Mike's CrystalBall

M

michaelscott

Gather round and I will tell you what I see in the crystalball.

-Today: Domestic indexes failed to go through the lows that were set previously and on weaker volume then before.

-Asia tonight: Indexes failing to go through previous lows.

- ISEE sentiment indicators, occasions when 10-day moving average reached double digits:
2007
3/12- 91
3/9- 90
3/8- 93
3/7- 99

2006
8/22- 98
9/20- 98
9/19- 99
9/18- 96
9/15- 95

2002-
10/1- 99
10/2- 99
10/3- 99
10/8- 99
10/11- 99
10/14- 93
10/15- 94
10/16- 92
10/17- 93
10/18- 91
10/21- 92
10/23- 94
10/24- 94
10/25- 96

- CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio 10 day EMA= 1.24 Times over this EMA in last 2.5 years, none.

- Formations: Cup-handle Target price conservative
Nasdaq= 2700
NYSE= 10592
Amex= 2250

- Max pain theory
Max pain ETF values for March expiration
IWM= 78
IWB= 77
IVV= 138
IYY= 69
IWV= 82

- Ten year yield analysis-
Current yield= 4.49
Fallling yield demonstrates great demand for bonds. Low yields bullish for S&P500 typically. Money will flow back out of bonds to equities.

Conclusion-
We made a bottom. Buy on the dips.

Mike's Total Market Index as of today= 13341
Mike's Projected Total Market Index by year end 2007= 15542
16% gain from current prices.
 
Wow! I dont know about you, but I was sweating.

There was the supreme test of the lows just now. It doesnt matter what index you have up, they all look the same.

Hopefully, this should be the final test of the lows set a week or so ago. Im certain that we have gone below the previous lows at this point. Now we have to see if it bounces.

The puts are flying off the table. Put/call ratio= 1.92. Almost 2 puts out for every call on the market. The ISEE sentiment indicator reading at 70 which is blisteringly low when compared with all time periods up until late 2002.

If this isnt the very bottom of the correction, then the rules have changed once again.

I've been going back through the CBOE historical stats and simply cant find a time point when the put/call ratios were this high.

Im willing to bet there is a lot more "naked shorts" out there now then at anytime in the past. Just a feeling. Lots of Bloombergs "Phantom shares" mired in all those floats.
 
As long as we are making predictions............

........the DOW will continue to correct to the 11600-11700 area.
Then it's rally time.
 
I MUST STEP IN AT THIS TIME AND SHUT DOWN THIS THREAD. THE TERM CHRYSTALBALL, OR ANY DERIVATIVE HAS BEEN RESERVED BY ME RENNICK BY MY ATTORNEY ESQ. DELORES BLASINGAME. IF YOU WISH TO WORK OUT A LICENSE AGREEMENT MEET ME AT PAYPAL.COM.

RENNICK OUT!!!!!:mad:
 
Here is the ISEE #string for the last 8 trading days. There has never been a more bearish string since they first started recording the sentiment#. Even in late 2002, probably the most bearish time in the data, there were not similiar bearish strings of numbers.

In fact, that number 58 is the lowest number in all of recorded history on the ISEE and it could have gone even lower intraday.

The total CBOE options put/call for today can now be placed in the record books. If anyone can find me a day in history where this number went above 1.92, please post it up. Even in the most bearish days of 2001-2002, I cant find a higher number.

The highly bearish sentiment in the put/calls and the ISEE sentiment# has not failed to call a bottom to a market yet.

Im hoping that we will look back at today as a huge buying opportunity. In fact, Im a buyer at these levels.


95
3/13/2007

105
3/12/2007

68
3/9/2007

58
3/8/2007

66
3/7/2007

95
3/6/2007

91
3/5/2007

91
3/2/2007
 
Michael

what is an ISEE please?

Did not get the point - or rather would
like to know how reliable it is.

Thanks
Charly
 
Quote from asap:

double bottom on many indexes a couple of minutes ago. this could be a major turning point.
More...


Is the DAX supposed to be a leading index?
 
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