I agree. It kind of shocked me this morning too.
I'll stick with my Salvation Army Index.
( lol, that was a good one).
More (Subtle) Proof This Bull Will Soon End
- Thread starter vanzandt
- Start date
I'll stick with my Salvation Army Index.
( lol, that was a good one).
Here's a little more subtle proof. Trump can't stop a train.
Recession is coming.
____________________________
Weak demand for heavy-duty trucks weighs on Navistar revenue
Arunima Banerjee
1 Hour AgoReuters
* Q4 revenue slumps 17.1 pct
* Says 2017 revenue would be similar to 2016
* Shares fall as much as 11.59 pct in morning trade
(Adds background, CEO and analyst comments, shares)
Dec 20 (Reuters) - Navistar International Corp posted its seventh straight decline in quarterly revenue, hurt by weak sales of its heavy-duty trucks, and it said industry conditions would challenge its results in early 2017 before improving in the second half.
The truckmaker's shares fell as much as 11.59 percent to $26.25 in morning trading on Tuesday.
Heavy-duty truck orders have been declining as trucking companies adjust their fleets amid lackluster retail sales and industrial output in the United States.
Companies such as Cummins Inc and Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co have also been hit by a fall in U.S. heavy-duty truck production.
Navistar expects 2017 class 8 industry volumes to range between 190,000 and 220,000 trucks while class 6, 7 and buses would total 305,000 to 335,000 vehicles, Chief Executive Troy Clarke said on a conference call.
Orders for Class 8 highway trucks - the 18-wheelers that haul freight across the country - tumbled 46.5 percent in October versus the same period a year earlier, according to preliminary data from industry forecaster FTR. (http://bit.ly/1UqhG1Z)
"It (truck cycle) will begin to recover as the industry meets new and well-performing trucks," Clarke added.
The company said its 2017 revenue would be similar to 2016.
"The outlook bakes in continued industry weakness through the first half of 2017," Jefferies analyst Stephen Volkmann wrote in a client note.
Recession is coming.
____________________________
Weak demand for heavy-duty trucks weighs on Navistar revenue
Arunima Banerjee
1 Hour AgoReuters
* Q4 revenue slumps 17.1 pct
* Says 2017 revenue would be similar to 2016
* Shares fall as much as 11.59 pct in morning trade
(Adds background, CEO and analyst comments, shares)
Dec 20 (Reuters) - Navistar International Corp posted its seventh straight decline in quarterly revenue, hurt by weak sales of its heavy-duty trucks, and it said industry conditions would challenge its results in early 2017 before improving in the second half.
The truckmaker's shares fell as much as 11.59 percent to $26.25 in morning trading on Tuesday.
Heavy-duty truck orders have been declining as trucking companies adjust their fleets amid lackluster retail sales and industrial output in the United States.
Companies such as Cummins Inc and Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co have also been hit by a fall in U.S. heavy-duty truck production.
Navistar expects 2017 class 8 industry volumes to range between 190,000 and 220,000 trucks while class 6, 7 and buses would total 305,000 to 335,000 vehicles, Chief Executive Troy Clarke said on a conference call.
Orders for Class 8 highway trucks - the 18-wheelers that haul freight across the country - tumbled 46.5 percent in October versus the same period a year earlier, according to preliminary data from industry forecaster FTR. (http://bit.ly/1UqhG1Z)
"It (truck cycle) will begin to recover as the industry meets new and well-performing trucks," Clarke added.
The company said its 2017 revenue would be similar to 2016.
"The outlook bakes in continued industry weakness through the first half of 2017," Jefferies analyst Stephen Volkmann wrote in a client note.
How many consecutive crappy quarters for CAT? and yet the market has shrugged it off for years now...liquidity, accommodative central banks, etc.
my sources tell me,
that the nature of the market is, it goes up, and it goes down,
and there's nothing you can do about it...
so,
you are right, in that all bull markets end eventually
When is the only question; and i don't think anyone really knows for sure
the world, and it's economies, put them in a bowl, stir them around, and it can get very complex
marc
that the nature of the market is, it goes up, and it goes down,
and there's nothing you can do about it...
so,
you are right, in that all bull markets end eventually
When is the only question; and i don't think anyone really knows for sure
the world, and it's economies, put them in a bowl, stir them around, and it can get very complex
marc
Its a house of cards.
Too much euphoria out there.
To much geopolitical instability.
1.5B marketcap. Smaller than Fitbit.
ASTE is probably a pretty interesting stock. It has exposure to the agriculture and mining industry at a time when a monster bear market may be turning. It also has sizable construction exposure just before a new political cycle which has been framed by a meaningful discussion of infrastructure projects.
Regarding the recessionary calls on this thread, it helps to find confirming evidence. Stalled heavy truck orders are low for a number of reasons (commodity bear market, no infrastructure spending, lesser consumer spending, etc.). What about the architectural billing index or housing starts? A number of other indicators wouldn't confirm the heavy duty truck sales theory either. One or two sector-specific indicators isn't enough to make a broad economic call. It's enough to raise a red flag or two, to prompt one to dig further, but that's about it.
With that said, I do agree that the lesser followed indicators can be quite valuable.
Obama signed a $305B highway bill in December:
http://thehill.com/policy/finance/262171-obama-signs-305b-highway-bill
We'll see what Trump does in regards to private financing of massive infrastructure overhauls.
Bring on the contrarian indicators.
http://thehill.com/policy/finance/262171-obama-signs-305b-highway-bill
We'll see what Trump does in regards to private financing of massive infrastructure overhauls.
Bring on the contrarian indicators.