Mathematics of Betting: Odds vs Probability vs RRR

[Frederick Foresight]

Soros is statistical outlier. No one can prove that he was skilfull or lucky. Just an outlier.

I suppose you could say that about anyone. Except how many years has he been a "statistical outlier?" Did you do the math on that one?

 

[loyek590]

I suppose you could say that about anyone. Except how many years has he been a "statistical outlier?" Did you do the math on that one?

it's really obvious in poker. ANYONE can win a WSOP, but if any player makes it to the final table twice, they must be one hell of a player.

 

[game]

I suppose you could say that about anyone. Except how many years has he been a "statistical outlier?" Did you do the math on that one?

It's very interesting.....how any instance of exceptional performance gets defined as a statistical outlier. And not that the definition is itself faulty, but the connotation that accompanies it....that somehow by virtue of being a statistical outlier, the possibility of parsing an approximation of skill from luck is non existent.

Conditional probability thrown out of the window. Inference thrown out of the window. Druckenmiller and PTJ's view of Soros's ability thrown out of the window. All becomes Black and White. Good and Evil. Technical and Fundamental. Concept after concept after concept...tyranny

 

[Sergio77]

I suppose you could say that about anyone. Except how many years has he been a "statistical outlier?" Did you do the math on that one?

Time is not a useful function. Toss thousands of coins and a few of them will make 10, 20 or more heads in a row. Then you will go back try to find a reason for the streak? This is what you do. This is a random world.

 

[Frederick Foresight]

Time is not a function.

You may wish to acquaint yourself with the joint probability of his making outsized returns, essentially year after year and in all kinds of markets, for well over a generation in your reference to "statistical outliers."

By your reckoning, and as a point of reference for comparative purposes, who among the financial trading luminaries would you not consider to be a statistical outlier?

 

[murray t turtle]

Soros is statistical outlier. No one can prove that he was skilfull or lucky. Just an outlier.

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That post was better than your ''random world ' 'comment
You may want to think about what John Henry[trend follow] said; what you call luck I call a small sample.

Sorta like-agree with mr Fred F comment.

I don't agree with mr G Soros religion or lack of it, but Mr Henry is right.Thanks for your comment

 

[lizmerrill]

" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odds

A simple example is that the (statistical) Odds for rolling six with a fair die (one of a pair of dice) are 1 to 5. This is because, if one rolls the die many times, and keeps a tally of the results, one expects 1 six event for every 5 times the die does not show six. For example, if we roll the fair die 600 times, we would very much expect something in the neighborhood of 100 sixes, and 500 of the other five possible outcomes. That is a ratio of 100 to 500, or simply 1 to 5. To express the (statistical) Odds against, the order of the pair is reversed. Hence the Odds against rolling a six with a fair die are 5 to 1. The probability of rolling a six with a fair die is the single number 1/6 or approximately 16.7%.
"
" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_return_ratio
The Risk-Return-Ratio is a measure of return in terms of risk for a specific time period.
"

Shouldn't this read...probability of rolling a 6 with a pair of fair die, 5/36 or 13.8% not 16.7%

 

[OddTrader]

Shouldn't this read...probability of rolling a 6 with a pair of fair die, 5/36 or 13.8% not 16.7%

Could be " The probability of rolling a 7 with a fair die is the single number 1/6 or approximately 16.7%."