Methodology of the DITM Vertical Bull Call Spread

Heh. Vol 1 is "Free"...

And I mean, cummon. You say you visited the option forum on ET for awhile? Didn't you know this "amazing secret method" would be ripped to shreds?

Sorry, man. You seem like a stealth spammer.

Hope I'm wrong.





http://cgi.ebay.com/Smart-Peoples-G...QcategoryZ3784QQcmdZViewItem#ebayphotohosting



The Smart People’s Guide to High Yield Investing, Vol 1.



An incredible new investment strategy that makes VERY HIGH ANNUAL YIELDS a realistic and attainable goal for average folks, like you and me. Investment safety is UNMATCHED when the strategy is properly implemented.



I’m writing this small (but very intense) book for people like me, just average people who have been screwed by our stockbrokers so many times we think it’s normal. Our investments are either losing money or barely staying ahead of inflation. We are not likely to get a pension from any company, so how are we to achieve a comfortable retirement? The President tells us we need self-directed saving plans. Well, we think, that’s just fine – but if the so-called professional investment brokers can’t, or won’t, make our savings grow, how are we to find the time to learn how to become great stock-pickers and investment gurus? We have jobs, families and problems that we need to deal with now!



Think about this hypothetical situation:



You give a broker $400 plus $1.50 commission to “buy” for you a gizmo.

So your cost is exactly $401.50 to buy this gizmo.

Now, six months later the gizmo just disappears, and $500 suddenly appears in your account. Wow, you have made nearly 25% profit in six months, hypothetically of course.



The only thing that would prevent you from collecting the $500 is if the stock price of Gizmo, Inc suddenly lost 25% of its value in one really bad day. (Gizmo, Inc is well known as the largest, most profitable corporation in the whole world, with a market capitalization of 4.6 trillion dollars, and a P/E ratio of 10.)



Read those two previous paragraphs again, and really think about it. I’m saying you can make a 25% profit in six months – that’s 50% per year, Right? And I’m saying that if this gigantically strong company doesn’t loose 25% of its stock price during this six month interval, then you will absolutely make that profit.



So decide right now, would you spend that $401.50 under these hypothetical circumstances or not? If you decide you would not, then stop reading right now. I can’t help you.



Well, you say while wearing a very skeptical expression, “This is the real world, very much NOT hypothetical”. Yes, Ladies and Gentlemen, it is the real world. So, in this real world, what is there about this hypothetical situation that is not real?



Well, the $400 investment is real!

The $1.5 commission is real!

The $500 return and $100 profit is real!

The 6 months is real!



Ah, it is the “perfect” company that is not real. But, folks, the part about the investment being good unless the company loses 25% of it value in one day – that is more real than you can presently imagine. Now, what about these “gizmos”? How can I buy one? Or ten gizmos? Or a hundred gizmos?



That’s what this book is all about.

I hope you enjoy it.



This is an Electronic Book. It will be emailed to you shortly after payment is received. When you receive the book, you will have 10 days to examine the book, and if you are dissatisfied for any reason you simply request a full refund of the purchase price.



This book is based firmly on my real-world experience, not theories. I work with “gizmos” almost everyday.



Who would benefit from this book? Who wouldn’t?

Buying the book is a good start, but of course, actually READING it is what makes this work.

The Maximum risk to try out the strategy is only about 400 bucks.

You can work full time and do this.

You can be a stay-at –home Mom, or Dad, or retiree (like me), or handicapped, or just lazy –but you still have to be SMART and have a computer, and be willing to learn how to use new tools.



This E-book is the first volume of a two-volume set.



Note: a Windows based PC is required. The book is an .exe file. A CD containing the e-book file can be available by email special request to rafpilot77-ebook@yahoo.com at
 
i've sent out a few copies of my document to people who requested it. I haven't taken a penny from anybody on ET, and I never will, as long as I remain a member. This thing is in draft form and I am exposing it to peer review at my peril, and mostly for the novices who are curious about the subject. The path I took, and most of us took, to learn how to use options was difficult, filled with conflicting and confusion information. I don't believe that is necessarily the best way for novices to be exposed to options trading.

When I tell my friends about what I'm doing, they don't have a clue what I'm talking about, but they all understand it in about one-half hour when I explain it to them. My friend nuggo is the first of my friends that actually wanted to learn how to do this, and that is how this document came about.

If anybody finds any dangerously misleading information in the document, or any untruthful statements, post it here.

I'm not proud of everything I wrote, my little GIZMO story was maybe not the best introduction.

For those who want use vertical spreads I hope this thread can offer information on methodology from contributers who want to want to disscuss techniques and helpful information.
 
Quote from MajorUrsa:


My question then becomes: how can you make FA estimates for 50 different funds??
And why all long? Isn't it better to have half of them bearish, in case the whole market tanks, as will happen.

Do you feel comfortable putting on bear spreads now? I don't.
What I am hearing for 2007 outlook is falling dollar, neutral markets, rising commodities, rising energy, rising precious metals. I don't trust the analysis but I can'y see bear spreads yet. The last heavy trading i did was in early Jan when oil hit $50 a barrel.

Bear spreads are unusually interesting animals to me and I hope to get into that soon.

For now, take a look at January strikes. I mentioned the possibility of trying to get some tax benefits. In Dec06 and Jan07 I put of some positions for Jan08. This is a experiement because the thought of 50% return that would be taxed at 15% sounds appealing. Finding prospects for 1 year out spreads is not trivial. But I found a few that yielded 45 to 55%. You buy a $5 spread for $3.6, for a 47% gain, let it exercise over a year later for $5, and have a long-term capital gain. Sweet. So, Im thinking about how nice it will be to pay 15% taxes so I told nuggo about it.

He agreed that would be nice, but he points out to me, that that might not be how the IRS views it. I called both of my brokers to clarify , they did not have a clue. Nuggo's contention is that if a spread is exercised, the IRS will see:

example ABC Jan08 40/45 bought @ 3.4:

a long call that originally cost say $9 expire - net loss 9
a short call that cost $5.6 expire - net gain 5.6
total is a long-term capital loss of $340

100 shares of ABC stock bought in Jan08 for say $4000
100 shares of ABC stock sold in Jan08 for 4500
total is a short-term gain of $500

Now this is a nightmare - a short term gain not offset by the long-term loss.

Possible solution: Sell the spread just prior to expiration. Now there should be a net long-term capital gain from the buying and selling of option calls.
 
lol.. just repackaged Fontanills stuff. deep ITM vertical bull call spread is a covered call like strategy. Makes money when market goes up or somewhat sideways, loses money when market falls.

There......summarized the whole e-book for free ;)
 
URSA - what is FA? Something about position analysis I assume?

Just for fun here is a thought, since you brought up bear spreads.
The Black-Scholes equations are used to calculate the value of options, I gather. Big computers, very smart algorithms, almost god-like.

If they are so smart, do they take into consideration somesort of factor for future expectations of the companies' outlook? Or general market conditions? Logically they must don't you think? How else can they judge the value of an option?

Now delta is a spin-off calculation based on option pricing. And delta is used to help determine the odds of an options resulting gain or loss.

So what if the market expectation for a particular stock is downtrending. A guy would short the stock, right?
But the option pricing just goes along pricing options in the future always higher with increasing time.

If a stock is trending down, for a significant time, and the the may option ATM for that stock is $7, wouldn't you expect the July option to be less? But it never is.

So what is the implication of that apparent anomaly for bear spread option traders? Huh?
 
Quote from yucca_mtn:

URSA - what is FA? Something about position analysis I assume?

Just for fun here is a thought, since you brought up bear spreads.
The Black-Scholes equations are used to calculate the value of options, I gather. Big computers, very smart algorithms, almost god-like.

If they are so smart, do they take into consideration somesort of factor for future expectations of the companies' outlook? Or general market conditions? Logically they must don't you think? How else can they judge the value of an option?

Now delta is a spin-off calculation based on option pricing. And delta is used to help determine the odds of an options resulting gain or loss.

So what if the market expectation for a particular stock is downtrending. A guy would short the stock, right?
But the option pricing just goes along pricing options in the future always higher with increasing time.

If a stock is trending down, for a significant time, and the the may option ATM for that stock is $7, wouldn't you expect the July option to be less? But it never is.

So what is the implication of that apparent anomaly for bear spread option traders? Huh?

Yucca,

Don't talk about stuff you don't understand! Option prices imply a range of prices, never direction!
 
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