More (Subtle) Proof This Bull Will Soon End

[vanzandt]

ASTE is probably a pretty interesting stock. It has exposure to the agriculture and mining industry at a time when a monster bear market may be turning. It also has sizable construction exposure just before a new political cycle which has been framed by a meaningful discussion of infrastructure projects.

Regarding the recessionary calls on this thread, it helps to find confirming evidence. Stalled heavy truck orders are low for a number of reasons (commodity bear market, no infrastructure spending, lesser consumer spending, etc.). What about the architectural billing index or housing starts? A number of other indicators wouldn't confirm the heavy duty truck sales theory either. One or two sector-specific indicators isn't enough to make a broad economic call. It's enough to raise a red flag or two, to prompt one to dig further, but that's about it.

With that said, I do agree that the lesser followed indicators can be quite valuable.

Look forward to more of your posts.

 

[gkishot]

This may not seem like a big deal, but its little things like this that I like to watch and in fact speak volumes.

Google the phrase....

"Salvation Army donations down"

You'll get pages and pages from cities across America where this is in fact the case.

....its the little things.
The bear stirs.
Oooor ... you can blame it on AMZN I guess.

* note.... Ezikiel Elliot jumping in an end-zone kettle after a Cowboy's touchdown yesterday did seem to boost the Dallas numbers. Hahaha... He is good... I'll give the Cowboy's that.

The charge-offs at lendingclub seem to be up.

 

[chartman]

What effect will reducing the corporate tax rate to 15% and lowering the personal tax rate have on the economy? Will it be a boost to the economy by bringing $4 trillion off shore earning to the USA? What will it do to the economy by the Feds starting to creep up the interest rates? Both presidential candidates advocated a massive increase in government spending during the campaign. How will all of these possibilities relate to the stock market? Bull market about to end soon? The Feds could be the monkey wrench that tames the bull.

 

[vanzandt]

I was thinking...
lol....

In keeping with the spirit of the original post on this thread... it would be cool if Bezos put a little kettle icon at the bottom of every checkout page that allowed people to just hand over their spare change on gift cards. Say you have a $25 Amazon gift card and your purchase comes to $23.50... nobody's gonna use that extra $1.50. Sure I know, companies bank on unspent gift cards, but being socially conscious like he is, and considering he's killing the brick and mortar establishment that the Salvation Army depends on so much.... I think it would be the right thing to do.

If you know Bezos or work there... run it up the flagpole.