Medium Term Trading of SP500 with Cycle Analysis

  • Thread starter Thread starter SPX Blaster
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I've participated in a number of forums, and Elite definitely has the worst haters of any forum I've been to.
 
Real Money said:
This guy is awesome. I would love it if he talked about his methodology, but I understand if that is a secret. Couple questions.

(1) Does your method inform your position sizing, or is that a set amount of your account size?

(2) When you say 'many years', how many years are you looking at? 10, 20 , 30 ???

I would love to have a seasonal edge, like it seems is working for you, but am skeptical. Seems like you would have to have a lot of confidence in the seasonality edge.

Thanks.
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As mentioned before, the cycles are based on certain multiples of lunar months. There are unknown forces at work that seem to affect life on Earth including the buying and selling on freely traded markets. My cycles suggest a strong down move the week of September 15. The Fed meeting is that week. I'm going to short, but it remains to be seen if I'm going to be short upon Fed announcement. It's possible Fed action could disappoint the markets and make any sell off worse.
 
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Here's part of a PM I had with another Elite member that may be interesting to some.


I got a mail advertisement for the book. Wilder said it's "incredibly accurate" which is border line false advertising. So I bought it. I didn't know anything about cycles.

I can make up cycle charts that will work 20 years from now. You see, the cycles repeat over a period of time. The cycle chart I sent you will repeat in the future. Their are multiple time frames that cycles work on. Some very long term like a cycle high/low swing lasting months or even years, to cycles that have about 14 turn points per 24 hour day. The interaction of these different cycle lengths, some cycles moving up and at the same time a different cycle is going down, is what gives the markets the appearance of randomness.
 
I'm reposting these separately as the image of all 3 markets together is not clear. Here is the crude oil cycle chart. I'm looking to short Sep 8/9. Will watch how market moves and try to make a good entry.

Nothing is 100% certain in this. This just shows the higher probability is to the down side.

View attachment 208526
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Now short crude oil. Expecting cycle low due around September 10-12


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SPX Blaster said:
I will be posting my cycle analysis on my blog instead of here. I unblocked all the haters, and they will come out in force. The week of Sep 8 is covered. I will post here about any new analysis on my blog. I have disallowed comments on my blog, so I don't need to deal with that.

https://russellscycles.blogspot.com/
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Oh, I guess I'll keep posting here. Forget the blog.
 
As mentioned, I unblocked the hater's and here at McDonald's, I'm going through this thread and it seems their gone.
 
Well, took a loss on crude. Price is rallying currently. It wasn't a big loss. Maybe tomorrow it head's down.
 
So far, gbpaud short not cooperating. What I'm looking at for the week of Sep. 15 is to look to short stock index. The chart is my analysis expecting down side movement in stock indexes.

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SPX Blaster said:
Hi Sun,
Are you still visiting my thread from time to time? I got trade calls on the forum for the next 2 weeks. All in advance, not lagging like chart indicators.

No, I don't know what price levels will be when I expect my cycle action to occur. That doesn't usually matter.
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Time to time yes.

Cycles last until they don't. How do you determine, if at all, how long they will last?
 
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