245,000 $MSTR shares last quarter
- Fred Alger ($30B asset manager) purchased 253,000 shares new position last quarter
- Wellington Management ($1T in AUM) increased position by 197,000 shares (a 2,000% increase in holding size)
- The State Board of Florida Retirement system purchased 123,580 shares last quarter (a 545% increase)