Medium Term Trading of SP500 with Cycle Analysis

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Scataphagos said:
IMV... any kind of "cycle" analysis is among the least reliable.

Years ago when Steve Shellins ran the MoniResearch Newsletter, he commented... "those who claim cycle analysis as their primary methodology are the worst performers". (His service tracked ~225 money managers.) Which performers were the best? Those who claimed "Relative Strength and Sector Rotation" to be their methodology.
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Is not Sector Rotation a "cycle" itself?
 
marameo said:
Is not Sector Rotation a "cycle" itself?
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Not in my book. To be a cycle it has to have "regularity" that you can identify.

Sectors will be strong or weak depending upon conditions in their industry or other... that and trading in/out of a sector to take advantage of overbought/oversold.
 
China with retaliatory tariffs. Expect Trump to do the same any time now. There will be no trade deal with Trump as president.
 
Some explanation of what I do. When you look at a chart of any time frame, you see price goes up for a while then down for a while. The timing of these up/down highs and lows are not random. Comparing historical data/charts at specific intervals with multiple series of historical chart data stacked one on top the other, you can see the highs and lows on the charts line up to an imperfect degree, which you can then produce an "average time" of when a high or low occurs into the future. The attachment is an old cycle solution I made that shows the cycle highs and lows are not random with respect to time.
 

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I am willing to do cycle solution requests for markets I have sufficient data for. And it will show high/low turn points into the future that you can use to trade with.

Anybody have a market they want me to do? I can do most all currency pairs, stock index, crude oil, gold.
 
Here is SP500 cycle near term. Moving to #3 low now.
 

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