Mental Ceilings and self fulfilling prophesies

Quote from damir00:



it is impossible to tell if someone is a good trader merely by looking at their returns. you need to see their actual trades to figure that out. none of us here have any way of knowing if schindler is good or just lucky.

that's all.

you seem to be wanting to read a disparaging tone to my post, sorry, it isn't there.

even if your filters are suggesting it is. ;-)
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No, I'm wanting you to recognize what this thread is about. It isn't about judging whether this or that trader is believable or worth listening to based on the trader's performance. As has been said, even the worst of us have something the best of us can learn. I'm not for a minute suggesting that anyone posting here has more of an agenda than simply interacting with their peers. I'm sorry if you feel that I was projecting that attitude. But as I said at the outset, I am not responsible for what you gain or don't gain from this thread, that includes what you think "I seem to be wanting." Clear as mud?

Bruce
 
Quote from bdixon619:



No, I'm wanting you to recognize what this thread is about. It isn't about judging whether this or that trader is believable or worth listening to based on the trader's performance. As has been said, even the worst of us have something the best of us can learn. I'm not for a minute suggesting that anyone posting here has more of an agenda than simply interacting with their peers. I'm sorry if you feel that I was projecting that attitude. But as I said at the outset, I am not responsible for what you gain or don't gain from this thread, that includes what you think "I seem to be wanting." Clear as mud?

Bruce
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DITTO!
AMEN.

~Scientist
 

This thread is not about

Throwing stones.
Making claims
Bickering
Making cheap points
Erroneous assumptions of compound wealth that far outstrip liquidity.
1 point per day (or any other number come to that)
Who does and does not trade.
Who is a better trader than who.
Being forced to prove things.
Who's returns are better.
What level of returns is magnificent in whoever's opnion.
What is or is not achievable.
Theorising about playing at levels well beyond market saturation.
(and all the rest of the rubbish that has crept into this thread)


It is about

Raising standards
Maxing out returns on the capital employed.
Moving from one level of performance to a slightly higher one.
Constant and never ending improvement.
Dealing with the psychological issues involved in doing that.
And so on and so forth.


IF I had instead started a thread giving a selection of 3 or 4 indicators and a couple of timeframes to work with, with the suggestion that lets create a mechanical system designed to make 5 points per day on average (YES - that means some days more some days less in case anyone wants to argue about what is meant here) I wonder how much argument there would be about that?????

I'll bet that every single contributor and reader would be watching with baited breath greedily looking for the design, so that they can go out and use that system to do just that. Wouldn't they? The only people who wouldn't be doing that are those that already have better, more efficient systems, those that are not trading at all or do not trade that instrument, or who want to know about it so they can be a spoiler to it's efficiency for their own gain.

(Anyone that tells me all this is not true I will absolutely NOT believe or respect ever again - so please don't bother.)

So just because we are not actually designing a system to do this - i.e. use the capital at hand more efficiently and improve returns from where they currently are - but discussing the psychological aspects and more general aspects involved in raising standards to do just exactly that, all of a sudden it turns into an argument with trite points being made.

If I sound sarcastic and cynical is it any wonder...

Regards to all

Natalie
 
Quote from Girlpower:


It is about

Raising standards
Maxing out returns on the capital employed.
Moving from one level of performance to a slightly higher one.
Constant and never ending improvement.
Dealing with the psychological issues involved in doing that.
And so on and so forth.
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I learnt a secret that ET had got a plan for a new announcement below to be released next week. :confused:

"Every thread must start with a mission statement to improve quality." :D

Natalie may be the one knowing the secret few hours ealier than me. :mad:
 
Quote from Girlpower: [ ... ]
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Congratulations. Beautiful post. All that needs to be said. :)

I hope now we can finally get back to the original issue - The topic of this thread.
If there's anymore flaming, I will go and never come back. :eek:

Regards and Compliments,
~The Scientist
 
Quote from Girlpower:

In another thread there is a discussion going on about more or less is trading worth it or is it better to get an MBA and go work in LargeCo.Inc.

The premise is basically that avarage gains from ES in points terms are about 1-1.5 points per day. This is taking into account winning days and losing days, and within the discussion, the premise is also that trading much larger size, the long term avarage falls to below or roughly 1 ES point per day of profitability.

The question/s I am posing for discussion is this.

IF, everyone agrees that the longer term avarage on big size is roughly 1 point per day, how much does the 'belief' that the long term avarage is or is going to be about 1 point per day become a mental ceiling, and as a consequence a self fullfilling prophecy?

Suppose everyone agreed and 'believed' that in fact the number 1 point per day avarage was wrong and it was in fact 2 points per day. Would that then become a new self-fulfilling prophecy over time?

I wonder, how much of this is a consequence of actual market mechanics, and how much is attributable more to the ingrained belief systems of what can and can't be done /or/ is or is not normal and expected?

I would love to hear people's views on this. :)

Best

Natalie
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Talking about points is actually a fallacy, providing maximizing the amount of money we make is our goal in trading, instead of making "points". (including or excluding commissions is making the discussion even murkier).

Regarding the "mental ceiling" issue; I do believe giving specific amounts of money or points a value mark is inhibiting your performance. Setting them too low, and you will become complacent. Setting them too high and you will force things.

Just trying to maximize your income by becoming a better trader should be best imo. Better trader means more income relative to risk (if our goal in trading is maximizing the amount of money we make).

What did help me a lot in the past though is expanding my belief of what is possible by watching other traders.

Quote from Scientist:


Congratulations. Beautiful post. All that needs to be said. :)

I hope now we can finally get back to the original issue - The topic of this thread.
If there's anymore flaming, I will go and never come back. :eek:

Regards and Compliments,
~The Scientist
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Scientist, if you're irritated by some people here, just ignore them and only pay attention to the people of your choosing. Don't want to lose a valuable brother!

Natalie, thanks for maintaining such a nice thread here :)
 
Quote from Scientist:

financial "transparency"
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apparently your filters are as faulty as bdixon's :) i don't recall anybody asking for anybody elses financial nitty grittys.

me, i don't believe a person can trade well unless i see it happen for myself. no amount of posting or theorizing or book writing can ever make up for the lack of a simple demonstration. period.

this has nothing to do with "financial status".
 
Quote from bdixon619:

It isn't about judging whether this or that trader is believable or worth listening to based on the trader's performance
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there is NO OTHER WAY to judge a trader. what we do is all about performance. there is nothing else. and without knowing the performance - or lack of performance - there is no way to judge whether or not the poster is full of sh-t or not. words on chat boards are less than meaningless if there is no verifiable performance to back it up.

you are welcome to believe what you want to believe. it seems pretty clear your filters are set up to accept only one frequency of the reality spectrum.

good luck.
 
Hi Damir,

Perhaps you would care to go back about 6 or 7 posts, read it well, take it in, and then stop trying to score cheap points?

Best regards

Natalie
 
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