Mis-colored Daily Candlesticks

[expiated]

Basically, I plan to record when daily candlesticks are the opposite color of what I would expect, and also where they close within the day range as I calculate it.

Friday / October 18, 2019 / 11:30 a.m.

Two months later, I am planning to reintroduce the concept of mis-colored daily candlesticks into my trading, except that I will be using the information in real time as opposed to waiting to see where the candle closes at the end of the day.

In other words, if I would expect today's candle to be green at the close and it is red at any point during the day, I will monitor the asset's progress at a lower time frame, and enter a long position if and when the intraday trend reverses direction.

I should probably set an ambitious take-profit target when trading in this manner as well, given that the trade is likely to be profitable at the end of the day, whether the take-profit target is actually hit or not.

 

[tiddlywinks]

Here is an IDEA for you.

It is sometimes called Pro-Rata Volume.

Using the previous days volume as a measure, track the volume of the current forming bar at specific intervals. For instance, let's say yesterdays eod volume was 1,000,000. Using for instance, 30 min increments (12-13 intervals for the US RTH session), check the volume of the current bar. To MATCH yesterdays volume, each interval would be approximately 8%. Knowing (and trading intraday) based on the likelihood volume will be higher or lower than yesterday, can offer up trading opportunities perhaps not recognized through other tools. Spotting decreased and increased periods is also valueable. The basis volume and the interval period for pro-rata measurement can be adjusted to suit your trading methods.

Just an IDEA for you.

 

[expiated]

Using the previous days volume as a measure, track the volume of the current forming bar at specific intervals. For instance, let's say yesterdays eod volume was 1,000,000. Using for instance, 30 min increments (12-13 intervals for the US RTH session), check the volume of the current bar. To MATCH yesterdays volume, each interval would be approximately 8%. Knowing (and trading intraday) based on the likelihood volume will be higher or lower than yesterday, can offer up trading opportunities perhaps not recognized through other tools. Spotting decreased and increased periods is also valueable. The basis volume and the interval period for pro-rata measurement can be adjusted to suit your trading methods.

Thanks for the idea, but just glancing over it...seems WAY too complicated for me. I'm just a simple guy, through and through. (I couldn't even bring myself to read it word-for-word, but again, thanks anyway.)

 

[expiated]

I just read Tiddlywinks' post in its entity, and though I appreciate the exchange of ideas, such strategies are just not for me. First, I find volume of greater value when trading stocks than when trading Forex, where my primary observation has been that spikes in volume are often followed by reversals in trend because the surge resulting from the excess activity simply cannot be maintained.

But the main reason I don't bother with volume when trading currency pairs is that I find it unnecessary. If price is continuing to rise, I remain long. So long as it keeps falling, I remain short. Given that I am of the opinion that the measurements I use convey this information to me efficiently, effectively and accurately, I lack the motivation to try using (testing) anything else.

I went through that process from approximately 2011 to 2015 and it has essentially been over since then.

 

[expiated]

My first test case might well be to short CADJPY, but the time to do so has not yet arrived. USDJPY is another candidate that has already turned south, but I plan to short this pair at strategic levels and not simply sell and hold.

That was probably a lie. I'm probably going to try simply selling and holding USDJPY. My target sell price was 108.54, but the closest I could have gotten was about 108.47. Unfortunately, I was at the gym at the time, so I had to enter a short position when I got home. My ultimate take-profit target is 106.30.

 

[expiated]

GBPNZD was a sell at 2.0270. Unlike USDJPY however, its "universal orbit" is bullish, so my take-profit target is relatively close at 2.0158.

 

[expiated]

If EURUSD and USDCHF are not going to reverse direction, then they are the "wrong" color, so I will watch the first for the right opportunity to buy and the latter for the right opportunity to sell.

 

[expiated]

Based on this idea I expect to see GBPUSD fall from 1.2854 and GBPJPY possibly come down from 140.03. I would hope to see NZDJPY and NZDUSD come down tomorrow (Wednesday) and the same for AUDUSD and AUDJPY maybe... (because though the structure of these latter two is primed for a fall, their day-to-day trend lines are now bullish).

 

[expiated]

Based on this idea I expect to see GBPUSD fall from 1.2854 and GBPJPY possibly come down from 140.03. I would hope to see NZDJPY and NZDUSD come down tomorrow (Wednesday) and the same for AUDUSD and AUDJPY maybe... (because though the structure of these latter two is primed for a fall, their day-to-day trend lines are now bullish).

Tuesday / October 29, 2019 / 2:15 a.m.

The Kiwi pairs have started to drop one day earlier than I was anticipating...

 

[expiated]

CONCLUSION: This approach to trading does not make sense for me. The system I normally use is more detailed than this, so any opportunity due to mis-colored daily candlesticks is going to show up on my charts anyway, making the rather crude and less fruitful practice of checking the daily charts for such setups an unnecessary waste of time.

Tuesday / October 29, 2019 / 2:30 a.m.

The above conclusion from August 11, 2019 should perhaps be modified in that mis-colored candlesticks on a daily chart perhaps can make sense for me if I use them simply as an alert notifying me as to when opportunities on lower time frame charts might be taking shape.