Midnight rally

Quote from TGM:

some of us caught it coming and going. :))


MacroEvent are you a macro trader? or is it just a screen name for you? You ever overlay a daily chart of the EUR/USD and the S&P? Quite a correlation over the past few years. Look at when the EURO started getting sold after the German numbers this morning ---our stock market did not last long. You all aware of this correlation? Now that I exposed it ---it wont last long ---probably near the end of it's rope.
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no, he just has a short bias.
 
Quote from TGM:

some of us caught it coming and going. :))


MacroEvent are you a macro trader? or is it just a screen name for you? You ever overlay a daily chart of the EUR/USD and the S&P? Quite a correlation over the past few years. Look at when the EURO started getting sold after the German numbers this morning ---our stock market did not last long. You all aware of this correlation? Now that I exposed it ---it wont last long ---probably near the end of it's rope.
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yes i pay a lot of attention to macro economic data, and i watch most of the currencies/commodities/ and several world markets {asia/eu} --- i also read all the Mauldin data. this stuff just interests me so i like to follow it --- the bigger picture.

AYK? - and yes i have been very short from the 12th of September on from things that i watch --- and i will stay of this mindset as we fail to make a new SPX high and have another wave down. in a bigger picture sense all the market is capable of now is frantically treading water in a range that will continue to slope downward until.........we get some real selling. :eek:
 
Quote from MacroEvent:

AYK? --- just wanted to let you know that i am already short now for the "midnight rally" --- 1218.00 now for my first entries. :)
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Are you just playing the fade the midnight rally game?

or do you really believe the market is still in a downtrend and will continue to sell for the rest of the year?


Sure seems like the market is trying to breakout. And I would figure the Santa rally starts now and buys the big boys some year end salvation to a crappy year....

????
 
that is the current "sales job" in the media after our strong multi-day performance. but it will take some catalyst to break our previous SPX high for the year IMO --- so far we do not have one of any significance {what Rove has not yet been indicted :D }.

we will need a major oil run down or a fed pause at the least to breakout from our current years highs. we could make a real nice double top if geopolitical events stay neutral and the corporate earnings picture could re-accelerate into the end of the year --- but this will take near perfect economic news/events going forward. the major snags i still see going forward for the market are;

Oil

Inflation Perceptions

BK laws changes/credit card payment minimums changes

Real Estate market in November and December slowing more

Tough retail Christmas

this all does not even take into account a weak EU economy -- possible big currency swings ahead -- or geopolitical problems that may arrive from world events.


markets can only use "perceptions" of realities to run up so high, then beyond this they need the "realities" to equal or surpass the perceptions --- so far we are operating with perceptions, we need some realities to breakout.
 
Quote from MacroEvent:

that is the current "sales job" in the media after our strong multi-day performance. but it will take some catalyst to break our previous SPX high for the year IMO --- so far we do not have one of any significance {what Rove has not yet been indicted :D }.

we will need a major oil run down or a fed pause at the least to breakout from our current years highs. we could make a real nice double top if geopolitical events stay neutral and the corporate earnings picture could re-accelerate into the end of the year --- but this will take near perfect economic news/events going forward. the major snags i still see going forward for the market are;

Oil

Inflation Perceptions

BK laws changes/credit card payment minimums changes

Real Estate market in November and December slowing more

Tough retail Christmas

this all does not even take into account a weak EU economy -- possible big currency swings ahead -- or geopolitical problems that may arrive from world events.


markets can only use "perceptions" of realities to run up so high, then beyond this they need the "realities" to equal or surpass the perceptions --- so far we are operating with perceptions, we need some realities to breakout.
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I have seen alot of bad news in my time. I have seen stocks sell off tremendously and then always come back. I used to be a perma bear. They Call me Mortimer Doom. But I believe in the PPT. You see as long as I believe in it. I can buy. I agree with your outlook. But My lines tell me we have to hold here and do a little work to set up another down move. My lines also tell me that in Regards to the ER2 and Naz and Transports (the leaders) that before anything goes down. They want to go higher.

Damn the river when it floods. I like your ideas Macro Event. I really do. Mortimer DOOM loves being short and he has caught every break. He has also given a ton of money back by trying to fight rallies----Especially in damn stock market.

I am flat tonight. I was long all day. My models tell me to get long the leaders. Naz and ER2 on any dip. We will see.
 
maybe they are purposely trying to deflate the housing market bubble.... and the market is going to rocket up in anticipation of all that liquidity finding its way into stocks???
 
well the "fade the midnight rally" only made me 6 ticks last night on my first trade {missed fills at 1216.00 :mad: :D } with 1218.00 to 1216.50 and then one new short 1218.00/1218.50 to 1217.00 later in the night. So that was not the most active of nights.

tonight i am back at the fun with a 1223.50 average from the close of the futures {had some covers at 1222.00 so far just a while ago}. maybe tonight the eu market will show a bit more volatility to get more price movement.

the best trade for me prior to the open was a triggered bracket long side entry off the 08:30 news at 1219.75 --- that made up for the slow midnight rally play. i had to hang onto the runners from this trade through the open as i did not get any short signal until 09:44. i could not take this short trade until about 10:00 though as the NYSE TICK was in a buy program mode until then --- once the NYSE TICK popped down below the zero line i was able to enter my short trade.

one other really nice trade today was the opportunity the er2 gave right after the news releases at 08:30. i never bracket trade news with the er2 as it is too hard to manage two separate "bracketed news based entries" at the same time --- the es is enough by itself. the er2 just sat there for almost 7 to 10 seconds after the news it seemed as the es was already triggered and into a long entry ---- it was a very noticeable pause that had me thinking the es was about to turn right back around and sell off, but the es kept climbing. i decided to make a quick manual long entry on the er2 with a 10 lot and then the thing took off like an estes rocket ---- that was my "pure bloody luck" trade for the month. :D
 
Quote from TGM:

I have seen alot of bad news in my time. I have seen stocks sell off tremendously and then always come back. I used to be a perma bear. They Call me Mortimer Doom. But I believe in the PPT. You see as long as I believe in it. I can buy. I agree with your outlook. But My lines tell me we have to hold here and do a little work to set up another down move. My lines also tell me that in Regards to the ER2 and Naz and Transports (the leaders) that before anything goes down. They want to go higher.

Damn the river when it floods. I like your ideas Macro Event. I really do. Mortimer DOOM loves being short and he has caught every break. He has also given a ton of money back by trying to fight rallies----Especially in damn stock market.

I am flat tonight. I was long all day. My models tell me to get long the leaders. Naz and ER2 on any dip. We will see.
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did you notice last night i listed "Oil" first on my list and then today we get a $2.00 run in oil ---- oil is stubborn to the downside when the hedgies keep playing it and the world keeps questioning demand to supply equations.

you don't have to be Mortimer DOOM all the time --- when the market gives a good reason to go long then do just that {long signal mixed with buy program activity} --- this way you do not have to fight the rallies. I am currently using the rallies as new opportunities to take short position trade entries when my signals dictate --- with a bit more position size then usual.

don't fight the rallies ---- use them patiently as a pause to get better pricing for your next justified short signal. also use your long signals to profit from whatever rallies we can get during a higher time frame downtrend from this years highs.
 
Microevent, dear sir, do you ever have a losing trade? Last night the market may have come off a few ticks, yet early in the day it was once again in gap nirvana. I find it quite intriguing how you maintain this second account of yours. The one that always seems to be in the opposite direction of your winning trades. Do you maintain a personal "error account" sir? Is this how every trade is a sure fire winner accompanied by the finest and most excuisite hindsight analysis in the business? Thank you and good night sir.
 
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