MSTR as a defined-risk trade for asymmetric risk-reward

[johnarb]

**** NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE ****
**** POST IS FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY ****​

I only have 2 active trades MSTR call options and Popcat meme coin so I'm bringing the Popcat updates on this thread

• MSTR plan to close position in the 2nd half of 2025
• Popcat plan to lighten position if price goes to $2

Last week, both positions, mstr leaps call options and the crypto popcat combined were profitable m2m as btc was trading near and above $70k/btc

Today, down $70k m2m and popcat down about $35k, down 6 figure$ m2m combined positions

But as the title says, these are defined risks, capital at risk is fixed, just buy & hold and let the probability distribution of highs and lows play out

It's the way I trade. I'm very confident that when btc is trading at $100k/btc that both of these positions will be very profitable, before end of year

Not financial advice

 

[vanzandt]

Last week, both positions, mstr leaps call options and the crypto popcat combined were profitable m2m as btc was trading near and above $70k/btc

Today, down $70k m2m and popcat down about $35k, down 6 figure$ m2m combined positions

But as the title says, these are defined risks, capital at risk is fixed, just buy & hold and let the probability distribution of highs and lows play out

It's the way I trade. I'm very confident that when btc is trading at $100k/btc that both of these positions will be very profitable, before end of year

Not financial advice

What's fueling the sell-off in btc? Any idea. Seems like it should be going up. Margin calls on stocks forcing PM's to sell stuff maybe?

 

[johnarb]

What's fueling the sell-off in btc? Any idea. Seems like it should be going up. Margin calls on stocks forcing PM's to sell stuff maybe?

Jump trading getting out, their wallets being tracked on the blockhain have been selling to stablecoins, they had massive positions on ETH and staked ETH

There's a big Japanese institutional leveraged trader that is rumored to have blown up, had positions on crypto

and the usual traders of the stock markets getting margin calls and having to liquidate their bitcoin and crypto holdings

If March 2020 repeats, btc will be above $100k within a month or maybe sooner when the printing/bailout by the CB's are announced...

 

[traider]

risk off

 

[johnarb]

risk off

Bitcoin is the safest asset in the whole world, but 99% of the world doesn't know it yet,

as such, bitcoin is incorrectly being treated as a risk asset by the market

 

[NoahA]

There's a big Japanese institutional leveraged trader that is rumored to have blown up, had positions on crypto

I thought I read that the company that Dylan Leclair joined... metaplanet???.... in Japan was down 80%. But I don't know about any of this.

 

[johnarb]

I thought I read that the company that Dylan Leclair joined... metaplanet???.... in Japan was down 80%. But I don't know about any of this.

It's down a lot from its ath, but today's Meta planet move is in line with the Nikkei

Just like mstr, it's levered correlated to bitcoin price

 

[The_Krakenite]

I took advantage of the Black Monday panic to grab a bit of MicroStrategies' newest baby sister on the block this morning (SMLR)...

I had been debating on getting some during the weekend, and was upset at myself for missing out on the rise when they first started accumulating Bitcoins months ago. A healthy reset made the decision easy now. Also, they bought more BTC for the balance sheet yesterday while the panic ensued.

 

[The_Krakenite]

 

[orbit23]

View attachment 346107

this is like the last trick to pull out of the bag to lure in more suckers