Medium Term Trading of SP500 with Cycle Analysis

  • Thread starter Thread starter SPX Blaster
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SunTrader said:
Ok so they are your cycles. Not the markets.
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You can always use a calculator and mathematically determine the average timing of highs and lows. These charts include spaces for both Saturday and Sunday that makes it easier to do that. I feel that's just a waste of time.
 
Here's mathematically averaging point 1. Woo Hoo, pt 1 is Sep 6 not 7. The money is just going to be pouring in! LOL. Edit. I failed to make the counts inclusive of Sep 1. So add one day to the mathematical solution.


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SPX Blaster said:
You can always use a calculator and mathematically determine the average timing of highs and lows. These charts include spaces for both Saturday and Sunday that makes it easier to do that. I feel that's just a waste of time.
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Agree average swings are a waste of time. Average anything as to how it relates to the markets are worse than useless - they fool those who think they found something.

IMO cycles are best suited to short term and by that I mean 3-6 swings, not short time amounts like minutes. But have fun.
 
Already looking for a trade the week starting Sep. 1. Looks like gbpusd may be a good short for a few days to start this week.


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Scataphagos said:
IMV... any kind of "cycle" analysis is among the least reliable.

Years ago when Steve Shellins ran the MoniResearch Newsletter, he commented... "those who claim cycle analysis as their primary methodology are the worst performers". (His service tracked ~225 money managers.) Which performers were the best? Those who claimed "Relative Strength and Sector Rotation" to be their methodology.

I'm to the point that as soon as somebody mentions "cycles", I tune out.... 'cause I know they are fishin' in a dry hole.
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NO wonder so many hate TA. DOW is correlated to itself.I seldom use rsi, but relative strength has helped in the past.Never have seen anyone announce a short trade, with OCT-NOV hold target- but that could work, because 3rd year of election cycle tends to trend well, SPY,QQQ.And his cycle chart is DOW, which is correlated to itself.
 
murray t turtle said:
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NO wonder so many hate TA. DOW is correlated to itself.I seldom use rsi, but relative strength has helped in the past.Never have seen anyone announce a short trade, with OCT-NOV hold target- but that could work, because 3rd year of election cycle tends to trend well, SPY,QQQ.And his cycle chart is DOW, which is correlated to itself.
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I may exit this Friday. My shorter term cycles of SP500 have an up move till Sep. 9. After this week, I look to short gbpusd early in the week as you see my cycle analysis of it above. Then, back to SP500 short again.
 
SPX Blaster said:
I may exit this Friday. My shorter term cycles of SP500 have an up move till Sep. 9. After this week, I look to short gbpusd early in the week as you see my cycle analysis of it above. Then, back to SP500 short again.
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I like when the profits ride; unless they try to front run the SEPT sell off in AUG. In that case, could get long.LAST OCT, NOV+ DEC was so polar bear, could be real elephant stampede to the upside this year. BUT TSLA + GE have had so many downtrends, frankly,hard to see any upcycles/upside much for them.
 
SPX Blaster said:
Here is my cycle analysis for the next two months. Looking for SP500 to drop until sometime in October or November. I am short at 2926. A little under water right now. Going to hold this trade for 6 to 12 weeks.
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I cant really see whay possesed you to put the lines where you did?
 
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