MOS - Earnings play

Commodity Agriculture (Citi)
F1Q09 Preview
Buy 1H MOS (Mosaic Co)

Price (29 Sep 08) US$63.75
Target price US$150.00

Expected share price return 135.3%
Expected dividend yield 0.3%
"We are lowering our target price to $150/sh from
$183/sh based on valuation multiple compression across the materials sector
and the broader market. However, our positive long-term position on the North
American fertilizer market remains unchanged. Maintain Buy/High Risk rating.
ƒæ Phosphate ¡X We estimate phosphate gross profit of $1,288 mln on realized
pricing of $1,080/tonne (+$326/tonne QoQ), shipments of 2,235k (-118k
tonnes QoQ) and unit costs (excluding ammonia and sulfur) of $100/tonne.
Management guided to an average realized price of $1,020-$1,080/tonne. ...."
 
Associated Press 09.30.08, 11:22 AM ET
On Tuesday, analysts cited Plymouth, Minn.-based company's attractive valuation.

Soleil Securities analyst Mark Gulley estimates that Mosaic generates a robust free cash flow yield of about 16 percent.

Free cash flow, or operating cash flow minus capital expenditures, measures a company's ability to generate cash and reward owners. It also is more difficult to manipulate than net income.

Gulley also said that with shares trading at three times the company's earnings before income, taxes, depreciation and amortization, a buyout of the company could be paid for in three years.

Citi Investment Research analyst Brian Yu reiterated his "Buy" rating on the shares and his "positive long-term position on the North American fertilizer market."

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/09/30/ap5489700.html
 
Quote from stock_trad3r:

MOS & POT great buys at these levels
More...

2:28PM CST: MOS 69.08

HAHAHA, Have fun with your position stock_trad3r, looks like its trading 54.85 now!!!
 
Quote from cszulc:

2:28PM CST: MOS 69.08

HAHAHA, Have fun with your position stock_trad3r, looks like its trading 54.85 now!!!
More...

Overreaction. A miss was priced in at $69 , down from $161 June high

MOS:
Revenues for the quarter were $4.3 billion, versus the consensus of $4.11 billion. Reaffirms forecast for sales volume. Phosphate sales volume for FY09 has been reduced to 8-9 million tonnes. Potash sales guidance is unchanged at 8.2-8.6 million tonnes.
Net income in the quarter ended Aug 31 was $1.18 billion, or $2.65 a share, up 284% from a year-ago's profit of $305.5 million, or 69 cents a share.

Mosaic's gross margin for the first quarter fiscal 2009 was $1.6
billion, or 38.1% of net sales, compared with $521.8 million, or 26.0% of
net sales, a year ago.
 
Quote from aresky:
09-24-08
Analyst Previews Mosaic's (MOS) Q1 Earnings; Reiterates Buy

September 24, 2008 11:15 AM EDT
Canaccord Adams is out with a research note previewing The Mosaic Company's (NYSE: MOS) Q1 earnings, which are expected out after the close on Wednesday, October 1. The firm reiterates its Buy rating and $210 price target on shares of Mosaic.

The firm expects Mosaic to report sales of $4.204 billion and EPS of $2.95 for the quarter. These numbers compare to the Street estimates of $4.12 billion in sales and $2.93 in EPS. Canaccord believes "Mosaic will report strong top- and bottom-line growth driven by margin expansion due to continued strength in phosphate and potash pricing." The firm also expects Mosaic's management to reiterate its FY09 production output guidance and issue a pricing outlook for Q2.


Canaccord notes that Mosaic stock currently trades at 5.9x expected FY09 EPS, which compares to its peer group's average of 6.7x. The firm said its price target on Mosaic is based on 15x the firm's FY09 EPS estimate of $14.52.

Canaccord's $210 price target represents potential price appreciation of 140% from current levels. :eek:

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analys...MOS)+Q1+Earnings;+Reiterates+Buy/4014907.html
More...

Tomorrow Canaccord Adams' opinion will be very funny
Few days ago they reiterated Buy opinion and $210 price target on MOS :D

It looks like Canaccord Adams missed badly.
That analyst should retire, he should shut up forever :D
 
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