Quote from MajorUrsa:
My question then becomes: how can you make FA estimates for 50 different funds??
And why all long? Isn't it better to have half of them bearish, in case the whole market tanks, as will happen.
Do you feel comfortable putting on bear spreads now? I don't.
What I am hearing for 2007 outlook is falling dollar, neutral markets, rising commodities, rising energy, rising precious metals. I don't trust the analysis but I can'y see bear spreads yet. The last heavy trading i did was in early Jan when oil hit $50 a barrel.
Bear spreads are unusually interesting animals to me and I hope to get into that soon.
For now, take a look at January strikes. I mentioned the possibility of trying to get some tax benefits. In Dec06 and Jan07 I put of some positions for Jan08. This is a experiement because the thought of 50% return that would be taxed at 15% sounds appealing. Finding prospects for 1 year out spreads is not trivial. But I found a few that yielded 45 to 55%. You buy a $5 spread for $3.6, for a 47% gain, let it exercise over a year later for $5, and have a long-term capital gain. Sweet. So, Im thinking about how nice it will be to pay 15% taxes so I told nuggo about it.
He agreed that would be nice, but he points out to me, that that might not be how the IRS views it. I called both of my brokers to clarify , they did not have a clue. Nuggo's contention is that if a spread is exercised, the IRS will see:
example ABC Jan08 40/45 bought @ 3.4:
a long call that originally cost say $9 expire - net loss 9
a short call that cost $5.6 expire - net gain 5.6
total is a long-term capital loss of $340
100 shares of ABC stock bought in Jan08 for say $4000
100 shares of ABC stock sold in Jan08 for 4500
total is a short-term gain of $500
Now this is a nightmare - a short term gain not offset by the long-term loss.
Possible solution: Sell the spread just prior to expiration. Now there should be a net long-term capital gain from the buying and selling of option calls.