Mr. Bull, We've Had Enough with Your BS. You're Fired!
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
Did we? I never noticed.
Anyway, this is all for fun. Don't attach too much meaning. For the time being, trade well and live well.
In my view...If Trump is re-elected, it starts in 2023. If a dem wins this year, it starts in 2021. But 2026 is going to be painful for businesses (and people) when some bits of the tax cut act expire. Maybe this will all be expanded with new legislation before those deadlines. Nobody can know.
If not, yikes!
https://www.fool.com/taxes/2017/12/03/surprise-these-5-gop-tax-breaks-will-end-by-2026.aspx
Wrong.
The great Mr T effect! MAGA ..sail on bosey....The problem is that you and others said the same thing last fall as well. Just as confident and just as wrong.
The stance seems to be: "This market is way overextended and there's no way it can go any higher from here."
Then, the market just keeps going higher. If we concern ourselves with facts, the one thing this market has shown us is that it can go higher. A lot higher than most people thought. And that may continue...
Let's all agree that this market is irrational and likely manipulated/rigged and that a correction is due.
Where our views diverge then is that I'm thinking:
"The market is currently up 394 % bottom to top (2006-2020) - What's another 5 or 15% from here? Or even more?
If the market was overbought 500 points ago - why would it stop exactly now?"
Like I said. I hope you're right, but I fear you're wrong. I remain bullish and expect a positive close and most likely new highs by week end. Of course - ready to reverse that view on evidence of the contrary.
Good luck.
The problema with tight channel wedge tops in a bull market is any PB that fails to become a reversal but continues on up is very indicative of a measured move up with subsequent wedge tops failing over and and over again as the measured move is unfolding and becomes history. Until there are at least 20 bars sideways to down no potential top has been made. And once there are 20 bars sideways to down (i.e. a strong pause) there will likely be 20 ..30.. more bars sideways before a BO occurs and by then it is 50/50 the breakout can be bullish or bearish. As your chart shows no pause of 20 bars or more before resumption of bull trend so all wedge tops have a high probability of failing. In such a scenario traders see a wedge top and begin shorting expecting a reversal and are left concluding that patterns mean nothing and are useless. Context is way more important that any single price pattern and context directly relates as to whether a pattern will be successful or not. What I mean by successful I mean that the pattern will indicate upcoming price action to behave in such a manner that is expected from the pattern.Okay, I suppose I owe at least an explanation as to why I believe we're due for a correction (I wouldn't wanna be part of that other top-calling crowd who base their reason on hunches). As you can see from the chart, it's a sight to behold. Completely breathtaking!
We have to remember that price movement has inertia. The markets tend to continue doing what they are doing. Any pattern has to indicate enough strength to stop that inertia. In tight bull channels wedge tops tend to fail over and over and it is best to look for measured moves up until inertia is depleted. You will know that it is depleted when you see at least 20 bars sideways to down. At that point any wedge top or wedge bottom that forms in the sideways move (if sideways range is broad enough) will likely succeed and price will unfold as expected from the pattern.
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Or a kaypro computer LOL
Some in Chicago would disagree. If you’re smart (and maybe lucky), then sure.