MOS - Earnings play
- Thread starter MrDODGE
- Start date
How about catching the low print of the day....Only 100 shares, but hey it's the low print on one hell of a knife....
Old man still got quick fingers....Or Lady Luck.....Thought I would start up a position on this thing today...
$COSTAverageMAN
Old man still got quick fingers....Or Lady Luck.....Thought I would start up a position on this thing today...
$COSTAverageMAN
Maybe MOS will issue a special dividend, one of these
Thursday, October 02, 2008
Mosaic (NYSE:MOS): Bounce?
Several tier-1 firms defending Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) following results announced last night:
- Morgan Stanley notes the "missâ relative to expectations came on the COGS line, as Mosaic's revenue came in above our expectations despite lower than anticipated volume. Not surprisingly given the widely reported $100 decline in DAP prices over the past month (i.e., trade magazines have been reporting prices around $1,00 per tonne for several weeks now), Mosaic is choosing to protect price by reducing DAP production during what it believes will be a limited period of demand softness. Morgan Stanley expects this move to shore up recent DAP price weakness and continues to note that on a go forward basis lower sulfur production costs are largely offsetting the current reduction in DAP prices. Importantly, potash results were inline with firm's expectation and the company made no alterations to its potash production expectation. Finally, given the global economic environment, what should not be lost in all of this is that Mosaic now has ~$700 million of net cash - a substantial cushion that makes it more than capable of matching supply with demand to protect price.
Given the present equity market environment, investors will likely be overly disturbed by the "miss" and cast a more skeptical eye on the production cut (i.e., will it be enough to maintain status quo DAP price levels?). That said, with Mosaic shares trading down ~20% in the post-market to $55 per share, they believe that a near-worst case scenario is now priced in for the balance of F2009.
Maintains Overweight and $155 tgt
- Citigroup maintains their Buy and $150 tgt noting that combining the macro environment and guidance cut, MOS shares are likely to trade-off today, but farmer economics indicate underlying farm demand for fertilizers should remain strong over the full application season. In firm's opinion, the market will have a difficult time focusing on the expanding margins until phosphate prices stabilize, which is why they view the production curtailments as a positive, since this should shorten the inventory adjustment period and tighten the market for calendar 2009;
Notablecalls: "I think MOS represents a bounce candidate for today."
http://notablecalls.blogspot.com/search?q=mos
Mosaic (NYSE:MOS): Bounce?
Several tier-1 firms defending Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) following results announced last night:
- Morgan Stanley notes the "missâ relative to expectations came on the COGS line, as Mosaic's revenue came in above our expectations despite lower than anticipated volume. Not surprisingly given the widely reported $100 decline in DAP prices over the past month (i.e., trade magazines have been reporting prices around $1,00 per tonne for several weeks now), Mosaic is choosing to protect price by reducing DAP production during what it believes will be a limited period of demand softness. Morgan Stanley expects this move to shore up recent DAP price weakness and continues to note that on a go forward basis lower sulfur production costs are largely offsetting the current reduction in DAP prices. Importantly, potash results were inline with firm's expectation and the company made no alterations to its potash production expectation. Finally, given the global economic environment, what should not be lost in all of this is that Mosaic now has ~$700 million of net cash - a substantial cushion that makes it more than capable of matching supply with demand to protect price.
Given the present equity market environment, investors will likely be overly disturbed by the "miss" and cast a more skeptical eye on the production cut (i.e., will it be enough to maintain status quo DAP price levels?). That said, with Mosaic shares trading down ~20% in the post-market to $55 per share, they believe that a near-worst case scenario is now priced in for the balance of F2009.
Maintains Overweight and $155 tgt
- Citigroup maintains their Buy and $150 tgt noting that combining the macro environment and guidance cut, MOS shares are likely to trade-off today, but farmer economics indicate underlying farm demand for fertilizers should remain strong over the full application season. In firm's opinion, the market will have a difficult time focusing on the expanding margins until phosphate prices stabilize, which is why they view the production curtailments as a positive, since this should shorten the inventory adjustment period and tighten the market for calendar 2009;
Notablecalls: "I think MOS represents a bounce candidate for today."
http://notablecalls.blogspot.com/search?q=mos
they are still Mosaic Company, The
INTERVIEW-Mosaic's CEO sees solid farm economy in 2009
10.02.08, 9:56 PM ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. fertilizer producer Mosaic (nyse: MOS - news - people ) Co expects a solid farm economy in 2009 and does not see next years crop plantings being hurt by the effects of the credit freeze, its chief executive officer said in an interview.
"To say no, there are going to be no implications (on the farm economy from the credit crunch) that would be careless and whistling past the graveyard. But, we see the farm economy as solid and our reports are that banks are still lending to farmers," said CEO Jim Prokopanko.
Prokopanko spoke to Reuters late Wednesday after the company reported fiscal first-quarter results that missed Wall Street's expectations and warned it would lower phosphate production due to excess phosphate inventories in global markets.
Shares of the fertilizer producer tumbled more than 40 percent Thursday. Mosaic's earnings miss, coupled with analysts' downgrades of other agribusiness companies pummeled shares of farm equipment makers, seed producers, grain processors and other fertilizer companies.
Prokopanko said the results met his expectations and the company remained confident that the fundamentals in the agricultural sector remained strong.
"We've looked at historic data going back 40 plus years. There are only three or four years, where we've seen grain and oilseed consumption reduced year-over-year," said Prokopanko.
"We see that growth could possibly slow, but we just don't see grain and oilseed consumption going backward."
10.02.08, 9:56 PM ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. fertilizer producer Mosaic (nyse: MOS - news - people ) Co expects a solid farm economy in 2009 and does not see next years crop plantings being hurt by the effects of the credit freeze, its chief executive officer said in an interview.
"To say no, there are going to be no implications (on the farm economy from the credit crunch) that would be careless and whistling past the graveyard. But, we see the farm economy as solid and our reports are that banks are still lending to farmers," said CEO Jim Prokopanko.
Prokopanko spoke to Reuters late Wednesday after the company reported fiscal first-quarter results that missed Wall Street's expectations and warned it would lower phosphate production due to excess phosphate inventories in global markets.
Shares of the fertilizer producer tumbled more than 40 percent Thursday. Mosaic's earnings miss, coupled with analysts' downgrades of other agribusiness companies pummeled shares of farm equipment makers, seed producers, grain processors and other fertilizer companies.
Prokopanko said the results met his expectations and the company remained confident that the fundamentals in the agricultural sector remained strong.
"We've looked at historic data going back 40 plus years. There are only three or four years, where we've seen grain and oilseed consumption reduced year-over-year," said Prokopanko.
"We see that growth could possibly slow, but we just don't see grain and oilseed consumption going backward."
up we go
