MCD is in big trouble. May not exist in 5 years
- Thread starter hajimow
- Start date
No I don't.
There has been a theory going around that Chick-Fil-A will be the biggest threat to McDonald's over the next decade or so. Do you actually give a sh*t about it?
Nope, for the same reason as when the post was created.
You want to short weak stocks, not defensive stocks with small drawdowns and moreover making new highs.
Shorting MCD was a bad idea, is a bad idea, will be a bad idea.
You got tons of good short candidates, cf biotech.
CM
Read between the lines. profit for breakfast is much lower than burger. That means that people are buying burgers less. MCD sales has slumped 27% compared to 2007.
You call shorting MCD a bad idea and then call biotech as a good short? biotech is overvalued but if you short biotech your ass might get grilled and delivered to your hands !!
You find a biotech company and see it has -$10 loss in a year and then the stock gone up from $20 to $80 in 3 months and then you get excited and short it and then it goes down to $79 and you smile victoriously and then it goes to $200 on the rumor that their drug that are researching might help cure cancer. Then you would feel the smell of grill from somewhere !!
Just calculate MCD gain in the last 15 months and my gain by selling options and mixing it with my positions.
selling breakfast is the only trick that MCD can hang on. It means no burger. Having 20 customer in a queue buying breakfast won't help MCD. Sales are down 27% from 2007. That is the fact and it is not a sharp decline. It has been continuous.
If you want to make money, you need to take calculated risks.
Biotech was a strong sector during 6 years, but since July, Biotech is in a bear market.
You want to short weakest stocks in a weak sector. Not a strong stock like MCD in a solid sector (consumer discretionary).
So I prefer to short Biotech even if it is volatile, because reward compared to risk is excellent now. I will quote Mark Weinstein :
"Although the cheetah is the fastest animal in the world and can catch any animal on the plains, it will wait until it is absolutely sure it can catch its prey ...it will wait for a baby antelope, and not just any baby antelope, but preferably one that is also sick or lame. Only then, when there is no chance it can lose its prey does it attack. That, to me is the epitome of trading."
CM
I 100% agree with you on biotech. you can search my postings and you will find that I said many months ago bear market will start with biotech and it is overvalued. As you said shorting it is very profitable and riskier than MCD. MCD is in a saturated industry and is like an old dog.