Mis-colored Daily Candlesticks

[expiated]

Monday / November 25, 2019 / 9:30 a.m. PST

CADJPY has formed a green daily candlestick when it "should" be red, so be watching for the right time and place to short this pair. The same is true of EURJPY and GBPUSD.

USDCHF has formed a red daily candlestick when it "should" be green, but note that the rate is also currently located in a region of significant resistance, so be very wary about entering a long position. In fact, you probably shouldn't even entertain the idea unless price were to pull back in the near future to the neighborhood of 0.9933, and then carry out a touch-and-go maneuver.

However, if the directional bias line (DBL) were at that point sloping downward, it would of course nullify all of the above and you would instead be looking for the right opportunity to short the pair.

 

[expiated]

Thursday Night / January 23, 2020 / 5:00 p.m. PST

So far, these candles are green when they should ultimately desire to be red:
AUDJPY
CADJPY
EURGBP

Ultimately, these candles should have plenty of room to climb:
GBPJPY
GBPUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF

 

[expiated]

The above conclusion from August 11, 2019 should perhaps be modified in that mis-colored candlesticks on a daily chart perhaps can make sense for me if I use them simply as an alert notifying me as to when opportunities on lower time frame charts might be taking shape.

Sunday / June 21, 2020

This approach ought to be extremely profitable, but more practical, I believe, if I go about it by using the day-to-day baselines instead of daily candlesticks...note when price crosses to the "wrong" side of the trend...and then rely on the lower panel version off NPP to select the optimum moment to enter positions, and later, pocket gains. I look forward to trying it out this week.

 

[expiated]

Tuesday / August 4, 2020 / 7:00 PM PST
In looking for a lazy approach to trading with almost guaranteed profits, I'm looking to apply the mis-colored candlesticks concept to four-hour bars/bricks instead of daily ones. When I got home from grocery shopping just now, only one pair was structured such that I could give it a try...

I entered this trade blindly, so I'm going to adjust the take-profit target to guaranty a payout given that it is already in profit territory. But, going forward, I will always switch to a lower timeframe chart before executing the trade to enter positions at optimum levels and avoid being stopped out by head fakes.

Also, the strategy mentioned in the above Post (#43) from June 21, 2020 looks awesome! But it appears I did not take it very seriously. So, I'm going to revisit it to see if I can figure out why. If it can be incorporated into my four-hour, one-hour, five-minute perspective, it ought to offer setups with extremely favorable reward-to-risk ratios.

 

[expiated]

Wednesday / August 5, 2020 / 3:00 AM PST

If it can be incorporated into my four-hour, one-hour, five-minute perspective, it ought to offer setups with extremely favorable reward-to-risk ratios.

I've added the one- and four-hour measures to my five-minute configuration, which immediately told me when it was okay to sell (scalp) EURAUD...

...and when I should turn right back around and buy it...

The resulting charts are suggesting that I do something I've never done before, which is to categorize the different kinds of pullbacks. So, this is something I will be working on when I wake up later this morning.

 

[expiated]

In looking for a lazy approach to trading with almost guaranteed profits, I'm looking to apply the mis-colored candlesticks concept to four-hour bars/bricks instead of daily ones. When I got home from grocery shopping just now, NZDJPY was the only pair structured such that I could give it a try. I entered the trade blindly, so I adjusted the take-profit target to guaranty a payout given that it was almost immediately in profit territory. But, going forward, I will always switch to a lower timeframe chart before executing the trade to enter positions at optimum levels and avoid being stopped out by head fakes.

USDCAD was my second four-hour mis-colored candlestick trade...

I set my take-profit target at about 12 pips before leaving the house and it didn't get hit until about six hours later...

 

[expiated]

The resulting charts are suggesting that I do something I've never done before, which is to categorize the different kinds of pullbacks. So, this is something I will be working on when I wake up later this morning.

Something to think about…

I noticed that rates will typically separate themselves only so far from the measure I use to track the one-hour price flow. However, they also typically separate themselves only so far from the one-hour baseline (trendline), a range that falls within the one just mentioned.

Since both are based on one-hour, how am I to label them differently?

Also, if the one-hour trendline is multiplied by four, it gives me what I have been using as the four-hour baseline. However, this measure approximates the one I just mentioned—that I use to track the one-hour price flow.

Since the first and last ranges have to do with time, I think I’ll assign a time to the other as well, based on its relationship to the original two. This will take care of the labeling problem. So, these trendlines will now represent…

60 minutes
150 minutes (formerly the one-hour price flow)
and 240 minutes

This should help in categorizing the pullbacks that differ in nature.

 

[expiated]

Thursday / August 6, 2020 / Noon PST

Something to think about…

I'm not looking for anything new anymore—just juxtaposing what I've already got as I move toward more of a "let's be insanely selective in the positions we enter" style of trading in which I'm seeking a few big payouts instead of innumerable small ones along with an almost total elimination of losing trades.

So, what happened here was I bought this pair at the arrow, hoping to pocket a teeny-tiny bit of profit at the marked level, because: (1) the black "sidewinder" envelope was hooking north along with the dark green moving average cluster; (2) the candlesticks were readying themselves for crossing above the crimson moving average cluster; and (3) the slope of the price range envelopes was relatively strong.

But I'll be if that wasn't a head fake! So, I broke the cardinal rule and lowered my stop loss by a mile, because...hey...I've kind of convinced myself that I sort of understand price action a bit and believed there was almost no way the candlesticks would continue printing in a southbound direction for very long.

Thankfully, the pair did reverse direction and I escaped with my teeny-tiny profit in hand. But, the point is that if I had executed the trade where the black sidewinder envelope and dark green moving average cluster hooked to the north the second time, I could have realized a much more significant gain and never been in danger of getting stopped out.

So, here is the resulting probationary (trial period) new rule...

Since the odds of a pair manifesting a head fake is statistically smaller on the "far side" of the price range:

RULE #1
DO NOT ENTER A LONG POSITION ON THE TOP SIDE OF AN UPWARD SLOPING PRICE RANGE ENVELOPE, BUT RATHER, ONLY ON THE DOWN SIDE; AND CONVERSELY, DO NOT ENTER A SHORT POSITION ON THE DOWNSIDE OF A DOWNWARD SLOPING PRICE RANGE ENVELOPE, BUT RATHER, ONLY ON THE UP SIDE.

 

[expiated]

The resulting charts are suggesting that I do something I've never done before, which is to categorize the different kinds of pullbacks. So, this is something I will be working on when I wake up later this morning.

CATEGORY #1: Hourly Candlestick Price Range (Pullback)

 

[expiated]

Thursday / August 6, 2020 / 7:00 PM PST

The resulting charts are suggesting that I do something I've never done before, which is to categorize the different kinds of pullbacks.

Comparing my "final" chart configurations to a very small set of previous ones I felt had too much going for them for me to delete them, it seemed to me that there was a price range based on the one-hour baseline or trend line that was more responsive to price action than is the price range based on the one-hour candlesticks.

The advantage of the latter is that it is more stable and orderly. But the former is, in all honesty, probably more accurate. The trade pictured below is being made in accordance with Rule #1 from Post #48 as well as this next category of pullbacks, which I am (at least for the time being) labeling...

CATEGORY #2: Hourly-Baseline Price-Range Pullback