I had considering exploring the ISEE data a couple of years back, after it got a write-up in Barrons. But, I'm not a big fan of sentiment based indicators, as the information is derivative by nature. So, I dropped the idea pretty quickly. There are more direct ways of assessing markets than through the eyes of others.
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Mike's CrystalBall
- Thread starter michaelscott
- Start date
March 14th update
- I was surprised by the vast number of puts purchased today and the height of the VIX. I was guessing a higher put/call ratio, but not one that topped the last high put/call. At one point I saw it jump to 1.92 intraday meaning almost 2 puts to every one call.
- The Bullish Percent Indexes are starting to turn with the $BPNYA and the $BPCOMP being halfway towards the bottom. Financials appear to be almost all the way to the bottom so Im assuming that they will be the first to hit a bottom. This is a good sign because every notable market bottom has seen these two indexes bottom first. I say we have about 1-2 weeks until both these indexes hit the bottom.
- The foreign markets tonight appear stable, but the run forward is not notable.
- My total index is now at 13392. Yesterday it was at 13341.
- Triple witching expiration coming up. I'm a believe in the max-pain theory where the price of the stock trends in the direction where options become worthless. The max pain levels I had stated in the previous post suggest that we will be higher on Friday then today. I am estimating that Friday total market will be 1.5-2% higher then where we finished today. About a 200 point jump in my total market index.
- You can interpret the "correction" in two ways. Past corrections in 2004 and 2005 resembled a classic V. The 2006 model appeared to be a rounded bottom forming a large cup. For every cup, you have a handle. We are in the handle is what I believe. After the handle comes the breakout. The options expiration day should facilitate such a breakout if the max-pain theory is truly correct.
- Gold is being sold off either to meet margin calls or to raise capital to buy stocks at lower basis. I would be looking for the 585 level.
Conclusion:
I believe we hit the bottom of the handle or "correction". The Friday expirations will possibly facilitate a breakout as prices of stocks gravitate away from the puts that had been purchased. Gold will continue to selloff and probably reach below 600. This is a bullish sign however as it means someone is selling their gold position to raise capital to place into the market.
The bullish percent indexes have not bottomed, but are getting there quickly.
I say possible breakout on Friday. If no breakout, then chop around for a few weeks and then breakout. Correction is complete.
Weather note is that its now 70+ degrees in the NYC area. This will have a psychological effect on traders on Wall Street. I see this as a positive sign because we just came through a brutal February that saw temperatures in the single digits at times.
Buy Goldman Sachs. Price target is 240 from my perspective. Take advantage now in weakness of this stock.
- I was surprised by the vast number of puts purchased today and the height of the VIX. I was guessing a higher put/call ratio, but not one that topped the last high put/call. At one point I saw it jump to 1.92 intraday meaning almost 2 puts to every one call.
- The Bullish Percent Indexes are starting to turn with the $BPNYA and the $BPCOMP being halfway towards the bottom. Financials appear to be almost all the way to the bottom so Im assuming that they will be the first to hit a bottom. This is a good sign because every notable market bottom has seen these two indexes bottom first. I say we have about 1-2 weeks until both these indexes hit the bottom.
- The foreign markets tonight appear stable, but the run forward is not notable.
- My total index is now at 13392. Yesterday it was at 13341.
- Triple witching expiration coming up. I'm a believe in the max-pain theory where the price of the stock trends in the direction where options become worthless. The max pain levels I had stated in the previous post suggest that we will be higher on Friday then today. I am estimating that Friday total market will be 1.5-2% higher then where we finished today. About a 200 point jump in my total market index.
- You can interpret the "correction" in two ways. Past corrections in 2004 and 2005 resembled a classic V. The 2006 model appeared to be a rounded bottom forming a large cup. For every cup, you have a handle. We are in the handle is what I believe. After the handle comes the breakout. The options expiration day should facilitate such a breakout if the max-pain theory is truly correct.
- Gold is being sold off either to meet margin calls or to raise capital to buy stocks at lower basis. I would be looking for the 585 level.
Conclusion:
I believe we hit the bottom of the handle or "correction". The Friday expirations will possibly facilitate a breakout as prices of stocks gravitate away from the puts that had been purchased. Gold will continue to selloff and probably reach below 600. This is a bullish sign however as it means someone is selling their gold position to raise capital to place into the market.
The bullish percent indexes have not bottomed, but are getting there quickly.
I say possible breakout on Friday. If no breakout, then chop around for a few weeks and then breakout. Correction is complete.
Weather note is that its now 70+ degrees in the NYC area. This will have a psychological effect on traders on Wall Street. I see this as a positive sign because we just came through a brutal February that saw temperatures in the single digits at times.
Buy Goldman Sachs. Price target is 240 from my perspective. Take advantage now in weakness of this stock.
It appears we had a low volume climb today probably due to expiration tommorrow. The put/call ratio is at the bottom of its range right now. The foreign markets are trading slightly lower and the domestic futures in the red.
The CPI is going to be key to Friday.
The market wants to rally from here. The key difference between May 2006 and now is that the market hit a double bottom. Now its set for a breakout.
In looking at the NYSE and Nasdaq composite using Bollinger Bands. This is what they call the "Double Bottom buy signal".
The economic data will be key. If the economic data does not come out just right then we will see more chop. The put/call ratio being at the bottom of its range is just asking for a reaction rally. The key is to see how high the put/call ratio will go. Its important that it does not make a new high.
Conclusion-
If the economic data is right, then we will see a breakout and we will move to fresh new highs in a month.
If the economic data is sour, we might see more chop, but I do not expect a lower bottom then we have now.
The CPI is going to be key to Friday.
The market wants to rally from here. The key difference between May 2006 and now is that the market hit a double bottom. Now its set for a breakout.
In looking at the NYSE and Nasdaq composite using Bollinger Bands. This is what they call the "Double Bottom buy signal".
The economic data will be key. If the economic data does not come out just right then we will see more chop. The put/call ratio being at the bottom of its range is just asking for a reaction rally. The key is to see how high the put/call ratio will go. Its important that it does not make a new high.
Conclusion-
If the economic data is right, then we will see a breakout and we will move to fresh new highs in a month.
If the economic data is sour, we might see more chop, but I do not expect a lower bottom then we have now.
I just did Fib. retracements on the Wilshire and a cup-handle analysis. I cannot be anymore bullish on this market. I believe the total market has 16% up room from here to go.
The retracement of the total market was somewhere in between 1/3-1/2 of the cups total height. The max possible retracement is 2/3.
I feel the bottom has been put in due to the double bottom buy signal in the Bollinger Bands.
The key here is the economic data and the Fed. This data is to the indexes as earnings calls are to stocks. They might over-ride the chart.
14828-12249= 2579
2579+13816=16395= Target price of the Wilshire 5000
The retracement of the total market was somewhere in between 1/3-1/2 of the cups total height. The max possible retracement is 2/3.
I feel the bottom has been put in due to the double bottom buy signal in the Bollinger Bands.
The key here is the economic data and the Fed. This data is to the indexes as earnings calls are to stocks. They might over-ride the chart.
14828-12249= 2579
2579+13816=16395= Target price of the Wilshire 5000
CPI data wasnt so bad. CPI#s seem too strong for there to be a recession. The futures inched up on the data.
The futures still in the red, but well off their lows.
The futures still in the red, but well off their lows.
Over the weekend, I have some time so I did some chart experimentation with the NYSE composite. This exercise will demonstrate that we are in the middle of a normal, regularly scheduled "correction".
Look at the attached chart. You will see the primary trend line. Above that you will see the price which goes up and down like a roller coaster. The sell sign for this market has been whenever the price rises anywhere from 7-12% above the primary trend line.
The key to this market is bouncing off of that primary trend line. If the market fails to bounce off of that line then this will become a market crash similiar to the one that occured in 2000. If the primary trend line is violated, then this will turn into the B.A.R.F. or Bump and Run Formation with a target price around 7700.
There is a reason for everything and, if you have noticed, right around past market bottoms there is an up-tick in volatility and put/call ratios, for example the I.S.E.E. #. The reason behind this is market players are scared that the total market will violate the bottom trend line. When this bottom trend line is violated, then this support will become resistance.
The target price for such a calamity would be the following:
Target price= (Point where the trend line is violated) minus (High of the chart minus the point where the bottom trend line is violated).
In the past, I have noticed the magic #3 on charts. This is my owner personal observation and not in anyway scientific. A change in the trend will happen when the price hits the trend line 3 times. So we have had three notable bottoms on the primary trend line.
Another thing to notice on the NYSE chart is the 20 and 50 day moving averages. That is another signal when to go long in the market. It appears that the red line has crossed over the blue line which is called the "death crossover". The blue line will have to get back over the red line to safely consider long positions. In the past 3 years, it has taken 2-3 months for the blue line to get back over the red line. Seeing that the red line just crossed over, a notable market volume may not be in until May-April area judging by history.
This selloff is different from the past with the following notable properties:
- sharp-intense sell-off over a short period of time, other sell-offs took much longer
- high put/call ratios, record low ISEE #s indicating a large amount of put activity. Actually, there is no time in history where so many puts have been traded. These are record numbers. As stated before, we have only seen this amount of put activity when the market appears to be violating a primary trend line. In October 2002, the market was completing a much larger pattern and there was a chance that it would "fall off a cliff" if a certain trend line was violated and thus we saw puts flying off the shelf.
- In 2006, there was only one correction. In any given year, there are always two notable corrections. This intense sell-off might be exacerbated by this fact. In 2005, there were two smaller corrections which is healthy. In 2006, there was not the classic October swoon.
- The correction in 2006 resembles more of a cup-rounded bottom. Where as the 2005 corrections resemble more of a V-bottom. Smaller corrections usually resemble a V-bottom. This large cup-like pattern is not usual.
Conclusions-
- Market players are assuming that the total market will violate the bottom trend line and B.A.R.F. on this next test of the primary trend line. They are preparing by buying puts hoping they will not miss this opportunity. They are assuming that this correction will turn into a market crash similiar to the Nasdaq in 2000.
- If you believe that the market is in a normal correction phase, then the most likely scenario is for a re-test of the bottom trend line which means 4% more down room in about 2 months of time.
- The big differences I see in this correction is the test of the double bottom and the 2006 cup-formation. In the past, when the secondary trend line was violated, there would be an instant correction followed by your typical reaction rally. After the reaction rally, then there would be a retest of the lows. The retest would result in the next downleg. However, we have retested the lows and there was no dramatic sell-off. A third retest would result in a triple bottom. Then we would see a breakout to the 9400-9500 price level assuming it could break above the trend line.
- If the NYSE BARFS then the target price would be 8400-(9463-8400=1063)=About 7400. Using the Fibonacci retracement tool, you would see that the this level makes sense with the top of 9463 and the bottom of 6211 set in 2004. This is the bear market thesis.
- The reasoning behind the intense sell-off has nothing to do with the economy or political issues. It has nothing to do with recession. The simple thesis is that the price is in a dangerous area once it gets between 7-12% over the trend line. The market simply got ahead of itself and is correcting back to the usual trend line.
- Options- People who buy options and wait until expiration usually have nothing to show 90% of the time. So there is a 9 out of 10 chance that these people buying puts will be wrong.
- Bottomline- These are the possibilities as I see it-
a) Cup-handle thesis- 2006 was one big cup and we are now seeing the handle. Target price for NYSE composite= 10567. Total market breaks out of the trend that had started in 2004 and moves into a new upward pattern.
b) Normal correction thesis- Bottom will occur at 8400-8500 price area. 4% more down room from here. Bottoms will be put in within 2-3 months. I dont see this as likely using my own personal magic #3 rule which states a pattern usually repeats itself 3 times and not more.
c) B.A.R.F.- The NYSE will barf and the target price for such an event would be 7400 which is a level not seen since 2005. I see this as unlikely since so many people are buying put options.
Let me discuss the put/call ratio a little further:
During the 2000 market crash, no one was buying puts. In fact, everyone was buying calls. There were only a few times when the number of puts outnumbered the amount of calls in the market. During September 11th, the puts shot up to 1.27 which was a record for the period from 1999-2002. Ultimately these call buyers were wrong.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC&p=D&st=1999-01-01&en=2002-01-01&id=p70213423013
(I hope the entire link goes through, you might have to cut-paste the link. Its a chart from stockcharts.com for the time-period 1999-2002.)
Lets fast foward to the present time frame. Remember that a major terrorist attack on the United States was only able to get that put/call ratio up to 1.27. As you can see from the link, since 2004, the put/call ratio has gone above 1.27 several times. In 2004, it spiked to a high of 1.38. In 2005, 1.42. In 2006, 1.52. In 2007, 1.7 (intraday high was 1.92). Each time in the past 3 years, the options buyers were wrong just as they were in 2000. The put buyers are betting that the NYSE will B.A.R.F. like the Nasdaq did in 2000.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC&p=D&b=1&g=0&id=p36850206803
Look at the attached chart. You will see the primary trend line. Above that you will see the price which goes up and down like a roller coaster. The sell sign for this market has been whenever the price rises anywhere from 7-12% above the primary trend line.
The key to this market is bouncing off of that primary trend line. If the market fails to bounce off of that line then this will become a market crash similiar to the one that occured in 2000. If the primary trend line is violated, then this will turn into the B.A.R.F. or Bump and Run Formation with a target price around 7700.
There is a reason for everything and, if you have noticed, right around past market bottoms there is an up-tick in volatility and put/call ratios, for example the I.S.E.E. #. The reason behind this is market players are scared that the total market will violate the bottom trend line. When this bottom trend line is violated, then this support will become resistance.
The target price for such a calamity would be the following:
Target price= (Point where the trend line is violated) minus (High of the chart minus the point where the bottom trend line is violated).
In the past, I have noticed the magic #3 on charts. This is my owner personal observation and not in anyway scientific. A change in the trend will happen when the price hits the trend line 3 times. So we have had three notable bottoms on the primary trend line.
Another thing to notice on the NYSE chart is the 20 and 50 day moving averages. That is another signal when to go long in the market. It appears that the red line has crossed over the blue line which is called the "death crossover". The blue line will have to get back over the red line to safely consider long positions. In the past 3 years, it has taken 2-3 months for the blue line to get back over the red line. Seeing that the red line just crossed over, a notable market volume may not be in until May-April area judging by history.
This selloff is different from the past with the following notable properties:
- sharp-intense sell-off over a short period of time, other sell-offs took much longer
- high put/call ratios, record low ISEE #s indicating a large amount of put activity. Actually, there is no time in history where so many puts have been traded. These are record numbers. As stated before, we have only seen this amount of put activity when the market appears to be violating a primary trend line. In October 2002, the market was completing a much larger pattern and there was a chance that it would "fall off a cliff" if a certain trend line was violated and thus we saw puts flying off the shelf.
- In 2006, there was only one correction. In any given year, there are always two notable corrections. This intense sell-off might be exacerbated by this fact. In 2005, there were two smaller corrections which is healthy. In 2006, there was not the classic October swoon.
- The correction in 2006 resembles more of a cup-rounded bottom. Where as the 2005 corrections resemble more of a V-bottom. Smaller corrections usually resemble a V-bottom. This large cup-like pattern is not usual.
Conclusions-
- Market players are assuming that the total market will violate the bottom trend line and B.A.R.F. on this next test of the primary trend line. They are preparing by buying puts hoping they will not miss this opportunity. They are assuming that this correction will turn into a market crash similiar to the Nasdaq in 2000.
- If you believe that the market is in a normal correction phase, then the most likely scenario is for a re-test of the bottom trend line which means 4% more down room in about 2 months of time.
- The big differences I see in this correction is the test of the double bottom and the 2006 cup-formation. In the past, when the secondary trend line was violated, there would be an instant correction followed by your typical reaction rally. After the reaction rally, then there would be a retest of the lows. The retest would result in the next downleg. However, we have retested the lows and there was no dramatic sell-off. A third retest would result in a triple bottom. Then we would see a breakout to the 9400-9500 price level assuming it could break above the trend line.
- If the NYSE BARFS then the target price would be 8400-(9463-8400=1063)=About 7400. Using the Fibonacci retracement tool, you would see that the this level makes sense with the top of 9463 and the bottom of 6211 set in 2004. This is the bear market thesis.
- The reasoning behind the intense sell-off has nothing to do with the economy or political issues. It has nothing to do with recession. The simple thesis is that the price is in a dangerous area once it gets between 7-12% over the trend line. The market simply got ahead of itself and is correcting back to the usual trend line.
- Options- People who buy options and wait until expiration usually have nothing to show 90% of the time. So there is a 9 out of 10 chance that these people buying puts will be wrong.
- Bottomline- These are the possibilities as I see it-
a) Cup-handle thesis- 2006 was one big cup and we are now seeing the handle. Target price for NYSE composite= 10567. Total market breaks out of the trend that had started in 2004 and moves into a new upward pattern.
b) Normal correction thesis- Bottom will occur at 8400-8500 price area. 4% more down room from here. Bottoms will be put in within 2-3 months. I dont see this as likely using my own personal magic #3 rule which states a pattern usually repeats itself 3 times and not more.
c) B.A.R.F.- The NYSE will barf and the target price for such an event would be 7400 which is a level not seen since 2005. I see this as unlikely since so many people are buying put options.
Let me discuss the put/call ratio a little further:
During the 2000 market crash, no one was buying puts. In fact, everyone was buying calls. There were only a few times when the number of puts outnumbered the amount of calls in the market. During September 11th, the puts shot up to 1.27 which was a record for the period from 1999-2002. Ultimately these call buyers were wrong.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC&p=D&st=1999-01-01&en=2002-01-01&id=p70213423013
(I hope the entire link goes through, you might have to cut-paste the link. Its a chart from stockcharts.com for the time-period 1999-2002.)
Lets fast foward to the present time frame. Remember that a major terrorist attack on the United States was only able to get that put/call ratio up to 1.27. As you can see from the link, since 2004, the put/call ratio has gone above 1.27 several times. In 2004, it spiked to a high of 1.38. In 2005, 1.42. In 2006, 1.52. In 2007, 1.7 (intraday high was 1.92). Each time in the past 3 years, the options buyers were wrong just as they were in 2000. The put buyers are betting that the NYSE will B.A.R.F. like the Nasdaq did in 2000.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC&p=D&b=1&g=0&id=p36850206803
The Nasdaq 2000 B.A.R.F-
This chart illustrates the Nasdaq's B.A.R.F. in 2000. The height of the chart is 5132.
Target price= 3500 minus (5132 minus 3500)= 1868
The bottom was much lower, but the target price did come within the general area and it gave you a good expectation as to what would happen next. There were issues that exacerbated the decline which was the recession and terrorist attack.
The B.A.R.F. theory held up well in my opinion as if you had exited out of the market when the trend line was violated in late October, you would have still probably had losses, but the losses would not have been on the magnitude of what was to come in 2001.
This chart illustrates the Nasdaq's B.A.R.F. in 2000. The height of the chart is 5132.
Target price= 3500 minus (5132 minus 3500)= 1868
The bottom was much lower, but the target price did come within the general area and it gave you a good expectation as to what would happen next. There were issues that exacerbated the decline which was the recession and terrorist attack.
The B.A.R.F. theory held up well in my opinion as if you had exited out of the market when the trend line was violated in late October, you would have still probably had losses, but the losses would not have been on the magnitude of what was to come in 2001.
Attachments
In looking at the different composite indexes, my observations are the following:
AMEX
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XAX&p=D&b=1&g=0&id=p76317402892
(you will have to cut and paste the link to view as elitetrader messes up the link)
The Amex had two healthy corrections in 2006 versus the Nasdaq and the NYSE which only had one. There were also two-mini corrections in 2006 which extended down to the 50 day moving average.
In 2005, the two Amex corrections never reached to the 200 day moving average, but did extend down past the 50 day moving average.
Recently, the index has corrected from 2179 to 2098. There is a chance that this is the bottom for this index. The other scenario is that the index will correct down to its 200 day moving average at 1997. The doomsday scenario is for it to to break the 200 day moving average.
Two likely scenarios
1) Bottom has formed now
OR
2) Correction will be about 4-5% down from current levels.
The Amex is probably the healthiest index out of the 3. It closed right below its 50 day moving average on Friday.
Nasdaq
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&b=1&g=0&id=p79009284752
Every correction since 2004 has involved a correction past the 200 day moving average. These have been nasty corrections. The May 2006 correction was very "hairy". The index broke down past lows set in October of 2005.
This index probably has the largest propensity to fall. The current 200 day is 2296.
I would have there are two scenarios here:
1) A bottom has formed now.
OR
2) The bottom has not formed and a likely price target would be somewhere under the 200 day moving average. I would have to say about 6% under the 200 day moving average would be a good place to start. The buy signal being the cross of the 50 and the 20 day moving average.
NYSE
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&b=1&g=0&id=p20342037349
The NYSE follows a predictable pattern. When it has corrected since 2005, it goes right under the 200 day moving average signaling a bottom.
The moving average is right at 8653 and we are now at 8812 meaning 4-6% more downside to go before a bottom can be reached.
The two likely scenarios are
1) a bottom has been reached now
OR
2) 4-6% more to go
There is another doomsday scenario of the index crashing down as I outlined in my previous report, but I dont believe it to be likely.
Conclusion-
1) The NYSE has been the most predictable market the last two years.
2) The NASDAQ experiences radical corrections moving way below the 200 day moving average.
3) The AMEX seems to trade in a world of its own. It corrected twice in 2006 and then there were two other instances where it had corrected to the 50 day during that same time frame. In comparison, the other indexes moved in lockstep with each other.
4) The NYSE and AMEX are most likely to bottom before the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ's bottom will probably be about 1 month after the other's bottom.
5) I am more likely believe we are at a bottom right now. There is simply too much fear in the marketplace. There is definately a trend change taking place from where it started in 2004.
AMEX
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XAX&p=D&b=1&g=0&id=p76317402892
(you will have to cut and paste the link to view as elitetrader messes up the link)
The Amex had two healthy corrections in 2006 versus the Nasdaq and the NYSE which only had one. There were also two-mini corrections in 2006 which extended down to the 50 day moving average.
In 2005, the two Amex corrections never reached to the 200 day moving average, but did extend down past the 50 day moving average.
Recently, the index has corrected from 2179 to 2098. There is a chance that this is the bottom for this index. The other scenario is that the index will correct down to its 200 day moving average at 1997. The doomsday scenario is for it to to break the 200 day moving average.
Two likely scenarios
1) Bottom has formed now
OR
2) Correction will be about 4-5% down from current levels.
The Amex is probably the healthiest index out of the 3. It closed right below its 50 day moving average on Friday.
Nasdaq
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&b=1&g=0&id=p79009284752
Every correction since 2004 has involved a correction past the 200 day moving average. These have been nasty corrections. The May 2006 correction was very "hairy". The index broke down past lows set in October of 2005.
This index probably has the largest propensity to fall. The current 200 day is 2296.
I would have there are two scenarios here:
1) A bottom has formed now.
OR
2) The bottom has not formed and a likely price target would be somewhere under the 200 day moving average. I would have to say about 6% under the 200 day moving average would be a good place to start. The buy signal being the cross of the 50 and the 20 day moving average.
NYSE
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&b=1&g=0&id=p20342037349
The NYSE follows a predictable pattern. When it has corrected since 2005, it goes right under the 200 day moving average signaling a bottom.
The moving average is right at 8653 and we are now at 8812 meaning 4-6% more downside to go before a bottom can be reached.
The two likely scenarios are
1) a bottom has been reached now
OR
2) 4-6% more to go
There is another doomsday scenario of the index crashing down as I outlined in my previous report, but I dont believe it to be likely.
Conclusion-
1) The NYSE has been the most predictable market the last two years.
2) The NASDAQ experiences radical corrections moving way below the 200 day moving average.
3) The AMEX seems to trade in a world of its own. It corrected twice in 2006 and then there were two other instances where it had corrected to the 50 day during that same time frame. In comparison, the other indexes moved in lockstep with each other.
4) The NYSE and AMEX are most likely to bottom before the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ's bottom will probably be about 1 month after the other's bottom.
5) I am more likely believe we are at a bottom right now. There is simply too much fear in the marketplace. There is definately a trend change taking place from where it started in 2004.