Mathematically Predicting the Future?

Mark,

I'm kinda late boarding this thread...

But it's really nice to have you back on ET. I'm posting again just because you're here!!!

"Your secret admirer" and "Self proclaiming padwan"

(FYI. I asked you for advice intraday trading using tick data for the ES market a while back...

also... I asked you about moving to Chicago from LA, a long time ago... and you gave me valuable advice and some contacts...

That's who I am...)
 
Quote from TSGannGalt:also... I asked you about moving to Chicago from LA, a long time ago... and you gave me valuable advice and some contacts...
That's who I am...)
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kool.. hope all is well with you, i still love chi town.

yea like a big fat whale i surface for air once in a great while. mb
 
back to predicting - i would say that the law of motion theory lends more potential than anything to easily predict future price movement. it is simple and effective as a primer to finding a confidence level to build upon.

mb
 
Quote from MarkBrown:

back to predicting - i would say that the law of motion theory lends more potential than anything to easily predict future price movement. it is simple and effective as a primer to finding a confidence level to build upon.

mb
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Yes. I wouldn't use the term "predicting" but all systems are based on the "assumption" that the specific tendency the system exposes sustains... And... Risk management deals with the impact of when the "assumption" changes.

They're both Math. Considering MATH being used in all levels of "trading", it may be the only viable tool for a System trader, next to Computer Science (algos) if it's not considered as MATH.
 
I do...Use math...
do the trend if above /Below 5 days sma
all these should do well for next 20 to 34 days
dell is a buy these days

Stock Trend
APOL Buy
BBBY Sell
BEAS Sell
CELG Sell
CHKP Sell
CHRW Sell
DELL Buy
FAST Sell
FLEX Buy
GILD Sell
GRMN Buy
IACI Buy
JOYG Sell
LBTYA Buy
MCHP Sell
MNST Buy
PTEN Sell
QCOM Sell
ROST Sell
RYAAY Buy
SIRI Buy
TLAB Buy
UAUA Buy
VMED Buy
WFMI Buy
XLNX Sell
XMSR Buy
XRAY Buy
 
Quote from kalzayani:

I do...Use math...
do the trend if above /Below 5 days sma
all these should do well for next 20 to 34 days
More...
Interesting, but how did you come up with these hard-and-fast numbers:
5
20
34
?
Why not 10, 30, 50 for instance ?

And this smoothing technique:"sma"
Why not EMA, JMA, TRIX, DEMA ?

Also, would these change things over time as the market volatility changed ?

You make this sound so simple.
 
just used Max(High(t)/Close(t-1),Close(t-1)/Low(t))
Daily data

with those nubers into an array
The average-1= a number >0
since change/ day as in the above... % change/day

then days/change = inverse

so u take the 1/(average-1) as your estimated half cycle
the more the volitility
the smaller the cycle
 
days in here are trade days

so calender days = 365/250* trade days

the cycles are on that column

I did not want to fill the page
those coef and stdev of coef

used to do trades
using the close of any day
offset it to your advantage by either dividing
or mutliplying
Say u want to buy apol

take apol close and divide by that coef
1.036041879
that is the estimated next low
if u add 2*stdev to that average
that will get the 5th percentile of the lower prices of the prices

Coef(5th Percentile)=1.036041879+2*0.036125915

gl



Stock Trend High Low Close Cycle Days AVG Coef STD Coef
APOL Buy 48.81 43.54 46.81 28 1.036041879 0.036125915
BBBY Sell 33.28 29.89 32.01 36 1.028254202 0.016544792
BEAS Sell 19.27 19.16 19.2 45 1.022272561 0.030850537
CELG Sell 65.85 62.23 63.56 37 1.027721474 0.022208292
CHKP Sell 24.58 22.01 23.92 40 1.025584911 0.013882118
CHRW Sell 63.09 56.33 62.33 39 1.025943552 0.014948183
DELL Buy 19.99 18.50 19.05 39 1.025645238 0.015977614
FAST Sell 51.07 47.64 48.83 37 1.027675023 0.017606017
 
you are correct to assert that the markets are not random, but the basis of your argument is flawed: random numbers are not proved to be random only when they fit in a normal distribution, otherwise they wouldn't be random.

Quote from Kuran47:

fatrat wrote:

"You have some fundamental misunderstanding of what it is mathematics are doing in the world of trading.

Trading and market outcomes are random variables. All individuals are doing is modeling randomless and assessing likelihood of a certain outcome."

I think YOU have some fundamental misunderstanding of the markets. The markets are not random. Just because it's unpredictable (for the long term) does not mean it's random.

For the markets' movement to be random, it has to conform to the Normal / Gaussian distribution. It does not. There are too many outliers for it to conform to the Normal Distribution. If it can't conform to the Normal Distribution, it can't be random.

...
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dude, why are you quoting yourself???

Quote from MarkBrown:

i guess a perfect trading method would be one which has found a edge which works and is dependable and consistent.

not random, not luck. a mathematical method which can define what the market will do with uncanny accuracy. no excuses of why it didn't work. no words, no explanations of this and that just cold hard facts.

"it's like a trading machine which is mindlessly milling from a solid block of ignorance, something artistic which mankind has not the comprehension to appreciate." mark brown
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:confused: :confused: :confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:
 
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