Mathematically Predicting the Future?
- Thread starter MarkBrown
- Start date
Quote from MarkBrown:
in the old days i could predict the profitability in a position by whether or not i got a good fill. if the fill in the sp pit was quick and good price. the market was about to kill me. if the fill didn't take place then of course the trade: had i gotten it off would have made tons of money.
It seems not too much different on screens now...
http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/1560259752/ref=sib_dp_pt/103-4150277-4463831#reader-link
Lot of good ideas/research in the pages of this book. To make a long story short, answer is generally no.
Lot of good ideas/research in the pages of this book. To make a long story short, answer is generally no.
Just use a monthly bar and have your model spit out next months high and low. thats close to 30 days.
As for un-related stuff used for prediction ask in alt.gann.astro.tinfoilhats
I hear the serious planetary parctioners like to call it "natural law" so people dont thik they are loopy.
ok so what would be the difference between a prediction and an expectancy?
if i have a model and certain criteria is met and i know that in testing that when it does "this something" most likely the market will do something like go up, down or maybe sideways. if it does this with a high degree of probability. what would this be called?
by going to sleep tonight and resting - have i not just expected to wake up else i would not go to sleep ever.
or
tonight - i say to my wife i will see you in the morning because i know without a doubt there will be a tomorrow, at least in my mind? now is that a prediction.
if i tell you that i have observed you and from your traits i know that you will do something like itch your head or pick your nose. have i that power of prediction?
mark brown
i wanna stick around if i can for anyone (some yet to learn) knows i am the cornucopia of trading ideas. hang in there maybe we will get there, wherever that is.
if i have a model and certain criteria is met and i know that in testing that when it does "this something" most likely the market will do something like go up, down or maybe sideways. if it does this with a high degree of probability. what would this be called?
by going to sleep tonight and resting - have i not just expected to wake up else i would not go to sleep ever.
or
tonight - i say to my wife i will see you in the morning because i know without a doubt there will be a tomorrow, at least in my mind? now is that a prediction.
if i tell you that i have observed you and from your traits i know that you will do something like itch your head or pick your nose. have i that power of prediction?
mark brown
i wanna stick around if i can for anyone (some yet to learn) knows i am the cornucopia of trading ideas. hang in there maybe we will get there, wherever that is.
thought i would respond cause i have nothing better to do right now.
Your original question is not the one you ought to be asking at this point.
identify your trading fractal (time frame).
identify your desirable trading frequency during the ebb and flow of the market during the day.
identify the point of change in this ebb and flow where the old trend is ending and the new trend is beginning.
enter now.
hold in this new trend.
reverse from one trend to the next when that special point of change appears again.
notice in the above prediction is not a prerequisite to success nor is it employed.
notice in the above that you are simply keeping up with what's happening now. sometimes the market is a little tricky and requires you to do a couple reversals in short order...mostly this is not the case. You bank profits between reversals.
I told you what you have to do to make money in the market consistently. You simply need to devise a method for doing so...and it has nothing to do with prediction.
It is anticipating the car in front of you changing lanes even though it didn't use a turn signal...you've seen it happen many times before and you simply 'know' what will happen.
Oh.