Michigan's Covid death numbers

Pekelo

Pekelo

I am just making this thread here instead of politics, because I am curious if their death rate will also going to soar. My guess is that not. It will go up higher a bit, but not like the active case numbers. Those numbers went up 7 fold since mid-February!

For those who missed the news, Michigan's active cases reached the former top, what was way back in November. (as opposed to most states' December). The death rate is surprisingly low right now but we have to wait for the 2-3 weeks lag to pass.

Their 7-day average topped on Nov 20th with 7604 cases per day. Yesterday it was 7609.
But the comparable death numbers are: 124 (20 days later on Dec 10th) and 40 right now.

My guess is that the death moving average may go up to 55-60 2-3 weeks from now, but will not be anywhere close to 124. We shall see, I will keep an eye on it.

Apparently Michigan people don't care anymore although they are slowly overwhelming hospitals.

https://www.reddit.com/r/path%3D%252Fr%252FCoronavirus%252Fcomments%252Fmnu1ee%252F
 
Pekelo said:
I am just making this thread here instead of politics, because I am curious if their death rate will also going to soar. My guess is that not. It will go up higher a bit, but not like the active case numbers. Those numbers went up 7 fold since mid-February!

For those who missed the news, Michigan's active cases reached the former top, what was way back in November. (as opposed to most states' December). The death rate is surprisingly low right now but we have to wait for the 2-3 weeks lag to pass.

Their 7-day average topped on Nov 20th with 7604 cases per day. Yesterday it was 7609.
But the comparable death numbers are: 124 (20 days later on Dec 10th) and 40 right now.

My guess is that the death moving average may go up to 55-60 2-3 weeks from now, but will not be anywhere close to 124. We shall see, I will keep an eye on it.

Apparently Michigan people don't care anymore although they are slowly overwhelming hospitals.

https://www.reddit.com/r/path%3D%252Fr%252FCoronavirus%252Fcomments%252Fmnu1ee%252F
More...

The answer is NO as in the Covid Deaths that typically follow increasing Covid Infections...

Percentage of Covid Deaths will be a lot less than the first wave because Doctors / Nurses are more experience in treating Covid patients that become severely ill plus better treatments and the current Covid infections are hitting younger adults in comparison to last year 2020.

Simply, better survival rates.

States like Michigan need to get their vaccination rates much higher especially targeting the harder hit communities that the Covid variants are targeting. Right now, the Covid variants infections are easily outpacing the vaccination rates.

The above is the good news.

Here's the bad news. Viruses are survival experts...they adapt very fast which is why some diseases requires yearly vaccinations.

This virus via its variants (mutations) are now targeting younger adults. What's next...maybe they'll start targeting children in a way that children become severely ill. :(

wrbtrader
 
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wrbtrader said:
Deaths will be a lot less than the first wave because Doctors / Nurses are more experience in treating Covid patients
More...

Well, not really. Covid death peaked in mid-January when we already knew how to treat it. The reason for the better survival is that the average age in the ICU is 45, as compared to 65 three months ago.. Thus younger people have a better chance to survive.

Also death rate is already up 150% since the bottom (16 death per day) and as I said we still have 2+ weeks to see the true surge top. So if they hit 60, that is still a 270% surge although much less than the 600% case surge.
 
Pekelo said:
Well, not really. Covid death peaked in mid-January when we already knew how to treat it. The reason for the better survival is that the average age in the ICU is 45, as compared to 65 three months ago.. Thus younger people have a better chance to survive.

Also death rate is already up 150% since the bottom (16 death per day) and as I said we still have 2+ weeks to see the true surge top. So if they hit 60, that is still a 270% surge although much less than the 600% case surge.
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After you stated that...it prompt me to look at the recent Covid Deaths of Michigan.

I stand corrected. Michigan is fucked more than I thought.

They really need to jump on this with their vaccinations of the target infection group as in making the vaccines available to those > 40 years of age and bringing the vaccinations to the vulnerable communities.

Michigan-Covid-Variants-Deaths.png


wrbtrader
 
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For comparison, I looked up NJ. Their case numbers were up 50%, but already dropping and their death numbers kept going down, they never increased.

I checked CA and NY but minimal case increase or flat lining and death staying low. So Michigan is truly unique.
 
Pekelo said:
For comparison, I looked up NJ. Their case numbers were up 50%, but already dropping and their death numbers kept going down, they never increased.

I checked CA and NY but minimal case increase or flat lining and death staying low. So Michigan is truly unique.
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Apparently many in Michigan are very concerned.

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“Despite several months of declining trends, we are still at high levels of community transmission and with [the U.K.] variant that is known to be more transmissible, there is a real concern that you could rapidly get into a situation of exponential growth in cases that threatens to overwhelm healthcare systems again,” explained Josh Petrie, a research assistant professor in the Department of Epidemiology at the University of Michigan's School of Public Health....

In addition to the B.1.1.7 variant driving increased transmission, there is a confluence of factors which may be driving the rising metrics, Dr. Tara Smith, Professor of Epidemiology at the Kent State University College of Public Health, told ABC News, beginning with loosening restrictions on eating, entertainment venues, and other businesses, by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's administration in the past few weeks....

“I believe we are also seeing COVID fatigue, along with, in our state, some modest relaxation of the public health guidelines,” said Paneth. “There is clearly an unfortunate trend now for the general public to relax distancing measures and for authorities to relax public health restrictions. This is a real concern in light of the continued evolution of new strains of the COVID virus.”

Further, with more children back in school, and participating in sports programs, school-related COVID-19 cases are increasing in the state, according to state data.

"The largest number of outbreaks are in K-12 school settings at 162, with 54 new outbreaks reported this week," said Callo-Lyon. Children ages 10-19 now have the highest COVID-19 case rate in Michigan, a rate that "is increasing faster than that of other age groups."
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wrbtrader
 
Looks like the death number finally started to catch up with the infection rates. Yesterday it jumped to 123. The next 4-5 days will tell us if it was just a one day anomaly or as expected, max. death follows infection by about 3 weeks. If it stays up, that would bring the 7-day average up to 80 at least. Currently at 53.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/michigan/
 
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I figured that 123 was a data dump or something because the next day's number was only 41. Weekend numbers are usually very low, so the 7-day average should stay low too.
 
Saturday: 76 7-day moving average 53.

Their numbers fluctuate wildly. The daily new cases looks like peaking. Eventually spring will arrive even to Michigan.
 
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