Medium Term Trading of SP500 with Cycle Analysis

[Real Money]

This guy is awesome. I would love it if he talked about his methodology, but I understand if that is a secret. Couple questions.

(1) Does your method inform your position sizing, or is that a set amount of your account size?

(2) When you say 'many years', how many years are you looking at? 10, 20 , 30 ???

I would love to have a seasonal edge, like it seems is working for you, but am skeptical. Seems like you would have to have a lot of confidence in the seasonality edge.

Thanks.

 

[SPX Blaster]

This guy is awesome. I would love it if he talked about his methodology, but I understand if that is a secret. Couple questions.

(1) Does your method inform your position sizing, or is that a set amount of your account size?

(2) When you say 'many years', how many years are you looking at? 10, 20 , 30 ???

I would love to have a seasonal edge, like it seems is working for you, but am skeptical. Seems like you would have to have a lot of confidence in the seasonality edge.

Thanks.

Point one. Position size is whatever you want to use. In the past I over leveraged and sometimes it turned out bad. I'm in a test to qualify to trade invester's money which is teaching me discipline in trading. I will fund a live account soon. Point 2. For my cycle analysis, a minimum of ten years of historical data is needed for the shorter cycles. My cycles are based on certain multiples of lunar months. There is a mathmatical reason behind the lunar cycles that I found out that is not recognized by the scientific community. Only a few people know how to do it. Jim Sloman found a flawed version of this in 1983. I learned his method and quickly found out what he was doing wrong. He sold his rights to his method for $1.25 million back in 1983 to a person who then wrote a book about it. I learned the flawed version from the book. I made improvements to it, but the people selling the book and memberships are not interested in what I have to offer.

 

[SPX Blaster]

I did today work on my cycles and am probably going to follow this version for my trading. Follow only 3 markets. You see the red lines near the full moon date of Sep 14 (On SP chart on top)? They show down movement. That is the way the market will move with high probability.

I'm reposting these separately as the image of all 3 markets together is not clear. Here is the crude oil cycle chart. I'm looking to short Sep 8/9. Will watch how market moves and try to make a good entry.

Nothing is 100% certain in this. This just shows the higher probability is to the down side.

 

[SPX Blaster]

I'm going to look at more markets that may show a tradable move for the second half of the week of Sep 8.

 

[SPX Blaster]

I'm going to look at more markets that may show a tradable move for the second half of the week of Sep 8.

I found what to trade for Sep 10/11, to the end of the week. I will look to short GBPAUD.

 

[SPX Blaster]

Quote on cnbc.com.

“You cannot sell the market ahead of the Fed and you cannot sell the market ahead of the trade talks in October,” Steve Grasso, director of institutional sales at Stuart Frankel and a CNBC contributor, told “Power Lunch.” “For now, it’s a bull run.”

Yes you can. I plan on looking for a selling opportunity week of Sep 15. I don't care about the Fed.

 

[SPX Blaster]

Agree average swings are a waste of time. Average anything as to how it relates to the markets are worse than useless - they fool those who think they found something.

IMO cycles are best suited to short term and by that I mean 3-6 swings, not short time amounts like minutes. But have fun.

Hi Sun,
Are you still visiting my thread from time to time? I got trade calls on the forum for the next 2 weeks. All in advance, not lagging like chart indicators.

No, I don't know what price levels will be when I expect my cycle action to occur. That doesn't usually matter.

 

[SPX Blaster]

Just found my future trade for the week of Sep. 22. Do you see it? It does depend on price action at that time as to whether I take the trade.

 

[SPX Blaster]

I'm posting this chart as the ones showing 2 lunar months are kind of dense, and I did a chart covering 1 lunar here. Easier to see.

 

[SPX Blaster]

I will be posting my cycle analysis on my blog instead of here. I unblocked all the haters, and they will come out in force. The week of Sep 8 is covered. I will post here about any new analysis on my blog. I have disallowed comments on my blog, so I don't need to deal with that.

https://russellscycles.blogspot.com/