Mathematics of Betting: Odds vs Probability vs RRR

Sergio77 said:
What happens if p =0?
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My guess: A non-existing event! lol

" http://visual.ly/what-are-odds

What are the odds that you exist, as you, today? Author Ali Binazir attempts to quantify the probability that you came about and exist as you today and reveals that the odds of you existing are almost zero.
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" http://www.robsworld.org/notime.html

Probability paths: (See illustration at left)
What is this probability tree that I mentioned? 'For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction' The reaction to any action is not the only possible reaction. There are many possible reactions to any action. A probability tree is a map of all possibilities for any given event. A probability path is the path followed down a probability tree in order to reach your current multidimensional position (the 'Now').

Try to envision the probabilities inherent when a coin is flipped. The first node of this probability tree is the point where the coin is flipped. After the coin is flipped three new probabilities (at least three) branch out from the initial node. There are three possibilities with regard to the outcome of the coin flipping (in a simplistic/illustrative sense). Each of these probabilities necessitates the existence/creation of another node. One for 'Heads', one for 'Tails', and one for the less likely result of 'Edge'. "
 
LOL

1. The main theme so far has been about Predictive analytics.

2. Perhaps further insight could be found on the page 108 of Douglas book.
 
Sergio77 said:
"Soros has often claimed that his grasp of the principle of reflexivity is what has given him his "edge""

Posteriori it cannot be accepted. he is looking for justification of his luck or trading boldness. he could have gone broke as well like many other have. He was just lucky.
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Yes, he was lucky. But he also wasn't. Depending on which trade you're referring to. And when he was unlucky, he characteristically exited earlier than when he was lucky. His premise was that moves often continue well beyond the point of reason essentially due to a feedback loop. And if you happen to latch on to the right side of such a move, it behooves you to play it for what it's worth while keeping you eyes wide open.

There is always an element of luck, good or bad, in an environment of uncertainty. It's how you deal with it that counts. And I think Mr. Soros has dealt with it quite well.
 
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OddTrader said:
My guess is first at all, perhaps you are Not allowed to use any computers/calculators!

Now you understand your Odds! lol

PS: Read Chapter 7 The Trader's Edge - Thinking in Probabilities (Trading in the Zone by Douglas)
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I don't need to read any book or use a computer. Anybody with a 7th grade education in math (before the Department of Education started creating gamblers and traders) can look at a roulette table and realize very quickly there are no bets which make sense for anybody but the casino. That's why they don't have a World Series for roulette players. Same goes for any bracket trader.
 
When one considers the Soros record, one is struck by the very low probability that he achieved what he did by luck alone.
 
I don't think Soros achieved everything by luck at all. He took bets others weren't willing to bet on - that's not luck. It's not like he rolled a set of dice on if he'd short the pound or not.
 
piezoe said:
When one considers the Soros record, one is struck by the very low probability that he achieved what he did by luck alone.
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what exactly is the "Soros record" and how does it compare to my mother who has held the S&P 500 since 1987?
 
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